Cal St. Northridge
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.8#114
Expected Predictive Rating+3.8#112
Pace79.6#8
Improvement+2.7#76

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#148
First Shot+0.7#146
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#165
Layup/Dunks+0.5#162
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#107
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#275
Freethrows+2.0#69
Improvement+2.8#55

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#120
First Shot+1.5#130
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#142
Layups/Dunks+8.3#8
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#29
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#331
Freethrows-4.6#362
Improvement-0.1#191
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.5% 8.6% 5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.1 12.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.7% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round7.5% 8.6% 5.6%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Davis (Away) - 61.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 35 - 47 - 9
Quad 413 - 121 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 106   @ St. Bonaventure L 56-70 36%     0 - 1 -7.4 -16.8 +10.6
  Nov 06, 2024 357   @ Le Moyne W 97-75 90%     1 - 1 +10.7 +6.6 +1.9
  Nov 16, 2024 332   @ Sacramento St. W 79-69 85%     2 - 1 +1.8 +4.3 -2.5
  Nov 24, 2024 290   Utah Tech W 89-79 82%     3 - 1 +3.0 +9.2 -6.5
  Nov 25, 2024 315   Denver W 89-60 87%     4 - 1 +19.8 +10.2 +8.9
  Nov 27, 2024 182   @ Montana L 75-83 56%     4 - 2 -6.6 -6.0 +0.1
  Nov 30, 2024 188   @ Montana St. W 72-69 OT 57%     5 - 2 +4.0 -3.8 +7.6
  Dec 05, 2024 149   UC Riverside L 64-68 68%     5 - 3 0 - 1 -5.9 -11.6 +5.7
  Dec 07, 2024 242   @ Cal Poly W 102-91 68%     6 - 3 1 - 1 +9.1 +10.8 -3.5
  Dec 18, 2024 59   @ USC L 69-90 18%     6 - 4 -8.3 -0.4 -7.5
  Dec 21, 2024 360   Chicago St. W 81-57 96%     7 - 4 +5.7 -6.7 +10.0
  Jan 02, 2025 342   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 95-65 87%     8 - 4 2 - 1 +20.5 +14.9 +4.2
  Jan 04, 2025 222   UC Davis W 73-61 79%     9 - 4 3 - 1 +6.2 -2.1 +7.6
  Jan 09, 2025 85   UC Irvine L 67-77 45%     9 - 5 3 - 2 -5.8 -4.7 -0.4
  Jan 11, 2025 240   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 90-94 67%     9 - 6 3 - 3 -5.8 +8.4 -13.9
  Jan 16, 2025 207   @ Hawaii W 83-60 61%     10 - 6 4 - 3 +23.0 +15.6 +8.5
  Jan 23, 2025 304   Long Beach St. W 86-76 89%     11 - 6 5 - 3 -0.9 +8.1 -8.8
  Jan 25, 2025 54   @ UC San Diego L 54-79 17%     11 - 7 5 - 4 -11.9 -14.4 +3.5
  Jan 30, 2025 145   @ UC Santa Barbara W 78-71 47%     12 - 7 6 - 4 +10.5 +9.0 +1.8
  Feb 01, 2025 240   Cal St. Bakersfield W 88-62 82%     13 - 7 7 - 4 +19.1 +5.1 +12.5
  Feb 06, 2025 342   Cal St. Fullerton W 82-63 94%     14 - 7 8 - 4 +4.4 +1.3 +2.5
  Feb 08, 2025 304   @ Long Beach St. W 81-80 79%     15 - 7 9 - 4 -4.8 +2.7 -7.5
  Feb 15, 2025 242   Cal Poly W 89-85 82%     16 - 7 10 - 4 -3.0 -4.5 +0.8
  Feb 20, 2025 85   @ UC Irvine W 84-72 27%     17 - 7 11 - 4 +21.3 +22.9 -1.3
  Feb 22, 2025 222   @ UC Davis W 75-71 61%    
  Feb 27, 2025 54   UC San Diego L 73-78 33%    
  Mar 01, 2025 145   UC Santa Barbara W 78-74 68%    
  Mar 06, 2025 149   @ UC Riverside L 77-78 47%    
  Mar 08, 2025 207   Hawaii W 78-70 79%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.7 6.0 3.8 11.5 2nd
3rd 0.4 10.4 27.8 17.3 1.4 57.3 3rd
4th 0.3 6.9 15.3 4.9 27.4 4th
5th 0.7 1.7 2.4 5th
6th 0.3 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 1.3 9.1 25.8 34.4 23.3 6.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 15.9% 1.0    0.0 0.4 0.6
15-5 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.0 0.4 0.6



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 6.2% 17.5% 17.5% 11.7 0.4 0.7 0.0 5.1
15-5 23.3% 10.5% 10.5% 12.1 0.2 1.7 0.5 0.0 20.9
14-6 34.4% 7.2% 7.2% 12.4 0.1 1.5 0.8 0.1 31.9
13-7 25.8% 4.5% 4.5% 12.4 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.0 24.6
12-8 9.1% 3.0% 3.0% 12.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.8
11-9 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 13.0 0.0 1.2
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 12.2 0.7 4.7 1.9 0.2 92.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 11.7 33.0 63.3 3.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.0%
Lose Out 0.5%