Air Force
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.3#294
Expected Predictive Rating-13.3#343
Pace61.6#344
Improvement-2.3#286

Offense
Total Offense-4.2#290
First Shot-2.2#242
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#295
Layup/Dunks+0.5#163
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#272
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#158
Freethrows-1.7#282
Improvement-1.3#246

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#258
First Shot-3.1#274
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#182
Layups/Dunks-0.6#198
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#333
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#202
Freethrows-0.2#198
Improvement-1.0#243
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 94.2% 89.3% 100.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fresno St. (Home) - 53.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 50 - 6
Quad 20 - 90 - 15
Quad 31 - 91 - 23
Quad 43 - 54 - 28


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 134   North Alabama L 57-73 28%     0 - 1 -17.2 -11.4 -7.6
  Nov 07, 2024 124   Jacksonville St. W 73-67 26%     1 - 1 +5.5 +6.6 -0.5
  Nov 11, 2024 323   LIU Brooklyn L 54-63 67%     1 - 2 -21.0 -9.9 -12.7
  Nov 15, 2024 140   Belmont L 71-79 28%     1 - 3 -9.4 -0.1 -10.0
  Nov 21, 2024 112   @ California L 69-78 11%     1 - 4 -3.2 +1.0 -4.7
  Nov 24, 2024 350   Mercyhurst W 82-48 78%     2 - 4 +18.6 +17.9 +7.4
  Nov 27, 2024 332   Sacramento St. L 61-63 72%     2 - 5 -15.3 -11.2 -4.3
  Nov 30, 2024 220   @ Wright St. L 57-70 26%     2 - 6 -13.7 -11.6 -3.6
  Dec 02, 2024 171   @ Miami (OH) L 60-73 19%     2 - 7 -10.9 -5.0 -7.6
  Dec 07, 2024 320   Stony Brook W 69-61 58%     3 - 7 -1.4 -10.0 +8.7
  Dec 16, 2024 151   @ Northern Colorado L 76-81 16%     3 - 8 -1.8 +1.0 -2.8
  Dec 21, 2024 49   @ Boise St. L 59-77 4%     3 - 9 0 - 1 -4.5 -2.7 -3.3
  Dec 31, 2024 98   UNLV L 58-77 18%     3 - 10 0 - 2 -16.6 -12.0 -4.7
  Jan 04, 2025 166   Wyoming L 65-70 33%     3 - 11 0 - 3 -7.8 +3.6 -12.3
  Jan 08, 2025 51   @ San Diego St. L 38-67 4%     3 - 12 0 - 4 -15.8 -20.9 +2.8
  Jan 11, 2025 163   San Jose St. L 62-69 33%     3 - 13 0 - 5 -9.7 -5.7 -4.9
  Jan 14, 2025 80   @ Nevada L 62-68 7%     3 - 14 0 - 6 +3.7 +0.1 +3.0
  Jan 17, 2025 254   @ Fresno St. L 65-74 33%     3 - 15 0 - 7 -11.7 -0.4 -12.3
  Jan 22, 2025 51   San Diego St. L 76-77 OT 8%     3 - 16 0 - 8 +7.2 +11.6 -4.5
  Jan 25, 2025 45   Utah St. L 58-87 8%     3 - 17 0 - 9 -20.2 -11.1 -10.6
  Jan 28, 2025 67   @ Colorado St. L 58-79 6%     3 - 18 0 - 10 -10.1 -6.2 -5.6
  Feb 01, 2025 163   @ San Jose St. L 64-75 18%     3 - 19 0 - 11 -8.6 -3.7 -5.8
  Feb 04, 2025 80   Nevada L 60-74 13%     3 - 20 0 - 12 -9.3 -2.8 -8.5
  Feb 08, 2025 38   New Mexico L 53-88 6%     3 - 21 0 - 13 -25.1 -17.8 -4.4
  Feb 11, 2025 98   @ UNLV L 52-77 9%     3 - 22 0 - 14 -17.6 -8.4 -12.7
  Feb 18, 2025 166   @ Wyoming L 62-69 18%     3 - 23 0 - 15 -4.7 -0.1 -5.5
  Feb 22, 2025 254   Fresno St. W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 25, 2025 67   Colorado St. L 61-74 12%    
  Mar 01, 2025 38   @ New Mexico L 61-83 2%    
  Mar 04, 2025 49   Boise St. L 60-76 8%    
  Mar 08, 2025 45   @ Utah St. L 62-83 2%    
Projected Record 4 - 27 1 - 19




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 17.6 9.9 1.2 0.0 28.8 10th
11th 36.9 32.5 1.8 0.0 71.2 11th
Total 36.9 50.2 11.7 1.2 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 1.2% 1.2
2-18 11.7% 11.7
1-19 50.2% 50.2
0-20 36.9% 36.9
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 33.5%