Air Force
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.4#275
Expected Predictive Rating-13.0#339
Pace60.1#354
Improvement+0.1#176

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#275
First Shot-1.9#227
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#292
Layup/Dunks+0.6#151
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#268
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#151
Freethrows-1.7#287
Improvement-0.8#233

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#257
First Shot-2.8#262
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#169
Layups/Dunks-0.5#189
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#330
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#184
Freethrows-0.2#195
Improvement+0.9#136
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 84.6% 66.3% 86.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego St. (Home) - 8.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 5
Quad 21 - 91 - 14
Quad 31 - 92 - 22
Quad 43 - 55 - 27


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 163   North Alabama L 57-73 35%     0 - 1 -18.6 -11.7 -8.7
  Nov 07, 2024 162   Jacksonville St. W 73-67 35%     1 - 1 +3.5 +4.2 -0.2
  Nov 11, 2024 314   LIU Brooklyn L 54-63 69%     1 - 2 -20.4 -11.2 -10.9
  Nov 15, 2024 139   Belmont L 71-79 31%     1 - 3 -9.2 +1.8 -11.8
  Nov 21, 2024 118   @ California L 69-78 13%     1 - 4 -3.5 +0.8 -4.9
  Nov 24, 2024 359   Mercyhurst W 82-48 85%     2 - 4 +16.6 +17.1 +6.2
  Nov 27, 2024 337   Sacramento St. L 61-63 77%     2 - 5 -16.2 -9.9 -6.5
  Nov 30, 2024 177   @ Wright St. L 57-70 21%     2 - 6 -11.1 -10.6 -2.0
  Dec 02, 2024 153   @ Miami (OH) L 60-73 17%     2 - 7 -9.5 -3.9 -7.2
  Dec 07, 2024 320   Stony Brook W 69-61 61%     3 - 7 -1.2 -8.6 +7.5
  Dec 16, 2024 166   @ Northern Colorado L 76-81 20%     3 - 8 -2.4 +0.3 -2.6
  Dec 21, 2024 57   @ Boise St. L 59-77 5%     3 - 9 0 - 1 -5.5 -4.1 -2.9
  Dec 31, 2024 99   UNLV L 58-77 21%     3 - 10 0 - 2 -16.8 -14.2 -2.7
  Jan 04, 2025 186   Wyoming L 65-70 40%     3 - 11 0 - 3 -8.9 +2.0 -11.7
  Jan 08, 2025 47   @ San Diego St. L 38-67 4%     3 - 12 0 - 4 -15.4 -20.8 +3.1
  Jan 11, 2025 160   San Jose St. L 62-69 35%     3 - 13 0 - 5 -9.5 -6.2 -4.2
  Jan 14, 2025 68   @ Nevada L 62-68 6%     3 - 14 0 - 6 +4.9 +0.7 +3.5
  Jan 17, 2025 254   @ Fresno St. L 65-74 35%     3 - 15 0 - 7 -11.5 -0.6 -11.9
  Jan 22, 2025 47   San Diego St. L 55-70 8%    
  Jan 25, 2025 54   Utah St. L 63-77 10%    
  Jan 28, 2025 76   @ Colorado St. L 57-73 6%    
  Feb 01, 2025 160   @ San Jose St. L 62-71 18%    
  Feb 04, 2025 68   Nevada L 58-70 14%    
  Feb 08, 2025 53   New Mexico L 63-77 10%    
  Feb 11, 2025 99   @ UNLV L 58-72 9%    
  Feb 18, 2025 186   @ Wyoming L 60-68 23%    
  Feb 22, 2025 254   Fresno St. W 72-70 57%    
  Feb 25, 2025 76   Colorado St. L 60-71 16%    
  Mar 01, 2025 53   @ New Mexico L 60-80 3%    
  Mar 04, 2025 57   Boise St. L 61-74 11%    
  Mar 08, 2025 54   @ Utah St. L 60-79 3%    
Projected Record 5 - 26 2 - 18




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.4 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 3.5 9th
10th 1.6 7.9 9.8 5.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 25.9 10th
11th 13.4 28.2 20.8 6.6 0.9 0.0 70.0 11th
Total 13.4 29.7 28.8 16.8 7.8 2.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13 0.2% 0.2
6-14 0.7% 0.7
5-15 2.5% 2.5
4-16 7.8% 7.8
3-17 16.8% 16.8
2-18 28.8% 28.8
1-19 29.7% 29.7
0-20 13.4% 13.4
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 12.4%