Air Force
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.7#267
Expected Predictive Rating-11.6#331
Pace58.9#361
Improvement+0.7#137

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#247
First Shot-0.5#187
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#309
Layup/Dunks-1.4#235
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#207
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#126
Freethrows-0.1#185
Improvement-0.3#208

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#265
First Shot-2.2#244
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#245
Layups/Dunks-0.6#189
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#287
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#151
Freethrows-1.1#257
Improvement+1.0#104
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.6
.500 or above 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.2% 5.9% 1.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 47.2% 25.5% 48.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boise St. (Away) - 4.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 21 - 71 - 12
Quad 32 - 93 - 20
Quad 44 - 57 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 193   North Alabama L 57-73 45%     0 - 1 -20.6 -11.5 -10.9
  Nov 07, 2024 173   Jacksonville St. W 73-67 42%     1 - 1 +2.2 +4.3 -1.5
  Nov 11, 2024 337   LIU Brooklyn L 54-63 78%     1 - 2 -22.8 -13.7 -10.8
  Nov 15, 2024 129   Belmont L 71-79 33%     1 - 3 -9.1 +1.7 -11.5
  Nov 21, 2024 120   @ California L 69-78 14%     1 - 4 -3.3 -0.2 -3.7
  Nov 24, 2024 360   Mercyhurst W 82-48 87%     2 - 4 +16.3 +17.0 +6.0
  Nov 27, 2024 329   Sacramento St. L 61-63 76%     2 - 5 -15.0 -10.5 -4.6
  Nov 30, 2024 133   @ Wright St. L 57-70 17%     2 - 6 -8.5 -9.5 -0.6
  Dec 02, 2024 195   @ Miami (OH) L 60-73 25%     2 - 7 -11.6 -3.4 -9.9
  Dec 07, 2024 309   Stony Brook W 69-61 59%     3 - 7 -0.1 -7.0 +6.9
  Dec 16, 2024 192   @ Northern Colorado L 76-81 25%     3 - 8 -3.5 +1.1 -4.6
  Dec 21, 2024 58   @ Boise St. L 57-75 5%    
  Dec 31, 2024 113   UNLV L 62-68 28%    
  Jan 04, 2025 187   Wyoming L 65-66 45%    
  Jan 07, 2025 45   @ San Diego St. L 54-74 3%    
  Jan 11, 2025 185   San Jose St. L 65-67 44%    
  Jan 14, 2025 54   @ Nevada L 55-74 4%    
  Jan 17, 2025 256   @ Fresno St. L 67-70 37%    
  Jan 22, 2025 45   San Diego St. L 57-71 11%    
  Jan 25, 2025 47   Utah St. L 62-75 11%    
  Jan 28, 2025 108   @ Colorado St. L 58-71 12%    
  Feb 01, 2025 185   @ San Jose St. L 62-70 25%    
  Feb 04, 2025 54   Nevada L 58-71 13%    
  Feb 08, 2025 71   New Mexico L 67-78 17%    
  Feb 11, 2025 113   @ UNLV L 59-71 13%    
  Feb 18, 2025 187   @ Wyoming L 62-69 25%    
  Feb 22, 2025 256   Fresno St. W 70-67 59%    
  Feb 25, 2025 108   Colorado St. L 61-68 27%    
  Mar 01, 2025 71   @ New Mexico L 64-81 7%    
  Mar 04, 2025 58   Boise St. L 60-72 14%    
  Mar 08, 2025 47   @ Utah St. L 59-78 4%    
Projected Record 7 - 24 4 - 16




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.5 7th
8th 0.2 1.7 4.0 3.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 10.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 4.6 7.5 4.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 19.3 9th
10th 0.2 3.1 9.1 10.5 5.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 29.3 10th
11th 2.3 7.9 11.5 8.6 3.2 0.5 0.0 33.9 11th
Total 2.3 8.0 14.6 18.6 18.4 15.0 10.3 6.4 3.5 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0%
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.1% 2.4% 2.4% 13.0 0.0 0.1
11-9 0.3% 0.8% 0.8% 15.0 0.0 0.3
10-10 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.8
9-11 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.7
8-12 3.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.5
7-13 6.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.4
6-14 10.3% 10.3
5-15 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.0
4-16 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 18.4
3-17 18.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 18.5
2-18 14.6% 14.6
1-19 8.0% 8.0
0-20 2.3% 2.3
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.1%