Air Force
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.5 #340
Expected Predictive Rating -11.7 #334
Pace 63.4 #324
Improvement -3.1 #315

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #357 D+ D- F D+ B
Defense #250 C- C C C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #98 1.18 #155 +2.3 #101
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #270 0.56 #358 -3.2 #327
Three Pointers 42% #164 0.89 #324 -2.2 #265
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #262 -3.0 #262
Freethrows 17.9 #174 63% #363 11.3 #280
Second Chance 22.3% #352 1.09 #122 0.24 #328
Turnovers 20.5% #356
Total Offense -9.1 #357

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #227 1.25 #293 -0.9 #211
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #148 0.79 #240 -0.7 #234
Three Pointers 42% #162 1.00 #162 +0.1 #177
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #230 -1.5 #231
Freethrows 17.8 #185 72% #192 12.8 #189
Second Chance 30.8% #195 1.04 #173 0.32 #186
Turnovers 15.9% #212
Total Defense -2.4 #250

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #78 -0.4% #127
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.4% #298 3.4% #245
Possession Length 19.8 #357 15.6 #13
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #347 0.19 #251
Improvement -3.0 #334 +0.0 #189

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 94.8% 87.2% 94.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boise St. (Away) - 1.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 4
Quad 20 - 100 - 14
Quad 30 - 91 - 23
Quad 43 - 54 - 28


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 82 @Belmont L 63 - 79 3% -4  0 - 1 -6 -3 A+ C- F -4 B A+ F
 Sat, Nov 8 171 Austin Peay L 54 - 74 24% -10  0 - 2 -24 -20 F D- F -4 F A- A+
 Tue, Nov 11 222 LIU Brooklyn L 72 - 76 32% -0  0 - 3 -11 -3 D C C- -8 D+ C- B-
 Sat, Nov 15 89 Miami (OH) L 61 - 76 9% -10  0 - 4 -12 -10 F D C- -3 D+ B+ B-
 Wed, Nov 19 311 Alabama St. W 66 - 64 51% -2  1 - 4 -10 -9 C- A+ F -0 B- A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 21 257 SIU Edwardsville W 77 - 63 37% +8  2 - 4 +6 +5 D- A+ B- +1 C+ B- C+
 Sun, Nov 23 337 IU Indianapolis W 98 - 85 61% +2  3 - 4 -1 +5 A+ F C- -8 C F C+
 Wed, Nov 26 185 Northern Colorado L 53 - 71 26% -5  3 - 5 -23 -16 F D+ F -9 F A+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 283 South Dakota L 63 - 80 33% -11  3 - 6 -24 -14 F F D- -10 F C- B
 Wed, Dec 3 132 Pacific L 65 - 80 17% -9  3 - 7 -16 +1 C+ B F -19 C- F F
 Sun, Dec 7 194 @Navy L 56 - 61 13% +0  3 - 8 -4 -8 F F C- +4 C+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 46 @San Diego St. L 58 - 81 2% -8  3 - 9 0 - 1 -9 -0 C B F -11 D F B-
 Tue, Dec 30 108 Wyoming L 56 - 68 12% -5  3 - 10 0 - 2 -11 -16 C F F +5 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 114 @UNLV L 39 - 67 6% -15  3 - 11 0 - 3 -22 -28 F F D+ +5 A+ F C
 Tue, Jan 6 39 Utah St. L 62 - 99 3% -20  3 - 12 0 - 4 -27 -4 C C B- -25 C F F
 Sat, Jan 10 51 New Mexico L 49 - 91 5% -21  3 - 13 0 - 5 -34 -17 B F F -17 D B+ D+
 Tue, Jan 13 238 @San Jose St. L 62 - 70 17% -4  3 - 14 0 - 6 -9 -4 D- F F -6 D+ C D+
 Sat, Jan 17 80 Nevada L 66 - 81 8% -10  3 - 15 0 - 7 -11 -4 A+ F F -7 F A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 20 96 @Colorado St. L 52 - 81 4% -17  3 - 16 0 - 8 -21 -17 F F F -6 C A+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 66 @Boise St. L 54 - 77 2%
 Sat, Jan 31 143 Fresno St. L 62 - 71 19%
 Tue, Feb 3 79 @Grand Canyon L 55 - 77 2%
 Sat, Feb 7 46 San Diego St. L 57 - 77 3%
 Tue, Feb 10 96 Colorado St. L 60 - 74 10%
 Sat, Feb 14 143 @Fresno St. L 59 - 74 7%
 Tue, Feb 17 51 @New Mexico L 57 - 82 1%
 Sat, Feb 21 114 UNLV L 65 - 77 13%
 Tue, Feb 24 238 San Jose St. L 64 - 68 35%
 Sat, Feb 28 108 @Wyoming L 59 - 78 4%
 Tue, Mar 3 79 Grand Canyon L 58 - 74 7%
 Sat, Mar 7 80 @Nevada L 56 - 78 2%
Totals 4 - 27 1 - 19 -11 -9 D+ D- F -2 C- C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 2.7 6.2 4.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 14.1 11th
12th 33.5 35.8 13.7 2.5 0.2 0.0 85.7 12th
Total 33.5 38.4 19.8 6.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 1.5% 1.5
3-17 6.5% 6.5
2-18 19.8% 19.8
1-19 38.4% 38.4
0-20 33.5% 33.5
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 32.6%