Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.3#254
Expected Predictive Rating-6.0#267
Pace80.5#5
Improvement+1.9#98

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#278
First Shot-2.4#241
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#277
Layup/Dunks-0.2#196
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#203
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#212
Freethrows-0.4#205
Improvement+4.7#10

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#222
First Shot-2.3#250
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#107
Layups/Dunks-3.2#298
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#298
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#247
Freethrows+3.4#10
Improvement-2.8#320
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.8% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 27.3% 9.0% 28.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Away) - 3.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 60 - 7
Quad 20 - 81 - 15
Quad 31 - 72 - 22
Quad 46 - 28 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 337   Sacramento St. W 64-57 80%     1 - 0 -7.2 -11.5 +4.4
  Nov 13, 2024 165   @ UC Santa Barbara L 86-91 22%     1 - 1 -2.2 +1.9 -3.4
  Nov 16, 2024 234   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 58-74 35%     1 - 2 -17.3 -18.5 +1.8
  Nov 20, 2024 330   Prairie View W 94-83 78%     2 - 2 -2.4 +2.1 -5.8
  Nov 23, 2024 293   @ Long Beach St. W 72-69 48%     3 - 2 -1.9 -6.9 +4.9
  Nov 26, 2024 85   Washington St. L 73-84 13%     3 - 3 -4.3 -6.3 +3.6
  Nov 27, 2024 172   California Baptist L 81-86 2OT 32%     3 - 4 -5.4 -7.5 +2.9
  Dec 04, 2024 47   San Diego St. L 62-84 11%     3 - 5 0 - 1 -13.9 -8.7 -2.9
  Dec 07, 2024 67   @ Santa Clara L 66-81 7%     3 - 6 -3.9 -8.0 +5.4
  Dec 11, 2024 44   @ BYU L 67-95 5%     3 - 7 -13.8 -5.6 -5.9
  Dec 14, 2024 290   San Diego W 73-65 68%     4 - 7 -2.2 -3.7 +1.3
  Dec 21, 2024 172   California Baptist L 69-86 42%     4 - 8 -20.2 -2.7 -18.2
  Dec 28, 2024 99   @ UNLV L 77-87 12%     4 - 9 0 - 2 -2.3 +8.5 -11.0
  Dec 31, 2024 53   New Mexico L 89-103 12%     4 - 10 0 - 3 -6.3 +4.2 -7.7
  Jan 04, 2025 54   @ Utah St. L 83-89 5%     4 - 11 0 - 4 +7.0 +7.3 +0.3
  Jan 07, 2025 76   @ Colorado St. L 64-91 8%     4 - 12 0 - 5 -17.0 -4.6 -11.5
  Jan 11, 2025 68   Nevada L 66-77 OT 16%     4 - 13 0 - 6 -5.6 -8.2 +3.2
  Jan 17, 2025 275   Air Force W 74-65 65%     5 - 13 1 - 6 -0.2 +5.4 -4.6
  Jan 20, 2025 53   @ New Mexico L 73-91 4%    
  Jan 25, 2025 76   Colorado St. L 70-80 19%    
  Jan 28, 2025 186   @ Wyoming L 70-77 26%    
  Feb 01, 2025 57   @ Boise St. L 68-86 5%    
  Feb 04, 2025 160   San Jose St. L 75-78 41%    
  Feb 07, 2025 54   Utah St. L 74-87 12%    
  Feb 11, 2025 68   @ Nevada L 64-80 7%    
  Feb 15, 2025 99   UNLV L 71-78 25%    
  Feb 18, 2025 47   @ San Diego St. L 61-80 4%    
  Feb 22, 2025 275   @ Air Force L 70-72 43%    
  Mar 01, 2025 57   Boise St. L 71-83 14%    
  Mar 04, 2025 186   Wyoming L 73-74 46%    
  Mar 08, 2025 160   @ San Jose St. L 72-80 22%    
Projected Record 8 - 23 4 - 16




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 2.9 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 6.9 8th
9th 0.7 5.3 8.8 4.0 0.9 0.1 19.8 9th
10th 1.6 11.3 22.4 17.2 5.6 0.7 0.0 58.8 10th
11th 4.6 6.0 2.8 0.4 0.0 13.9 11th
Total 6.2 17.3 25.9 23.0 15.4 7.6 3.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0% 0.0
10-10 0.0% 0.0
9-11 0.3% 0.3
8-12 0.8% 0.8
7-13 3.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.4
6-14 7.6% 7.6
5-15 15.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.4
4-16 23.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 23.0
3-17 25.9% 25.9
2-18 17.3% 17.3
1-19 6.2% 6.2
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 5.7%