Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.3#258
Expected Predictive Rating-8.0#299
Pace75.6#24
Improvement+1.0#153

Offense
Total Offense-4.3#289
First Shot-2.7#250
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#275
Layup/Dunks-0.4#195
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#202
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#213
Freethrows-0.5#207
Improvement+2.5#68

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#201
First Shot-1.8#237
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#107
Layups/Dunks-3.0#291
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#291
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#231
Freethrows+3.2#13
Improvement-1.5#263
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 50 - 7
Quad 20 - 80 - 16
Quad 30 - 70 - 23
Quad 46 - 36 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 337   Sacramento St. W 64-57 80%     1 - 0 -7.3 -13.3 +6.1
  Nov 13, 2024 153   @ UC Santa Barbara L 86-91 21%     1 - 1 -1.9 +0.9 -2.1
  Nov 16, 2024 244   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 58-74 37%     1 - 2 -17.8 -19.9 +2.7
  Nov 20, 2024 359   Prairie View W 94-83 89%     2 - 2 -7.7 +0.7 -9.7
  Nov 23, 2024 294   @ Long Beach St. W 72-69 49%     3 - 2 -1.9 -6.3 +4.3
  Nov 26, 2024 120   Washington St. L 73-84 23%     3 - 3 -8.5 -10.7 +3.7
  Nov 27, 2024 162   California Baptist L 81-86 2OT 31%     3 - 4 -5.1 -5.8 +1.6
  Dec 04, 2024 54   San Diego St. L 62-84 11%     3 - 5 0 - 1 -14.0 -9.8 -2.0
  Dec 07, 2024 56   @ Santa Clara L 66-81 6%     3 - 6 -2.1 -6.8 +5.9
  Dec 11, 2024 20   @ BYU L 67-95 2%     3 - 7 -8.8 -5.0 -1.5
  Dec 14, 2024 311   San Diego W 73-65 73%     4 - 7 -3.8 -6.4 +2.4
  Dec 21, 2024 162   California Baptist L 69-86 41%     4 - 8 -19.9 -1.1 -19.6
  Dec 28, 2024 92   @ UNLV L 77-87 11%     4 - 9 0 - 2 -1.7 +11.6 -13.5
  Dec 31, 2024 41   New Mexico L 89-103 9%     4 - 10 0 - 3 -4.2 +5.7 -7.2
  Jan 04, 2025 55   @ Utah St. L 83-89 5%     4 - 11 0 - 4 +7.4 +4.7 +3.2
  Jan 07, 2025 53   @ Colorado St. L 64-91 5%     4 - 12 0 - 5 -13.5 -5.1 -7.5
  Jan 11, 2025 83   Nevada L 66-77 OT 19%     4 - 13 0 - 6 -7.1 -8.9 +2.5
  Jan 17, 2025 300   Air Force W 74-65 70%     5 - 13 1 - 6 -1.7 +5.0 -5.8
  Jan 20, 2025 41   @ New Mexico L 67-95 4%     5 - 14 1 - 7 -12.7 -6.2 -2.4
  Jan 25, 2025 53   Colorado St. L 64-69 11%     5 - 15 1 - 8 +3.0 +2.3 +0.0
  Jan 28, 2025 176   @ Wyoming L 72-83 OT 25%     5 - 16 1 - 9 -9.2 -0.2 -8.7
  Feb 01, 2025 52   @ Boise St. L 60-82 5%     5 - 17 1 - 10 -8.4 -5.0 -4.1
  Feb 04, 2025 157   San Jose St. L 91-94 2OT 39%     5 - 18 1 - 11 -5.5 -2.0 -3.0
  Feb 07, 2025 55   Utah St. L 81-89 11%     5 - 19 1 - 12 -0.2 +8.9 -9.1
  Feb 10, 2025 83   @ Nevada L 69-94 9%     5 - 20 1 - 13 -15.6 +0.6 -16.2
  Feb 15, 2025 92   UNLV L 51-52 22%     5 - 21 1 - 14 +1.8 -14.2 +15.9
  Feb 18, 2025 54   @ San Diego St. L 60-83 5%     5 - 22 1 - 15 -9.5 -1.5 -8.6
  Feb 22, 2025 300   @ Air Force L 69-72 OT 50%     5 - 23 1 - 16 -8.2 -5.3 -2.9
  Mar 01, 2025 52   Boise St. L 61-66 11%     5 - 24 1 - 17 +3.1 +1.5 +0.8
  Mar 04, 2025 176   Wyoming W 62-58 44%     6 - 24 2 - 17 +0.3 +0.2 +0.9
  Mar 08, 2025 157   @ San Jose St. L 68-92 22%     6 - 25 2 - 18 -21.0 -7.2 -12.8
  Mar 12, 2025 83   Nevada L 65-77 13%    
Projected Record 6 - 26 2 - 18




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 100.0 100.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18 100.0% 100.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%
Lose Out 88.4%