IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-3.4	#234
Expected Predictive Rating	-1.9	#227

Pace	76.8	#31
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.3	#277

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.1	#169

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	12.5	12.4	12.9

.500 or above	8.5%	13.8%	4.2%
.500 or above in Conference	7.8%	10.5%	5.6%
Conference Champion	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	24.3%	18.9%	28.8%

First Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
First Round	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Second Round	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Bakersfield (Away) - 45.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 3	0 - 3
Quad 1b	0 - 4	0 - 6
Quad 2	1 - 7	1 - 13
Quad 3	2 - 5	4 - 18
Quad 4	6 - 3	10 - 21

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2024	296	Sacramento St.	W	64-57	73%	1 - 0			-2.9	-9.8	+6.9
Nov 13, 2024	117	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	86-91	18%	1 - 1			+1.1	+2.7	-0.8
Nov 16, 2024	261	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	L	70-71	45%
Nov 20, 2024	345	Prairie View	W	83-71	86%
Nov 23, 2024	250	@ Long Beach St.	L	78-80	42%
Nov 27, 2024	75	Washington St.	L	72-83	16%
Dec 04, 2024	55	San Diego St.	L	64-74	19%
Dec 07, 2024	111	@ Santa Clara	L	72-82	18%
Dec 11, 2024	32	@ BYU	L	68-87	5%
Dec 14, 2024	277	San Diego	W	79-73	69%
Dec 21, 2024	181	California Baptist	W	71-70	52%
Dec 28, 2024	94	@ UNLV	L	67-79	15%
Dec 31, 2024	56	New Mexico	L	81-90	20%
Jan 04, 2025	43	@ Utah St.	L	69-86	7%
Jan 07, 2025	91	@ Colorado St.	L	66-78	15%
Jan 11, 2025	46	Nevada	L	67-77	18%
Jan 17, 2025	286	Air Force	W	71-65	70%
Jan 20, 2025	56	@ New Mexico	L	78-93	9%
Jan 25, 2025	91	Colorado St.	L	69-75	30%
Jan 28, 2025	196	@ Wyoming	L	71-76	35%
Feb 01, 2025	47	@ Boise St.	L	65-81	8%
Feb 04, 2025	251	San Jose St.	W	74-70	63%
Feb 07, 2025	43	Utah St.	L	72-83	17%
Feb 11, 2025	46	@ Nevada	L	64-80	8%
Feb 15, 2025	94	UNLV	L	70-76	31%
Feb 18, 2025	55	@ San Diego St.	L	61-77	10%
Feb 22, 2025	286	@ Air Force	W	69-68	51%
Mar 01, 2025	47	Boise St.	L	68-78	19%
Mar 04, 2025	196	Wyoming	W	74-73	54%
Mar 08, 2025	251	@ San Jose St.	L	71-73	43%
Projected Record						10 - 20	5 - 15

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mountain West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st															0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.1	1st
2nd													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0					0.3	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0							0.6	3rd
4th									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0								1.1	4th
5th									0.0	0.2	0.7	0.9	0.4	0.1									2.3	5th
6th							0.0	0.1	0.6	1.6	1.7	0.7	0.1										4.8	6th
7th						0.1	0.6	2.1	3.5	2.5	0.9	0.1											9.8	7th
8th					0.5	2.8	6.0	6.0	3.4	1.0	0.1												19.7	8th
9th			0.0	1.3	5.8	8.2	5.7	2.3	0.4	0.0													23.9	9th
10th		0.2	2.6	7.0	7.3	3.5	0.9	0.1															21.5	10th
11th	1.3	3.9	5.4	3.6	1.3	0.2	0.0																15.8	11th

Total	1.3	4.1	8.1	11.9	14.8	14.8	13.3	10.6	7.9	5.3	3.6	2.1	1.1	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0					Total

Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2	100.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0
17-3	83.3%	0.0		0.0	0.0
16-4	37.5%	0.0		0.0	0.0
15-5	25.7%	0.0		0.0	0.0
14-6	10.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0
13-7	0.0%
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	0.1%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2	0.0%										0.0			0.0										0.0
17-3	0.0%																	0.0						0.0
16-4	0.0%																0.0		0.0					0.0
15-5	0.1%		17.1%	8.6%	8.6%	10.8										0.0		0.0	0.0					0.1		9.4%
14-6	0.3%		6.3%	5.0%	1.3%	11.2											0.0	0.0		0.0				0.3		1.3%
13-7	0.6%		2.4%	1.8%	0.6%	12.0												0.0	0.0	0.0				0.5		0.6%
12-8	1.1%		2.7%	2.7%		12.0												0.0	0.0	0.0				1.1
11-9	2.1%		1.4%	1.4%		12.6													0.0	0.0	0.0			2.1
10-10	3.6%		0.4%	0.4%		12.8													0.0	0.0	0.0			3.6
9-11	5.3%		0.3%	0.3%		12.8													0.0	0.0	0.0			5.3
8-12	7.9%		0.4%	0.4%		14.4														0.0	0.0	0.0		7.9
7-13	10.6%		0.1%	0.1%		15.0														0.0		0.0	0.0	10.6
6-14	13.3%																							13.3
5-15	14.8%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	14.8
4-16	14.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	14.8
3-17	11.9%																							11.9
2-18	8.1%																							8.1
1-19	4.1%																							4.1
0-20	1.3%																							1.3

Total	100%		0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	12.5					0.0			0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	99.8		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%