North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#163
Expected Predictive Rating-0.7#186
Pace69.0#172
Improvement-0.1#184

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#137
First Shot+1.6#126
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#198
Layup/Dunks+2.9#81
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#73
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#187
Freethrows-3.1#344
Improvement+0.5#149

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#215
First Shot-2.3#251
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#94
Layups/Dunks-2.8#290
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#179
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#241
Freethrows+1.3#93
Improvement-0.6#216
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.5% 15.7% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.8 14.2
.500 or above 98.2% 99.8% 97.1%
.500 or above in Conference 97.9% 99.7% 96.7%
Conference Champion 9.2% 19.5% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round12.5% 15.7% 10.5%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lipscomb (Home) - 38.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 53 - 9
Quad 416 - 319 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 275   @ Air Force W 73-57 65%     1 - 0 +12.3 +7.5 +6.7
  Nov 11, 2024 288   Tennessee Martin W 87-69 83%     2 - 0 +8.0 +8.3 -0.5
  Nov 15, 2024 115   Samford L 96-97 OT 50%     2 - 1 -0.8 +0.9 -1.6
  Nov 18, 2024 2   @ Auburn L 69-102 2%     2 - 2 -7.2 +1.5 -6.8
  Nov 23, 2024 347   Louisiana Monroe W 74-62 87%     3 - 2 +0.0 +3.4 -2.4
  Nov 24, 2024 289   @ Northwestern St. L 58-71 68%     3 - 3 -17.5 -10.8 -8.1
  Dec 01, 2024 130   @ Wofford L 54-74 33%     3 - 4 -15.3 -17.0 +0.9
  Dec 04, 2024 317   Tennessee Tech W 82-59 87%     4 - 4 +11.3 +8.7 +4.1
  Dec 11, 2024 164   @ East Carolina W 74-67 40%     5 - 4 +9.9 +3.4 +6.5
  Dec 19, 2024 279   Charleston Southern W 86-69 82%     6 - 4 +7.6 +12.6 -4.3
  Dec 22, 2024 152   @ Loyola Marymount L 69-85 37%     6 - 5 -12.4 +0.9 -13.6
  Jan 02, 2025 353   Bellarmine W 82-66 93%     7 - 5 1 - 0 -0.2 +6.7 -5.2
  Jan 04, 2025 248   Eastern Kentucky W 88-67 77%     8 - 5 2 - 0 +13.4 +9.7 +3.8
  Jan 09, 2025 168   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 70-75 41%     8 - 6 2 - 1 -2.6 +1.3 -4.1
  Jan 11, 2025 348   @ Stetson W 92-64 82%     9 - 6 3 - 1 +18.6 +21.0 +0.3
  Jan 16, 2025 185   @ Jacksonville L 60-64 44%     9 - 7 3 - 2 -2.3 -8.9 +6.6
  Jan 18, 2025 245   @ North Florida W 90-84 58%     10 - 7 4 - 2 +4.1 +11.2 -7.1
  Jan 23, 2025 91   Lipscomb L 72-75 39%    
  Jan 25, 2025 298   Austin Peay W 74-63 85%    
  Jan 29, 2025 210   @ Queens L 77-78 49%    
  Feb 01, 2025 339   Central Arkansas W 79-65 91%    
  Feb 05, 2025 298   @ Austin Peay W 71-66 67%    
  Feb 08, 2025 349   @ West Georgia W 79-69 81%    
  Feb 13, 2025 245   North Florida W 87-79 77%    
  Feb 15, 2025 185   Jacksonville W 73-69 65%    
  Feb 18, 2025 349   West Georgia W 81-66 92%    
  Feb 20, 2025 91   @ Lipscomb L 69-78 21%    
  Feb 24, 2025 339   @ Central Arkansas W 77-68 78%    
  Feb 26, 2025 210   Queens W 80-75 70%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.8 0.9 9.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 6.3 8.5 1.4 17.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 6.9 11.0 3.3 0.0 22.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 6.1 11.0 4.1 0.2 22.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 6.2 9.0 4.2 0.3 21.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.2 2.0 0.5 0.0 5.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.2 1.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.5 1.5 4.5 9.3 16.8 23.1 22.3 14.9 6.2 0.9 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.9    0.8 0.1
15-3 76.9% 4.8    2.0 2.2 0.6 0.0
14-4 20.2% 3.0    0.4 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0
13-5 2.2% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.2% 9.2 3.2 3.8 1.7 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.9% 25.6% 25.6% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.6
15-3 6.2% 25.0% 25.0% 13.2 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 4.7
14-4 14.9% 19.4% 19.4% 13.6 0.1 1.0 1.5 0.2 12.0
13-5 22.3% 14.3% 14.3% 14.0 0.6 1.8 0.7 0.0 19.1
12-6 23.1% 11.0% 11.0% 14.5 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.1 20.6
11-7 16.8% 7.8% 7.8% 14.6 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.1 15.5
10-8 9.3% 6.5% 6.5% 15.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 8.7
9-9 4.5% 4.2% 4.2% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 4.3
8-10 1.5% 3.3% 3.3% 15.2 0.0 0.0 1.5
7-11 0.5% 0.5
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.5 3.4 0.3 87.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.2 4.5 72.7 22.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%