North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#193
Expected Predictive Rating-0.8#184
Pace69.0#178
Improvement-1.7#284

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#188
First Shot-0.1#175
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#221
Layup/Dunks+1.8#116
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#59
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#167
Freethrows-4.6#357
Improvement-2.3#331

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#195
First Shot-2.8#274
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#49
Layups/Dunks-4.0#323
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#231
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#179
Freethrows+1.2#98
Improvement+0.6#144
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.5% 11.2% 8.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.4 14.8
.500 or above 84.7% 88.3% 70.8%
.500 or above in Conference 83.5% 85.1% 77.6%
Conference Champion 11.1% 12.0% 7.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 0.9%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.8%
First Round10.4% 11.0% 7.7%
Second Round0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charleston Southern (Home) - 79.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 34 - 64 - 8
Quad 414 - 418 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 267   @ Air Force W 73-57 55%     1 - 0 +13.3 +7.4 +7.8
  Nov 11, 2024 327   Tennessee Martin W 87-69 85%     2 - 0 +5.2 +7.5 -2.5
  Nov 15, 2024 109   Samford L 96-97 OT 40%     2 - 1 +0.0 +0.4 -0.1
  Nov 18, 2024 1   @ Auburn L 69-102 1%     2 - 2 -7.3 +1.1 -6.6
  Nov 23, 2024 326   Louisiana Monroe W 74-62 77%     3 - 2 +2.8 +4.9 -1.1
  Nov 24, 2024 296   @ Northwestern St. L 58-71 60%     3 - 3 -17.0 -9.6 -8.8
  Dec 01, 2024 163   @ Wofford L 54-74 34%     3 - 4 -17.4 -17.7 -0.5
  Dec 04, 2024 332   Tennessee Tech W 82-59 86%     4 - 4 +9.7 +7.2 +4.0
  Dec 11, 2024 164   @ East Carolina W 74-67 35%     5 - 4 +9.5 +2.9 +6.7
  Dec 19, 2024 299   Charleston Southern W 77-68 79%    
  Dec 22, 2024 189   @ Loyola Marymount L 68-71 38%    
  Jan 02, 2025 333   Bellarmine W 80-68 87%    
  Jan 04, 2025 218   Eastern Kentucky W 77-73 65%    
  Jan 09, 2025 180   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 66-70 37%    
  Jan 11, 2025 336   @ Stetson W 77-71 72%    
  Jan 16, 2025 204   @ Jacksonville L 69-71 41%    
  Jan 18, 2025 167   @ North Florida L 78-82 36%    
  Jan 23, 2025 107   Lipscomb L 71-74 40%    
  Jan 25, 2025 261   Austin Peay W 69-62 74%    
  Jan 29, 2025 280   @ Queens W 78-76 56%    
  Feb 01, 2025 342   Central Arkansas W 77-64 88%    
  Feb 05, 2025 261   @ Austin Peay W 66-65 54%    
  Feb 08, 2025 348   @ West Georgia W 76-68 75%    
  Feb 13, 2025 167   North Florida W 81-79 57%    
  Feb 15, 2025 204   Jacksonville W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 18, 2025 348   West Georgia W 79-65 89%    
  Feb 20, 2025 107   @ Lipscomb L 68-77 22%    
  Feb 24, 2025 342   @ Central Arkansas W 74-67 73%    
  Feb 26, 2025 280   Queens W 81-73 75%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.2 3.6 2.1 0.7 0.1 11.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.8 4.6 1.5 0.2 15.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.3 6.9 4.7 1.1 0.1 16.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.1 6.8 4.3 0.8 0.0 15.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.5 6.0 3.9 0.6 0.0 13.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.8 3.5 0.6 0.0 10.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.5 2.8 0.6 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 5.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.6 7.5 10.9 13.6 15.0 14.6 12.4 8.9 5.1 2.3 0.7 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
16-2 92.4% 2.1    1.7 0.4 0.0
15-3 69.3% 3.6    2.2 1.2 0.2
14-4 36.0% 3.2    1.2 1.5 0.5 0.1
13-5 9.8% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.1% 11.1 6.0 3.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 37.5% 35.4% 2.1% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.2%
17-1 0.7% 37.8% 37.8% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
16-2 2.3% 31.1% 31.1% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.6
15-3 5.1% 26.5% 26.5% 13.7 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.8
14-4 8.9% 20.1% 20.1% 14.1 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.0 7.1
13-5 12.4% 15.0% 15.0% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.1 10.5
12-6 14.6% 11.7% 11.7% 14.8 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.3 12.9
11-7 15.0% 8.5% 8.5% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 13.7
10-8 13.6% 5.9% 5.9% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 12.8
9-9 10.9% 3.8% 3.8% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 10.5
8-10 7.5% 2.7% 2.7% 15.8 0.0 0.2 7.3
7-11 4.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 4.5
6-12 2.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 2.5
5-13 1.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.2
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.3 3.8 1.6 89.5 0.0%