Samford
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.2#141
Expected Predictive Rating-11.2#321
Pace80.2#13
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#119
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#200
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.4% 24.9% 16.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.6 14.3
.500 or above 79.0% 89.0% 70.2%
.500 or above in Conference 84.3% 89.5% 79.7%
Conference Champion 27.5% 34.3% 21.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.4% 1.2%
First Four1.1% 0.7% 1.4%
First Round20.0% 24.5% 15.9%
Second Round2.4% 3.4% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.9% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Alabama (Away) - 47.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 11 - 3
Quad 34 - 55 - 8
Quad 414 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 183   @ Cornell L 86-88 48%     0 - 1 -0.2 -2.0 +2.1
  Nov 15, 2024 177   @ North Alabama L 80-81 47%    
  Nov 17, 2024 257   Texas Southern W 81-72 80%    
  Nov 19, 2024 27   @ Michigan St. L 72-86 9%    
  Nov 26, 2024 222   North Dakota St. W 83-76 75%    
  Nov 27, 2024 124   Utah Valley W 77-76 55%    
  Nov 29, 2024 349   West Georgia W 88-71 93%    
  Dec 05, 2024 310   @ South Carolina St. W 83-77 70%    
  Dec 08, 2024 215   Austin Peay W 78-71 74%    
  Dec 18, 2024 8   @ Arizona L 76-95 5%    
  Dec 21, 2024 340   @ Alabama A&M W 84-75 79%    
  Jan 01, 2025 292   The Citadel W 79-68 84%    
  Jan 04, 2025 263   @ Western Carolina W 77-74 62%    
  Jan 09, 2025 357   VMI W 96-78 94%    
  Jan 11, 2025 174   UNC Greensboro W 78-73 66%    
  Jan 15, 2025 249   @ Mercer W 80-77 59%    
  Jan 18, 2025 190   East Tennessee St. W 81-75 68%    
  Jan 22, 2025 179   @ Chattanooga L 78-79 47%    
  Jan 25, 2025 178   Wofford W 79-74 67%    
  Jan 29, 2025 148   @ Furman L 79-82 41%    
  Feb 01, 2025 292   @ The Citadel W 76-71 67%    
  Feb 05, 2025 249   Mercer W 83-74 76%    
  Feb 08, 2025 190   @ East Tennessee St. L 78-79 49%    
  Feb 12, 2025 179   Chattanooga W 81-76 66%    
  Feb 15, 2025 178   @ Wofford L 76-77 47%    
  Feb 19, 2025 148   Furman W 82-79 61%    
  Feb 22, 2025 263   Western Carolina W 80-71 78%    
  Feb 27, 2025 357   @ VMI W 93-81 85%    
  Mar 01, 2025 174   @ UNC Greensboro L 75-76 46%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 3.5 6.7 7.1 5.4 2.9 0.9 27.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 4.9 6.4 4.2 1.4 0.2 18.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 5.0 5.5 2.2 0.4 0.0 14.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.3 4.3 1.3 0.1 11.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 3.6 3.6 1.0 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 2.8 3.0 0.7 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 2.1 0.6 0.0 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.6 4.3 6.2 8.5 10.0 11.7 12.7 12.3 11.2 8.5 5.6 2.9 0.9 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 100.0% 2.9    2.9 0.0
16-2 97.3% 5.4    5.0 0.5 0.0
15-3 83.7% 7.1    5.5 1.6 0.1
14-4 59.3% 6.7    3.6 2.6 0.5 0.0
13-5 28.3% 3.5    1.0 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
12-6 7.6% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.5% 27.5 18.9 6.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 66.2% 64.7% 1.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 4.3%
17-1 2.9% 55.2% 54.7% 0.5% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3 1.0%
16-2 5.6% 45.3% 45.3% 12.9 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 3.1
15-3 8.5% 40.4% 40.4% 13.4 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 5.1
14-4 11.2% 30.3% 30.3% 13.8 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.7 0.1 7.8
13-5 12.3% 23.3% 23.3% 14.3 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.9 0.2 9.4
12-6 12.7% 18.7% 18.7% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.4 10.3
11-7 11.7% 13.0% 13.0% 15.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.4 10.2
10-8 10.0% 9.7% 9.7% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 9.0
9-9 8.5% 7.2% 7.2% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 7.9
8-10 6.2% 4.8% 4.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.9
7-11 4.3% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.1
6-12 2.6% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 2.5
5-13 1.5% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 1.4
4-14 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.7
3-15 0.3% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 20.4% 20.4% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 2.5 4.8 5.7 4.3 2.5 79.6 0.0%