Samford
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.9#115
Expected Predictive Rating+6.3#86
Pace75.0#38
Improvement-2.2#282

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#74
First Shot+1.0#144
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#26
Layup/Dunks-1.2#226
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#308
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.5#13
Freethrows-2.9#336
Improvement-3.6#340

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#211
First Shot-0.7#199
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#218
Layups/Dunks-0.1#170
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#134
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#182
Freethrows-1.6#287
Improvement+1.3#114
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.2% 25.8% 18.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.0 13.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.1% 99.8% 98.5%
Conference Champion 33.6% 46.9% 21.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round22.2% 25.8% 18.8%
Second Round2.1% 2.8% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chattanooga (Away) - 48.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 22 - 22 - 4
Quad 38 - 49 - 8
Quad 413 - 122 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 134   @ Cornell L 86-88 44%     0 - 1 +2.5 -1.9 +4.7
  Nov 15, 2024 163   @ North Alabama W 97-96 OT 50%     1 - 1 +3.9 +4.4 -0.7
  Nov 17, 2024 300   Texas Southern W 97-82 89%     2 - 1 +4.5 +15.4 -12.0
  Nov 19, 2024 12   @ Michigan St. L 75-83 7%     2 - 2 +11.9 +11.4 +0.6
  Nov 26, 2024 112   North Dakota St. W 103-98 OT 60%     3 - 2 +5.4 +18.9 -13.8
  Nov 27, 2024 140   Utah Valley W 84-76 66%     4 - 2 +6.8 +5.4 +0.6
  Nov 29, 2024 349   West Georgia W 86-65 94%     5 - 2 +5.7 +6.6 -0.6
  Dec 05, 2024 243   @ South Carolina St. W 88-81 67%     6 - 2 +5.3 +17.5 -12.0
  Dec 08, 2024 298   Austin Peay W 72-47 89%     7 - 2 +14.6 +2.4 +14.2
  Dec 18, 2024 13   @ Arizona L 64-96 7%     7 - 3 -12.3 -0.8 -10.8
  Dec 21, 2024 358   @ Alabama A&M W 97-90 91%     8 - 3 -4.8 +9.1 -14.8
  Jan 01, 2025 352   The Citadel W 86-56 95%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +14.3 +13.5 +3.1
  Jan 04, 2025 342   @ Western Carolina W 88-69 86%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +10.2 +9.6 -0.2
  Jan 09, 2025 327   VMI W 81-68 92%     11 - 3 3 - 0 -0.1 -0.6 +0.1
  Jan 11, 2025 129   UNC Greensboro W 76-69 64%     12 - 3 4 - 0 +6.3 +9.2 -2.2
  Jan 15, 2025 233   @ Mercer W 75-74 66%     13 - 3 5 - 0 -0.3 -0.3 +0.0
  Jan 18, 2025 146   East Tennessee St. L 60-65 67%     13 - 4 5 - 1 -6.6 -12.7 +6.0
  Jan 22, 2025 156   @ Chattanooga L 81-82 48%    
  Jan 25, 2025 130   Wofford W 79-75 64%    
  Jan 29, 2025 151   @ Furman L 75-76 46%    
  Feb 01, 2025 352   @ The Citadel W 80-67 89%    
  Feb 05, 2025 233   Mercer W 85-75 82%    
  Feb 08, 2025 146   @ East Tennessee St. L 77-78 45%    
  Feb 12, 2025 156   Chattanooga W 84-79 70%    
  Feb 15, 2025 130   @ Wofford L 76-78 43%    
  Feb 19, 2025 151   Furman W 78-73 68%    
  Feb 22, 2025 342   Western Carolina W 87-70 95%    
  Feb 27, 2025 327   @ VMI W 84-73 83%    
  Mar 01, 2025 129   @ UNC Greensboro L 73-75 43%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 5.3 11.8 10.8 4.5 0.8 33.6 1st
2nd 0.2 4.8 11.9 6.1 0.7 0.0 23.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.4 10.0 4.2 0.2 16.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 6.6 4.4 0.2 12.2 4th
5th 0.5 3.5 3.8 0.4 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 2.1 0.4 5.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.8 6.7 13.3 19.9 21.5 18.0 11.5 4.5 0.8 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8
16-2 99.6% 4.5    4.2 0.3
15-3 94.0% 10.8    8.5 2.2 0.1
14-4 65.5% 11.8    5.1 5.7 0.9 0.0
13-5 24.5% 5.3    0.6 2.1 1.9 0.7 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 33.6% 33.6 19.2 10.4 3.1 0.9 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.8% 43.8% 43.8% 11.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5
16-2 4.5% 38.9% 38.9% 12.2 0.1 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.8
15-3 11.5% 33.9% 33.9% 12.7 0.0 1.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 7.6
14-4 18.0% 31.3% 31.3% 13.1 1.1 3.1 1.4 0.0 12.4
13-5 21.5% 22.5% 22.5% 13.4 0.0 0.5 2.4 1.8 0.2 16.7
12-6 19.9% 15.8% 15.8% 13.7 0.1 1.2 1.6 0.3 16.7
11-7 13.3% 12.5% 12.5% 13.8 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.2 11.7
10-8 6.7% 9.3% 9.3% 14.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.1
9-9 2.8% 7.5% 7.5% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.6
8-10 0.7% 7.6% 7.6% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.6
7-11 0.2% 0.2
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 22.2% 22.2% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.3 4.3 9.8 6.8 0.9 0.0 77.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 11.5 2.9 48.6 45.7 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%