Samford
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.0#109
Expected Predictive Rating+7.6#85
Pace79.9#10
Improvement+1.7#68

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#51
First Shot+2.6#102
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#34
Layup/Dunks-0.1#188
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#317
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.8#13
Freethrows-2.5#315
Improvement+1.8#51

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#220
First Shot-0.1#171
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#293
Layups/Dunks-1.5#231
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#122
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#120
Freethrows-1.0#255
Improvement+0.0#192
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.6% 37.9% 29.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.1 12.9
.500 or above 99.5% 99.9% 99.5%
.500 or above in Conference 96.8% 98.3% 96.6%
Conference Champion 43.5% 53.6% 42.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round30.6% 37.9% 29.7%
Second Round4.9% 8.2% 4.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.8% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arizona (Away) - 10.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 37 - 37 - 7
Quad 415 - 223 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 121   @ Cornell L 86-88 44%     0 - 1 +3.6 -0.5 +4.5
  Nov 15, 2024 193   @ North Alabama W 97-96 OT 60%     1 - 1 +2.4 +4.9 -2.6
  Nov 17, 2024 300   Texas Southern W 97-82 91%     2 - 1 +4.5 +12.2 -8.8
  Nov 19, 2024 14   @ Michigan St. L 75-83 10%     2 - 2 +10.3 +11.0 -0.6
  Nov 26, 2024 131   North Dakota St. W 103-98 OT 69%     3 - 2 +3.8 +18.9 -15.5
  Nov 27, 2024 165   Utah Valley W 84-76 76%     4 - 2 +4.5 +3.5 +0.3
  Nov 29, 2024 348   West Georgia W 86-65 95%     5 - 2 +5.9 +7.1 -0.9
  Dec 05, 2024 262   @ South Carolina St. W 88-81 74%     6 - 2 +4.4 +17.0 -12.3
  Dec 08, 2024 261   Austin Peay W 72-47 88%     7 - 2 +16.5 +3.4 +15.1
  Dec 18, 2024 21   @ Arizona L 81-94 10%    
  Dec 21, 2024 361   @ Alabama A&M W 92-76 93%    
  Jan 01, 2025 345   The Citadel W 87-68 96%    
  Jan 04, 2025 308   @ Western Carolina W 87-78 80%    
  Jan 09, 2025 350   VMI W 92-73 96%    
  Jan 11, 2025 157   UNC Greensboro W 80-73 74%    
  Jan 15, 2025 229   @ Mercer W 86-81 66%    
  Jan 18, 2025 147   East Tennessee St. W 83-77 72%    
  Jan 22, 2025 178   @ Chattanooga W 84-82 57%    
  Jan 25, 2025 163   Wofford W 83-76 75%    
  Jan 29, 2025 126   @ Furman L 78-79 45%    
  Feb 01, 2025 345   @ The Citadel W 84-71 87%    
  Feb 05, 2025 229   Mercer W 89-78 83%    
  Feb 08, 2025 147   @ East Tennessee St. W 81-80 51%    
  Feb 12, 2025 178   Chattanooga W 87-79 76%    
  Feb 15, 2025 163   @ Wofford W 80-79 55%    
  Feb 19, 2025 126   Furman W 81-76 66%    
  Feb 22, 2025 308   Western Carolina W 90-75 91%    
  Feb 27, 2025 350   @ VMI W 89-76 88%    
  Mar 01, 2025 157   @ UNC Greensboro W 77-76 53%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 4.4 10.3 12.3 9.6 4.9 1.3 43.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.9 8.7 6.1 1.7 0.2 22.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.7 6.2 3.0 0.4 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.3 1.8 0.1 0.0 9.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.7 1.3 0.1 5.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 0.8 0.0 3.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.7 6.5 10.0 13.7 16.2 16.8 13.9 9.8 4.9 1.3 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
17-1 100.0% 4.9    4.8 0.0
16-2 98.3% 9.6    8.9 0.7
15-3 88.1% 12.3    9.4 2.7 0.1
14-4 61.5% 10.3    5.3 4.3 0.8 0.0
13-5 27.3% 4.4    1.1 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.0
12-6 5.2% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 43.5% 43.5 30.8 10.0 2.3 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.3% 60.0% 59.4% 0.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.5 1.6%
17-1 4.9% 54.2% 54.1% 0.1% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 2.2 0.2%
16-2 9.8% 47.3% 47.3% 12.2 0.0 0.3 3.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 5.1
15-3 13.9% 42.8% 42.8% 12.6 0.1 2.9 2.6 0.4 0.0 8.0
14-4 16.8% 34.6% 34.6% 12.8 0.0 1.8 3.1 0.9 0.0 11.0
13-5 16.2% 27.5% 27.5% 13.2 0.0 0.7 2.4 1.3 0.1 11.8
12-6 13.7% 21.5% 21.5% 13.4 0.3 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 10.8
11-7 10.0% 17.6% 17.6% 13.7 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 8.2
10-8 6.5% 14.5% 14.5% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 5.6
9-9 3.7% 11.8% 11.8% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 3.3
8-10 1.9% 7.8% 7.8% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.8
7-11 0.8% 5.5% 5.5% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
6-12 0.3% 4.7% 4.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.1% 1.6% 1.6% 15.0 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 30.6% 30.6% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 10.8 11.9 5.3 1.0 0.0 69.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 8.5 3.5 4.7 12.8 11.6 15.1 12.8 18.6 15.1 5.8