Samford
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.5#182
Expected Predictive Rating-6.4#326
Pace75.5#30
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#122
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#271
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.4% 13.3% 7.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.1 14.7
.500 or above 59.6% 64.1% 34.7%
.500 or above in Conference 71.3% 73.9% 56.9%
Conference Champion 15.4% 16.8% 7.7%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 3.1% 6.9%
First Four1.1% 1.1% 1.5%
First Round12.5% 13.5% 7.2%
Second Round0.8% 0.9% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina St. (Home) - 84.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 64 - 10
Quad 412 - 516 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 111   @ Tulane L 72-85 22%     0 - 1 -6.4 +6.2 -13.6
  Nov 07, 2025 324   South Carolina St. W 83-72 85%    
  Nov 12, 2025 296   @ Texas Southern W 79-76 61%    
  Nov 14, 2025 15   @ Arkansas L 69-91 2%    
  Nov 16, 2025 360   @ Central Arkansas W 80-70 81%    
  Nov 19, 2025 177   Florida Gulf Coast W 75-72 60%    
  Nov 21, 2025 135   @ New Mexico St. L 70-76 30%    
  Nov 25, 2025 311   Georgia St. W 82-75 73%    
  Nov 26, 2025 118   Utah Valley L 74-78 35%    
  Dec 05, 2025 57   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 70-84 11%    
  Dec 07, 2025 159   Cornell W 85-83 57%    
  Jan 01, 2026 284   @ VMI W 78-76 57%    
  Jan 03, 2026 229   @ UNC Greensboro L 71-72 47%    
  Jan 07, 2026 270   Western Carolina W 83-76 73%    
  Jan 10, 2026 137   @ Chattanooga L 75-81 31%    
  Jan 14, 2026 165   Furman W 78-76 57%    
  Jan 17, 2026 148   East Tennessee St. W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 21, 2026 231   @ Wofford L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 24, 2026 137   Chattanooga W 78-77 51%    
  Jan 29, 2026 165   @ Furman L 75-79 37%    
  Jan 31, 2026 270   @ Western Carolina W 80-79 54%    
  Feb 05, 2026 345   The Citadel W 80-67 86%    
  Feb 07, 2026 242   Mercer W 82-76 69%    
  Feb 11, 2026 231   Wofford W 75-70 68%    
  Feb 14, 2026 148   @ East Tennessee St. L 71-76 35%    
  Feb 19, 2026 345   @ The Citadel W 77-70 71%    
  Feb 21, 2026 242   @ Mercer L 79-80 49%    
  Feb 26, 2026 284   VMI W 81-73 74%    
  Feb 28, 2026 229   UNC Greensboro W 74-69 67%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 2.6 4.0 4.0 2.5 1.1 0.3 15.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.3 4.9 3.0 0.9 0.1 14.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 5.1 4.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 14.4 3rd
4th 0.2 2.2 5.4 4.2 1.1 0.1 13.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.2 3.5 0.8 0.1 11.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.4 3.1 0.5 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.2 2.5 0.5 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 6.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.3 5.3 7.1 9.3 11.2 11.7 11.5 11.0 9.4 7.4 5.0 2.6 1.1 0.3 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
16-2 96.3% 2.5    2.2 0.3
15-3 81.5% 4.0    3.1 0.9 0.1
14-4 54.2% 4.0    2.1 1.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 27.5% 2.6    0.8 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 6.8% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.4% 15.4 9.8 4.2 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 58.2% 58.2% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.1% 47.3% 46.8% 0.5% 12.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.8%
16-2 2.6% 42.9% 42.9% 12.9 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.5
15-3 5.0% 34.5% 34.5% 13.3 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.2
14-4 7.4% 26.4% 26.4% 13.7 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.0 5.4
13-5 9.4% 20.5% 20.5% 14.4 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.1 7.5
12-6 11.0% 16.2% 16.2% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.3 9.2
11-7 11.5% 11.1% 11.1% 16.8 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 10.3
10-8 11.7% 7.5% 7.5% 17.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 10.8
9-9 11.2% 5.5% 5.5% 18.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 10.6
8-10 9.3% 2.8% 2.8% 17.4 0.0 0.3 9.1
7-11 7.1% 1.7% 1.7% 18.0 0.1 7.0
6-12 5.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.3
5-13 3.3% 0.6% 0.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 3.3
4-14 2.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.0
3-15 1.0% 1.0
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 12.4% 12.4% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.8 3.2 3.1 2.4 87.6 0.0%