Samford
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.1#231
Expected Predictive Rating-3.2#216
Pace68.4#211
Improvement-0.1#198

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#188
First Shot-2.3#240
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#97
Layup/Dunks-3.0#280
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#205
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#114
Freethrows-0.9#231
Improvement-1.8#316

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#274
First Shot-5.0#334
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#74
Layups/Dunks-2.2#260
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#330
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#211
Freethrows+0.6#143
Improvement+1.7#55
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.7% 8.0% 5.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.4
.500 or above 47.0% 61.3% 35.3%
.500 or above in Conference 66.7% 72.0% 62.2%
Conference Champion 5.8% 7.3% 4.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 1.4% 2.1%
First Four1.4% 1.1% 1.6%
First Round6.0% 7.3% 5.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cornell (Home) - 45.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 62 - 11
Quad 412 - 515 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 187 @Tulane L 72-85 30%     0 - 1 -11.7 +2.4 -15.1
  Fri, Nov 7 349 South Carolina St. W 82-72 86%     1 - 1 -5.5 +0.6 -6.3
  Wed, Nov 12 305 @Texas Southern W 93-90 OT 54%     2 - 1 -2.1 +10.0 -12.4
  Fri, Nov 14 20 @Arkansas L 75-79 3%     2 - 2 +14.2 +9.0 +5.3
  Sun, Nov 16 279 @Central Arkansas W 84-77 OT 46%     3 - 2 +3.8 +5.5 -2.1
  Wed, Nov 19 174 Florida Gulf Coast L 62-77 50%     3 - 3 -19.2 -13.7 -5.7
  Fri, Nov 21 127 @New Mexico St. L 72-81 19%     3 - 4 -3.7 +10.9 -15.7
  Tue, Nov 25 338 Georgia St. W 78-63 75%     4 - 4 +3.9 +2.7 +1.2
  Wed, Nov 26 83 Utah Valley L 45-89 16%     4 - 5 -37.4 -25.4 -10.0
  Fri, Dec 5 42 @Virginia Commonwealth L 57-83 5%     4 - 6 -11.4 -7.1 -4.2
  Sun, Dec 7 150 Cornell L 83-84 45%    
  Thu, Jan 1 341 @VMI W 77-73 66%    
  Sat, Jan 3 281 @UNC Greensboro L 74-75 48%    
  Wed, Jan 7 289 Western Carolina W 79-73 72%    
  Sat, Jan 10 222 @Chattanooga L 71-74 38%    
  Wed, Jan 14 148 Furman L 73-75 44%    
  Sat, Jan 17 117 East Tennessee St. L 72-76 35%    
  Wed, Jan 21 247 @Wofford L 73-75 42%    
  Sat, Jan 24 222 Chattanooga W 74-71 60%    
  Thu, Jan 29 148 @Furman L 70-78 25%    
  Sat, Jan 31 289 @Western Carolina W 76-75 50%    
  Thu, Feb 5 363 The Citadel W 80-66 89%    
  Sat, Feb 7 194 Mercer W 79-78 54%    
  Wed, Feb 11 247 Wofford W 76-72 63%    
  Sat, Feb 14 117 @East Tennessee St. L 69-79 18%    
  Thu, Feb 19 363 @The Citadel W 77-69 76%    
  Sat, Feb 21 194 @Mercer L 76-81 33%    
  Thu, Feb 26 341 VMI W 80-70 82%    
  Sat, Feb 28 281 UNC Greensboro W 77-72 69%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.9 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 5.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 3.4 3.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 10.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.0 5.9 5.2 1.7 0.1 0.0 15.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.4 6.7 5.5 1.3 0.1 16.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.4 6.6 5.1 1.0 0.1 15.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.8 4.5 0.8 0.0 13.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.5 3.4 0.7 0.0 10.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.1 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.4 6.3 9.1 12.2 14.3 14.7 13.6 10.3 7.0 3.9 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 95.8% 0.7    0.6 0.1
15-3 77.9% 1.5    1.0 0.5 0.0
14-4 48.4% 1.9    0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 17.5% 1.2    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1
12-6 2.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.8% 5.8 3.1 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 25.5% 25.5% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.7% 27.7% 27.7% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
15-3 2.0% 23.2% 23.2% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.5
14-4 3.9% 20.2% 20.2% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 3.1
13-5 7.0% 15.2% 15.2% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 5.9
12-6 10.3% 11.4% 11.4% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.4 9.1
11-7 13.6% 8.1% 8.1% 15.5 0.0 0.5 0.6 12.5
10-8 14.7% 5.4% 5.4% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 13.9
9-9 14.3% 4.1% 4.1% 15.9 0.1 0.5 13.7
8-10 12.2% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.3 11.9
7-11 9.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 9.0
6-12 6.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 6.2
5-13 3.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.4
4-14 1.5% 1.5
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.6 2.9 93.3 0.0%