Preseason Rankings
Southern
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
125 Chattanooga 23.7%   14   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 12 - 6 +2.1      +3.1 91 -1.0 197 66.5 218 0.0 1 0.0 1
133 Furman 22.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 10 12 - 6 +1.8      +2.1 112 -0.3 174 64.9 269 0.0 1 0.0 1
152 East Tennessee St. 16.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 7 +0.2      -0.3 170 +0.6 143 63.7 294 0.0 1 0.0 1
166 Samford 12.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 8 -0.9      +1.3 127 -2.2 248 75.5 24 0.0 1 0.0 1
206 Wofford 8.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 9 - 9 -2.6      -0.6 183 -2.0 241 61.8 335 0.0 1 0.0 1
225 UNC Greensboro 6.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 9 -3.5      -2.9 257 -0.6 183 61.6 338 0.0 1 0.0 1
248 Mercer 4.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 8 - 10 -4.8      -3.4 272 -1.4 215 75.7 23 0.0 1 0.0 1
273 Western Carolina 3.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 7 - 11 -6.1      -3.6 279 -2.5 261 74.5 41 0.0 1 0.0 1
296 VMI 2.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 7 - 11 -7.5      -3.7 283 -3.7 295 69.6 131 0.0 1 0.0 1
342 The Citadel 0.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 21 4 - 14 -11.5      -5.9 332 -5.6 338 62.8 316 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Chattanooga 3.0 31.7 20.6 15.0 11.1 7.9 5.7 4.0 2.5 1.3 0.4
Furman 3.1 29.2 19.7 15.2 11.5 8.6 6.2 4.4 2.9 1.6 0.5
East Tennessee St. 3.7 20.7 18.1 15.2 13.3 10.6 8.1 6.3 4.1 2.5 1.1
Samford 4.2 14.9 15.2 14.7 13.6 11.9 10.3 8.0 5.9 3.8 1.7
Wofford 4.9 9.2 11.0 12.4 12.9 12.7 12.4 10.7 9.0 6.5 3.2
UNC Greensboro 5.3 6.8 9.0 10.6 12.7 13.4 13.1 12.0 10.1 8.0 4.4
Mercer 5.9 4.7 6.8 8.6 10.2 12.2 13.0 13.6 13.2 11.2 6.5
Western Carolina 6.5 2.9 4.8 6.5 8.4 10.8 11.8 14.5 15.6 14.4 10.2
VMI 7.0 1.7 3.1 4.9 6.9 8.8 10.9 14.1 16.7 18.8 14.2
The Citadel 8.5 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.2 3.5 5.8 9.0 13.8 22.2 41.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Chattanooga 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.4 4.7 6.7 8.7 10.9 12.1 12.9 12.2 10.7 7.8 4.1 1.5
Furman 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.4 3.9 5.0 7.5 9.3 10.6 12.2 12.4 11.7 9.8 7.4 3.9 1.3
East Tennessee St. 11 - 7 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.5 5.3 7.3 9.0 10.9 11.7 11.7 11.4 9.9 7.0 4.8 2.2 0.8
Samford 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.3 5.0 7.2 9.0 10.0 11.5 11.7 11.2 9.7 7.8 5.2 3.0 1.5 0.3
Wofford 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.6 5.5 7.4 9.5 10.5 11.3 11.2 10.6 9.1 7.2 5.0 3.3 1.6 0.6 0.2
UNC Greensboro 9 - 9 0.2 0.5 1.5 3.0 4.4 6.6 8.4 10.0 11.2 12.1 11.2 10.1 7.5 5.9 3.9 2.1 1.2 0.4 0.1
Mercer 8 - 10 0.3 1.0 2.3 4.3 6.6 8.6 10.3 11.4 11.5 10.9 9.8 7.7 6.1 4.4 2.4 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
Western Carolina 7 - 11 0.5 1.7 3.6 6.1 8.6 10.6 11.5 12.0 11.0 9.8 8.0 6.3 4.3 2.8 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
VMI 7 - 11 0.8 2.7 5.6 8.4 10.6 12.1 12.4 11.1 10.2 8.5 6.7 4.4 3.0 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
The Citadel 4 - 14 4.9 10.5 13.9 14.8 14.2 12.1 9.7 7.4 4.8 3.2 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Chattanooga 31.7% 22.5 7.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Furman 29.2% 20.5 7.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
East Tennessee St. 20.7% 13.9 5.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Samford 14.9% 9.7 3.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Wofford 9.2% 5.5 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
UNC Greensboro 6.8% 3.8 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
Mercer 4.7% 2.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Western Carolina 2.9% 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
VMI 1.7% 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
The Citadel 0.3% 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Chattanooga 23.7% 23.6% 0.1% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 2.6 6.5 6.4 4.4 2.4 1.0 76.3 0.1%
Furman 22.2% 22.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.3 6.0 5.8 4.4 2.3 1.2 77.8 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.7 4.3 4.0 2.3 1.4 83.3 0.0%
Samford 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 3.3 3.3 2.1 1.3 87.5 0.0%
Wofford 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.0 2.3 1.7 1.3 91.6 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.2 93.7 0.0%
Mercer 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.2 95.5 0.0%
Western Carolina 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 96.8 0.0%
VMI 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 97.8 0.0%
The Citadel 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Chattanooga 23.7% 0.6% 23.7% 2.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 22.2% 0.6% 22.2% 2.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 16.7% 0.6% 16.8% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 12.5% 0.7% 12.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 8.4% 0.8% 8.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 6.3% 0.7% 6.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 4.5% 0.8% 4.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 3.2% 0.7% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 2.2% 0.6% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 97.9% 1.0 2.1 95.9 1.9
2nd Round 8.9% 0.1 91.1 8.9 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.5% 0.0 98.5 1.5
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0