Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
141 East Tennessee St. 29.3%   15   6 - 5 0 - 0 19 - 10 13 - 5 +1.3      +2.1 117 -0.7 190 66.5 262 -2.7 206 0.0 1
148 Furman 26.2%   6 - 4 0 - 0 19 - 9 13 - 5 +0.9      +0.9 139 0.0 163 67.9 228 +2.9 130 0.0 1
174 Mercer 16.6%   5 - 5 0 - 0 16 - 12 11 - 7 -1.1      0.0 168 -1.1 204 75.5 41 +3.3 124 0.0 1
220 Wofford 8.0%   6 - 5 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 8 -3.8      -1.7 214 -2.1 237 68.0 225 -0.8 178 0.0 1
227 Samford 7.2%   5 - 6 0 - 0 15 - 14 10 - 8 -4.0      -1.1 197 -3.0 275 69.3 191 -2.1 195 0.0 1
235 Chattanooga 6.7%   3 - 7 0 - 0 12 - 16 9 - 9 -4.4      -0.7 183 -3.7 298 65.5 285 -7.7 283 0.0 1
294 UNC Greensboro 2.6%   2 - 9 0 - 0 10 - 19 8 - 10 -7.1      -2.6 237 -4.5 320 68.2 222 -10.6 324 0.0 1
299 Western Carolina 2.5%   2 - 7 0 - 0 9 - 18 7 - 11 -7.5      -4.5 292 -3.0 277 74.5 57 -6.2 256 0.0 1
332 VMI 0.7%   2 - 8 0 - 0 8 - 20 6 - 12 -10.3      -3.0 251 -7.3 352 68.8 204 -12.5 335 0.0 1
355 The Citadel 0.1%   0 - 10 0 - 0 4 - 24 4 - 14 -13.7      -5.2 314 -8.5 360 62.8 337 -19.7 360 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Dec 20 174 Mercer 78 149 Washington St. 84   
Sat, Dec 20 141 East Tennessee St. 75 236 Jacksonville St. 81   
Sat, Dec 20 104 Richmond 80 355 The Citadel 56   
Sun, Dec 21 239 Charleston Southern 76 148 Furman 84   
Sun, Dec 21 293 Alabama A&M 66 235 Chattanooga 73   
Sun, Dec 21 261 Radford 97 332 VMI 90   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
East Tennessee St. 2.3 41.3 24.5 15.2 8.8 5.2 2.9 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
Furman 2.5 37.4 24.4 15.3 9.9 6.1 3.6 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1
Mercer 3.3 20.9 20.7 19.0 14.3 10.5 7.2 4.1 2.3 0.9 0.2
Wofford 4.6 7.8 11.4 14.3 16.2 16.0 13.1 10.1 6.7 3.4 1.0
Samford 4.7 7.2 10.7 13.6 15.8 15.5 14.2 10.9 7.4 3.6 1.1
Chattanooga 4.9 6.2 9.6 13.0 15.1 15.7 14.4 11.7 8.2 4.6 1.5
UNC Greensboro 6.3 1.9 3.6 6.5 9.7 12.3 15.1 17.2 17.0 11.8 4.8
Western Carolina 6.5 1.5 3.4 5.5 8.3 11.4 14.6 17.1 18.3 13.5 6.3
VMI 7.8 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.4 6.1 9.0 13.8 20.1 27.0 17.8
The Citadel 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.2 6.2 12.5 25.1 50.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
East Tennessee St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.1 4.3 7.1 11.0 14.6 16.5 16.7 13.0 8.4 3.7 0.9
Furman 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.0 5.1 8.2 11.4 14.8 16.2 15.8 12.0 7.3 3.2 0.7
Mercer 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.6 6.2 9.3 11.9 14.7 15.7 13.8 10.7 6.7 3.3 1.1 0.2
Wofford 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 3.2 5.6 8.8 12.0 14.1 14.8 13.5 10.7 7.5 4.3 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
Samford 10 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.6 6.0 9.8 12.6 14.3 14.4 12.9 10.4 7.0 4.0 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
Chattanooga 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 4.3 7.1 9.8 13.0 14.5 14.3 12.4 9.3 6.1 3.5 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
UNC Greensboro 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.4 6.4 10.1 13.2 14.6 14.3 12.4 10.1 6.9 3.9 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Carolina 7 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.9 4.0 7.5 11.2 13.9 14.7 13.9 11.9 8.5 5.6 3.4 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
VMI 6 - 12 0.5 2.6 6.2 11.0 14.4 16.0 15.1 12.5 9.2 6.0 3.4 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
The Citadel 4 - 14 3.5 10.5 16.3 18.7 17.8 13.6 9.2 5.1 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
East Tennessee St. 41.3% 28.8 10.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Furman 37.4% 25.3 9.8 2.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Mercer 20.9% 12.9 6.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Wofford 7.8% 4.1 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Samford 7.2% 3.6 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0
Chattanooga 6.2% 3.2 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
UNC Greensboro 1.9% 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Carolina 1.5% 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
VMI 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
The Citadel 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
East Tennessee St. 29.3% 29.3% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.2 1.1 5.2 11.1 9.2 2.5 70.7 0.0%
Furman 26.2% 26.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.7 7.2 10.6 5.7 1.0 73.8 0.0%
Mercer 16.6% 16.6% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 2.8 6.3 5.6 1.3 83.4 0.0%
Wofford 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.5 2.5 92.0 0.0%
Samford 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.2 2.6 92.8 0.0%
Chattanooga 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.2 3.9 93.3 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.3 97.4 0.0%
Western Carolina 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 97.5 0.0%
VMI 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 99.3 0.0%
The Citadel 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
East Tennessee St. 29.3% 0.5% 29.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 26.2% 0.2% 26.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 16.6% 0.4% 16.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 8.0% 0.9% 7.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 7.2% 1.1% 6.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 6.7% 2.4% 5.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 2.6% 1.9% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 2.5% 1.4% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 95.5% 1.0 4.5 95.5
2nd Round 3.6% 0.0 96.4 3.6
Sweet Sixteen 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0