Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
117 East Tennessee St. 39.3%   14   6 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 8 14 - 4 +3.2      +1.4 131 +1.9 113 68.9 197 +3.0 128 0.0 1
148 Furman 23.1%   4 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 10 12 - 6 +0.6      +1.4 130 -0.7 190 66.4 268 +1.5 144 0.0 1
194 Mercer 12.0%   5 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 12 11 - 7 -2.1      +0.2 157 -2.3 245 75.7 43 +6.5 91 0.0 1
222 Chattanooga 7.5%   2 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 15 10 - 8 -3.8      -0.2 167 -3.5 284 64.0 318 -8.4 292 0.0 1
231 Samford 6.7%   4 - 6 0 - 0 14 - 15 10 - 8 -4.1      -0.9 188 -3.2 274 68.4 211 -3.2 216 0.0 1
247 Wofford 5.6%   5 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 14 9 - 9 -4.7      -2.2 227 -2.6 255 68.5 208 -0.7 182 0.0 1
281 UNC Greensboro 3.0%   2 - 8 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 10 -6.5      -2.2 228 -4.4 324 68.3 217 -8.6 294 0.0 1
289 Western Carolina 2.4%   2 - 5 0 - 0 10 - 17 8 - 10 -7.2      -4.9 301 -2.4 246 74.5 62 -5.7 254 0.0 1
341 VMI 0.4%   1 - 7 0 - 0 7 - 21 5 - 13 -11.3      -5.2 311 -6.1 347 69.3 189 -13.7 339 0.0 1
363 The Citadel 0.1%   0 - 7 0 - 0 3 - 25 3 - 15 -15.1      -5.2 308 -10.0 365 62.8 340 -20.9 362 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 3 262 Presbyterian 56 247 Wofford 63   
Wed, Dec 3 184 Elon 88 148 Furman 97   
Thu, Dec 4 138 Davidson 79 363 The Citadel 63   
Fri, Dec 5 117 East Tennessee St. 91 166 South Alabama 65   
Fri, Dec 5 231 Samford 57 42 Virginia Commonwealth 83   
Sat, Dec 6 222 Chattanooga 70 216 Southeast Missouri St. 74   
Sat, Dec 6 148 Furman 79 202 Harvard 69   
Sat, Dec 6 184 Elon 73 247 Wofford 52   
Sat, Dec 6 266 East Carolina 78 281 UNC Greensboro 82   
Sat, Dec 6 274 South Carolina Upstate 78 289 Western Carolina 67   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 7 150 Cornell 84 231 Samford 83 55%   
Tue, Dec 9 321 Loyola Maryland 74 341 VMI 75 53%   
Thu, Dec 11 67 Virginia Tech 86 289 Western Carolina 67 95%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
East Tennessee St. 1.9 56.4 22.0 10.6 5.5 2.9 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Furman 2.7 29.7 27.4 17.2 10.9 6.7 4.2 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.0
Mercer 3.8 13.6 18.3 18.5 15.7 12.7 9.2 6.2 3.8 1.7 0.4
Chattanooga 4.6 7.4 12.4 15.3 16.0 14.8 12.7 10.0 7.0 3.5 0.9
Samford 4.7 5.8 10.8 15.3 16.2 15.4 13.7 10.9 7.6 3.5 0.8
Wofford 5.1 4.5 9.0 12.9 15.0 15.4 15.0 13.0 9.3 4.7 1.2
UNC Greensboro 5.9 1.9 5.0 8.3 11.2 13.6 16.3 16.9 15.3 8.7 2.8
Western Carolina 6.3 1.7 4.1 6.8 9.7 12.2 14.5 17.1 17.8 11.9 4.3
VMI 8.1 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.5 4.6 7.5 12.4 20.2 32.3 18.4
The Citadel 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.3 4.8 10.3 25.0 55.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
East Tennessee St. 14 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.9 6.9 10.3 14.3 17.6 17.5 14.6 8.5 2.8
Furman 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.4 5.8 8.7 12.3 14.9 16.0 14.4 11.2 6.8 2.9 0.7
Mercer 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.1 5.1 8.3 11.2 13.4 14.5 13.9 11.5 8.5 4.9 2.3 0.7 0.1
Chattanooga 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.2 5.6 8.6 11.1 13.6 14.5 13.2 11.0 7.8 4.8 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.0
Samford 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.4 6.3 9.1 12.2 14.3 14.7 13.6 10.3 7.0 3.9 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
Wofford 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 4.6 7.7 10.9 13.4 14.5 14.1 11.9 8.9 5.6 3.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
UNC Greensboro 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 5.0 8.3 11.4 14.2 14.9 13.7 11.2 8.3 5.2 2.8 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Western Carolina 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.6 6.7 10.0 12.7 14.1 13.9 12.5 9.7 6.9 4.1 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
VMI 5 - 13 0.8 3.6 8.5 12.6 16.1 16.2 14.3 11.1 7.7 4.6 2.5 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
The Citadel 3 - 15 6.0 14.4 19.9 19.2 15.6 11.0 6.8 3.8 1.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
East Tennessee St. 56.4% 43.6 10.9 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Furman 29.7% 19.7 8.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Mercer 13.6% 7.8 4.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Chattanooga 7.4% 4.0 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Samford 5.8% 3.1 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wofford 4.5% 2.2 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
UNC Greensboro 1.9% 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Carolina 1.7% 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
VMI 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
The Citadel 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
East Tennessee St. 39.3% 39.3% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 5.9 14.0 13.2 4.7 0.7 60.7 0.0%
Furman 23.1% 23.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.9 8.6 5.3 1.5 76.9 0.0%
Mercer 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.2 4.3 3.7 1.3 88.0 0.0%
Chattanooga 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.4 3.7 92.5 0.0%
Samford 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.6 2.9 93.3 0.0%
Wofford 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 2.2 94.5 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 97.0 0.0%
Western Carolina 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 97.6 0.0%
VMI 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%
The Citadel 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
East Tennessee St. 39.3% 0.1% 39.2% 3.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 23.1% 0.4% 22.9% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 12.0% 0.4% 11.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 7.5% 2.2% 6.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 6.7% 1.4% 6.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 5.6% 1.0% 5.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 3.0% 1.8% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 2.4% 1.2% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 95.8% 1.0 4.2 95.8
2nd Round 5.7% 0.1 94.3 5.7
Sweet Sixteen 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0