Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
141 Samford 19.4%   0 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 6 +1.2      +2.1 118 -0.9 200 80.2 13 -11.2 318 0.0 1
146 Furman 19.9%   14   2 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 12 - 6 +1.0      +1.3 145 -0.2 174 70.9 131 +14.0 25 0.0 1
168 Chattanooga 14.5%   1 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 7 -0.3      +0.7 156 -1.1 205 67.1 248 -5.3 270 0.0 1
176 UNC Greensboro 11.8%   1 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 8 -0.7      -0.2 176 -0.5 184 63.1 338 +2.6 143 0.0 1
180 Wofford 12.6%   0 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 15 10 - 8 -0.8      +2.2 114 -3.0 270 61.8 351 -13.0 333 0.0 1
191 East Tennessee St. 10.8%   0 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 14 10 - 8 -1.5      -0.2 177 -1.3 216 67.4 241 -19.1 354 0.0 1
250 Mercer 4.8%   0 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 10 -4.4      -2.3 243 -2.0 238 69.4 177 -6.3 279 0.0 1
265 Western Carolina 4.2%   0 - 1 0 - 0 10 - 15 8 - 10 -5.2      -5.0 319 -0.2 173 67.2 245 -16.9 349 0.0 1
292 The Citadel 2.0%   1 - 1 0 - 0 10 - 15 7 - 11 -6.9      -5.3 330 -1.6 224 64.3 324 -4.0 251 0.0 1
357 VMI 0.1%   1 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 21 3 - 15 -14.2      -8.0 357 -6.2 350 85.1 3 +6.5 77 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Samford 3.3 26.7 19.1 14.4 12.8 8.7 7.4 5.1 3.6 1.8 0.3
Furman 3.4 27.4 18.3 14.6 10.7 9.3 7.4 6.0 4.3 1.7 0.2
Chattanooga 4.1 14.9 16.8 15.4 13.6 11.8 9.4 8.7 5.3 3.6 0.7
UNC Greensboro 4.2 14.5 14.6 13.1 14.4 14.5 11.2 7.8 6.3 2.6 0.8
Wofford 4.2 15.4 15.4 13.2 14.2 11.4 10.5 7.5 7.8 3.8 0.7
East Tennessee St. 4.7 13.7 12.0 11.0 12.5 11.1 13.2 10.2 8.7 6.2 1.4
Mercer 5.7 6.1 7.1 8.6 9.9 12.9 11.2 15.5 14.0 10.7 4.1
Western Carolina 6.2 4.1 5.4 7.2 8.4 11.3 12.7 13.5 16.1 15.5 5.7
The Citadel 7.1 1.7 2.9 3.8 5.4 9.6 10.6 12.7 20.2 24.2 9.0
VMI 9.3 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.5 3.9 9.0 20.1 63.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Samford 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.8 6.2 8.4 10.7 12.4 13.9 11.4 10.4 8.8 5.8 2.3 1.1
Furman 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.3 3.1 5.1 5.5 8.7 8.6 13.3 12.6 12.6 12.0 8.3 5.1 2.2 0.6
Chattanooga 11 - 7 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.4 4.9 5.3 9.2 11.1 12.0 13.6 12.4 10.9 7.9 5.0 2.2 0.9 0.1
UNC Greensboro 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.7 4.4 7.0 8.9 12.5 14.1 10.8 12.2 9.9 7.5 4.8 2.1 0.7 0.2
Wofford 10 - 8 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.6 3.3 5.0 6.6 9.1 11.3 11.6 12.5 11.8 9.9 7.0 5.1 2.7 1.2 0.3
East Tennessee St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.7 4.5 5.8 8.9 10.9 11.4 10.5 12.0 9.5 7.9 6.3 4.0 2.2 0.9 0.2
Mercer 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.8 3.7 5.4 6.9 9.2 12.8 12.4 11.9 10.4 7.8 6.5 4.4 3.6 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.1
Western Carolina 8 - 10 0.1 1.2 2.9 5.2 8.0 8.1 10.1 12.0 11.7 12.1 9.8 6.5 4.8 3.4 2.0 1.4 0.7 0.0 0.0
The Citadel 7 - 11 0.2 1.7 5.1 7.9 11.0 13.0 13.2 11.9 9.7 11.4 5.1 4.3 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
VMI 3 - 15 11.0 17.5 22.0 17.4 11.9 8.9 4.5 3.1 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Samford 26.7% 18.5 6.0 2.1 0.1 0.1
Furman 27.4% 18.2 7.1 2.0 0.2
Chattanooga 14.9% 8.6 5.1 0.9 0.2 0.1
UNC Greensboro 14.5% 9.0 3.8 1.6 0.1 0.1
Wofford 15.4% 10.1 3.9 1.3 0.1 0.1
East Tennessee St. 13.7% 7.8 4.7 1.1 0.1
Mercer 6.1% 3.9 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.1
Western Carolina 4.1% 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0
The Citadel 1.7% 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1
VMI 0.1% 0.1


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Samford 19.4% 19.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.5 5.4 4.9 3.9 2.3 80.6 0.0%
Furman 19.9% 19.7% 0.1% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7 5.3 6.4 5.3 1.7 0.4 80.1 0.2%
Chattanooga 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.8 3.7 4.7 2.6 85.5 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 11.8% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.8 3.6 2.9 1.2 88.2 0.0%
Wofford 12.6% 12.6% 0.0% 0.1 0.0 0.4 2.7 2.4 3.8 3.1 87.5 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 0.1 1.0 1.4 2.1 3.1 3.0 89.2 0.0%
Mercer 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 1.6 1.6 95.2 0.0%
Western Carolina 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 2.3 95.8 0.0%
The Citadel 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 98.0 0.0%
VMI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Samford 19.4% 0.8% 19.2% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 19.9% 0.3% 19.8% 1.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 14.5% 1.4% 13.7% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 11.8% 0.7% 11.6% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 12.6% 1.7% 12.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 10.8% 1.4% 10.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 4.8% 0.8% 4.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 4.2% 1.6% 3.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 2.0% 0.4% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 96.3% 1.0 3.7 96.3 0.1
2nd Round 9.5% 0.1 90.5 9.5
Sweet Sixteen 2.5% 0.0 97.5 2.5
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0