Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
109 Samford 30.6%   13   7 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 8 13 - 5 +4.0      +5.6 51 -1.6 220 79.9 10 +7.6 85 0.0 1
126 Furman 20.0%   8 - 1 0 - 0 21 - 7 12 - 6 +2.2      +0.4 157 +1.8 115 64.9 284 +16.3 23 0.0 1
147 East Tennessee St. 13.5%   4 - 5 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 7 +0.6      0.0 172 +0.6 147 67.4 225 -3.1 220 0.0 1
157 UNC Greensboro 11.9%   4 - 5 0 - 0 15 - 13 11 - 7 +0.1      -1.1 202 +1.2 130 63.1 321 -0.8 182 0.0 1
163 Wofford 10.0%   3 - 7 0 - 0 14 - 15 11 - 7 -0.4      +2.1 121 -2.5 253 62.8 328 -4.2 238 0.0 1
178 Chattanooga 9.0%   6 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 8 -0.9      +1.7 127 -2.6 256 67.1 233 +0.1 168 0.0 1
229 Mercer 3.9%   4 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 9 -3.6      -0.9 197 -2.7 259 70.9 121 -2.6 210 0.0 1
308 Western Carolina 0.8%   1 - 6 0 - 0 7 - 19 6 - 12 -8.0      -6.7 343 -1.3 208 74.8 46 -14.9 350 0.0 1
345 The Citadel 0.2%   1 - 5 0 - 0 5 - 20 4 - 14 -11.7      -6.9 350 -4.8 321 64.3 302 -16.9 356 0.0 1
350 VMI 0.1%   2 - 6 0 - 0 6 - 21 4 - 14 -12.3      -6.5 340 -5.8 342 70.5 132 -10.6 326 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Samford 2.3 43.5 22.2 13.9 9.0 5.8 3.4 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Furman 3.0 27.3 22.0 16.9 12.9 9.5 6.5 3.4 1.2 0.3 0.0
East Tennessee St. 3.7 16.5 17.5 16.8 15.5 13.5 10.2 6.5 2.5 0.7 0.1
UNC Greensboro 3.9 13.6 15.8 16.1 15.5 14.5 11.9 8.0 3.5 0.9 0.2
Wofford 4.2 11.1 14.1 15.4 15.8 15.2 13.5 9.6 4.1 1.1 0.2
Chattanooga 4.4 9.7 12.2 14.4 15.5 15.9 14.7 10.9 4.9 1.5 0.4
Mercer 5.7 3.4 5.7 8.4 10.7 13.8 17.5 21.3 12.8 5.0 1.6
Western Carolina 7.6 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.2 5.7 9.9 17.7 30.6 19.5 10.2
The Citadel 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.6 3.4 8.2 19.6 33.0 32.9
VMI 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.7 7.1 18.0 32.9 37.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Samford 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.7 6.5 10.0 13.7 16.2 16.8 13.9 9.8 4.9 1.3
Furman 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 4.0 6.8 10.4 13.6 15.6 15.7 13.2 9.4 5.4 2.1 0.4
East Tennessee St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.1 7.0 10.5 13.5 15.2 14.9 12.5 9.4 5.7 2.5 0.8 0.2
UNC Greensboro 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 3.1 5.2 8.2 11.7 14.2 15.1 14.1 11.6 7.8 4.4 2.0 0.6 0.1
Wofford 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.4 6.2 9.4 12.7 14.8 15.2 13.2 10.5 6.7 3.4 1.5 0.4 0.1
Chattanooga 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 3.9 7.4 10.5 13.7 14.9 14.7 12.3 9.2 5.6 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.0
Mercer 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 3.7 6.6 10.2 13.0 14.5 14.2 12.4 9.6 6.6 3.8 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Western Carolina 6 - 12 0.4 2.0 5.3 9.5 13.4 15.6 15.5 13.3 10.0 6.9 4.1 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
The Citadel 4 - 14 3.2 9.5 15.6 18.3 17.5 13.6 9.7 6.0 3.4 1.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
VMI 4 - 14 3.7 11.0 17.1 19.3 17.5 13.1 8.7 5.0 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Samford 43.5% 30.8 10.0 2.3 0.4 0.0 0.0
Furman 27.3% 17.5 7.5 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0
East Tennessee St. 16.5% 9.6 5.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
UNC Greensboro 13.6% 7.8 4.2 1.3 0.3 0.0
Wofford 11.1% 6.1 3.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Chattanooga 9.7% 5.1 3.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Mercer 3.4% 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Carolina 0.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
The Citadel 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
VMI 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Samford 30.6% 30.6% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 10.8 11.9 5.3 1.0 0.0 69.4 0.0%
Furman 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 9.0 7.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 80.0 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 13.5% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.5 4.8 3.1 1.1 86.5 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 11.9% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.1 3.9 2.8 1.0 88.1 0.0%
Wofford 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.8 3.1 2.0 90.0 0.0%
Chattanooga 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.3 2.6 0.7 91.0 0.0%
Mercer 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.1 96.1 0.0%
Western Carolina 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 99.2 0.0%
The Citadel 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
VMI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Samford 30.6% 0.0% 30.6% 4.9% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 2.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 13.5% 0.5% 13.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 11.9% 0.4% 11.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 10.0% 1.2% 9.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 9.0% 0.2% 8.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 3.9% 0.6% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 98.4% 1.0 1.6 98.4 0.0
2nd Round 10.7% 0.1 89.3 10.7
Sweet Sixteen 2.1% 0.0 97.9 2.1
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0