Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
115 Samford 22.6%   14   13 - 4 5 - 1 21 - 8 13 - 5 +2.9      +4.0 75 -1.1 209 75.0 39 +6.3 87 +3.5 2
129 UNC Greensboro 20.1%   9 - 7 5 - 1 17 - 11 13 - 5 +2.1      +1.3 140 +0.7 141 61.9 343 +1.9 134 +9.4 1
130 Wofford 17.9%   8 - 9 4 - 2 16 - 13 12 - 6 +1.9      +3.6 89 -1.7 230 62.1 337 +0.5 166 +3.4 3
147 East Tennessee St. 14.1%   9 - 8 4 - 2 17 - 12 12 - 6 +1.1      +0.7 157 +0.4 154 66.6 230 -1.5 195 +2.3 4
152 Furman 11.7%   12 - 4 3 - 3 19 - 9 10 - 8 +0.8      +0.5 166 +0.3 159 64.6 282 +6.0 93 -3.2 6
157 Chattanooga 11.2%   10 - 7 4 - 2 17 - 12 11 - 7 +0.5      +4.1 72 -3.7 282 67.1 225 +0.7 160 +1.0 5
232 Mercer 2.2%   7 - 10 2 - 4 12 - 17 7 - 11 -4.1      -3.3 256 -0.8 201 74.9 43 -4.4 240 -6.8 7
329 VMI 0.1%   4 - 11 2 - 4 7 - 20 5 - 13 -10.4      -5.4 316 -5.0 321 68.6 180 -9.7 313 -8.5 8
341 Western Carolina 0.1%   2 - 12 1 - 5 5 - 21 4 - 14 -11.5      -8.4 355 -3.1 267 74.5 47 -13.7 340 -11.5 9
352 The Citadel 0.0%   1 - 12 0 - 6 3 - 22 2 - 16 -13.0      -8.1 350 -4.9 318 63.9 301 -20.0 361 -20.1 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Samford 2.5 33.6 24.3 16.9 11.8 7.9 4.8 0.7 0.0
UNC Greensboro 2.1 47.4 23.2 13.2 8.7 4.9 2.3 0.4
Wofford 2.9 21.7 22.9 21.1 16.6 10.9 5.7 1.0 0.1
East Tennessee St. 3.4 16.4 17.6 19.2 18.6 15.2 11.0 1.9 0.1 0.0
Furman 4.6 4.6 8.5 12.6 17.4 22.5 25.9 7.9 0.7 0.1
Chattanooga 3.8 10.2 14.8 18.0 19.0 19.2 15.5 3.1 0.3 0.0
Mercer 6.7 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.2 6.9 17.1 59.0 10.0 1.8 0.2
VMI 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.4 15.2 53.1 24.1 4.6
Western Carolina 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 6.3 32.5 42.5 18.1
The Citadel 9.4 0.0 0.1 2.1 12.8 26.2 58.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Samford 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.6 6.5 13.5 19.0 22.4 19.0 11.3 4.2 0.7
UNC Greensboro 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.2 9.3 15.0 21.7 22.0 16.5 7.9 1.9
Wofford 12 - 6 0.0 0.3 1.4 4.0 9.4 17.0 23.5 20.9 15.7 6.5 1.4
East Tennessee St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.9 7.6 13.5 20.0 21.9 17.7 10.6 4.2 0.8
Furman 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.6 8.9 16.9 21.4 21.4 15.3 8.0 2.9 0.4
Chattanooga 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.6 4.7 9.8 17.2 21.8 21.3 13.9 7.0 2.2 0.4
Mercer 7 - 11 0.0 0.5 3.0 8.8 16.4 22.8 21.1 15.2 8.2 3.1 0.9 0.1
VMI 5 - 13 4.5 15.6 25.4 24.4 16.2 8.8 3.7 1.2 0.3 0.0
Western Carolina 4 - 14 4.6 15.5 26.4 25.2 17.0 7.5 2.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
The Citadel 2 - 16 8.9 22.1 26.6 21.8 12.5 5.3 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Samford 33.6% 19.0 10.5 3.4 0.6 0.0 0.0
UNC Greensboro 47.4% 29.8 13.2 3.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
Wofford 21.7% 10.9 7.6 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
East Tennessee St. 16.4% 7.7 5.8 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Furman 4.6% 1.4 1.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Chattanooga 10.2% 4.1 4.0 1.6 0.6 0.0 0.0
Mercer 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
VMI
Western Carolina
The Citadel


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Samford 22.6% 22.6% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.2 4.4 10.2 6.9 0.8 0.0 77.5 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 20.1% 20.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.8 8.6 6.9 1.5 0.0 79.9 0.0%
Wofford 17.9% 17.9% 0.0% 0.1 2.1 6.7 6.1 2.5 0.3 82.1 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 14.1% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.1 6.1 2.5 0.2 85.9 0.0%
Furman 11.7% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0 1.5 4.6 4.3 1.3 0.1 88.3 0.0%
Chattanooga 11.2% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 2.6 5.4 2.4 0.3 88.8 0.0%
Mercer 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 97.8 0.0%
VMI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Western Carolina 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
The Citadel 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Samford 22.6% 0.0% 22.6% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 20.1% 0.0% 20.1% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 17.9% 0.1% 17.9% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 14.1% 0.1% 14.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 11.7% 0.0% 11.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 11.2% 0.1% 11.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 2.2% 0.7% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.5% 1.0 0.6 99.5
2nd Round 7.5% 0.1 92.5 7.5
Sweet Sixteen 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0