Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Results Rating Conf Results Rating
140 East Tennessee St. 34.4%   15   19 - 10 13 - 5 +1.1      +0.7 142 +0.4 156 65.5 258 -0.9 173 -0.1 1
178 Mercer 16.1%   16 - 12 11 - 7 -1.2      +1.8 121 -3.0 260 72.1 84 -1.3 181 -3.0 4
186 Furman 15.0%   16 - 12 10 - 8 -1.8      -1.9 220 +0.1 168 65.1 270 -2.1 195 -4.4 6
191 Samford 13.6%   16 - 13 11 - 7 -2.0      +0.4 152 -2.4 249 68.3 184 -2.6 209 -2.9 3
232 Western Carolina 7.0%   12 - 15 10 - 8 -3.9      +0.5 149 -4.4 301 70.3 128 -4.7 242 -4.2 5
240 Wofford 10.3%   17 - 12 11 - 7 -4.5      +0.5 150 -5.0 315 69.3 158 -2.4 205 -2.6 2
286 Chattanooga 1.8%   10 - 18 7 - 11 -7.2      -2.6 238 -4.6 309 67.2 217 -8.6 302 -8.3 9
297 UNC Greensboro 1.8%   11 - 18 9 - 9 -8.3      -1.0 189 -7.3 349 69.3 159 -7.0 275 -5.1 7
343 The Citadel 0.1%   7 - 21 7 - 11 -12.8      -6.4 328 -6.4 336 62.4 335 -10.9 331 -7.5 8
358 VMI 0.0%   3 - 25 1 - 17 -16.3      -6.2 324 -10.1 363 67.2 214 -17.0 357 -21.3 10


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Mar 6 286 Chattanooga 74 343 The Citadel 68 71%   
Fri, Mar 6 297 UNC Greensboro 83 358 VMI 75 78%   
Sat, Mar 7 186 Furman 74 191 Samford 73 51%   
Sat, Mar 7 178 Mercer 83 232 Western Carolina 81 60%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
East Tennessee St. 1.0 100.0
Wofford 2.0 100.0
Mercer 2.0 100.0
Samford 2.0 100.0
Western Carolina 5.0 100.0
Furman 5.0 100.0
UNC Greensboro 7.0 100.0
The Citadel 8.0 100.0
Chattanooga 8.0 100.0
VMI 10.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
East Tennessee St. 13 - 5 19 - 10 100.0
Wofford 11 - 7 17 - 12 100.0
Mercer 11 - 7 17 - 12 100.0
Samford 11 - 7 16 - 14 100.0
Western Carolina 10 - 8 12 - 16 100.0
Furman 10 - 8 17 - 12 100.0
UNC Greensboro 9 - 9 12 - 18 100.0
The Citadel 7 - 11 7 - 22 100.0
Chattanooga 7 - 11 11 - 18 100.0
VMI 1 - 17 3 - 26 100.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
East Tennessee St. 100.0% 100.0
Wofford
Mercer
Samford
Western Carolina
Furman
UNC Greensboro
The Citadel
Chattanooga
VMI


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
East Tennessee St. 34.4% 34.4% 0.0% 15   0.3 6.0 20.0 7.9 0.2 65.6 0.0%
Mercer 16.1% 16.1% 0.0% 0.9 7.8 6.8 0.6 83.9 0.0%
Furman 15.0% 15.0% 0.0% 0.2 4.0 8.8 2.1 85.0 0.0%
Samford 13.6% 13.6% 0.0% 0.2 4.2 7.7 1.6 86.4 0.0%
Western Carolina 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.3 6.7 93.0 0.0%
Wofford 10.3% 10.3% 0.0% 0.1 3.1 7.0 89.7 0.0%
Chattanooga 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 1.8 98.2 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 1.8 98.3 0.0%
The Citadel 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
VMI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 94.3% 0.9 5.7 94.3
2nd Round 1.8% 0.0 98.2 1.8
Sweet Sixteen 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
East Tennessee St. 34.4% 0.0% 34.4% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 16.1% 0.0% 16.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 15.0% 0.2% 15.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 13.6% 0.1% 13.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 7.0% 4.8% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 10.3% 3.0% 8.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 1.8% 1.8% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 1.8% 1.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%