Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
126 East Tennessee St. 35.4%   15   17 - 7 11 - 2 +2.0      +1.5 129 +0.5 150 65.4 267 +0.4 155 +3.1 1
171 Mercer 19.3%   13 - 10 8 - 5 -0.6      +0.8 146 -1.4 221 74.0 53 -0.2 165 -2.5 3
176 Furman 15.9%   13 - 10 7 - 6 -1.0      -1.4 205 +0.4 155 65.2 272 -1.6 194 -4.6 5
194 Samford 10.5%   12 - 12 7 - 6 -2.3      +0.8 147 -3.0 268 67.7 210 -3.3 219 -4.4 4
212 Wofford 13.1%   15 - 9 9 - 4 -2.9      +0.8 144 -3.7 288 69.0 175 -0.6 174 +0.2 2
263 Western Carolina 2.8%   7 - 15 5 - 8 -5.7      -0.5 169 -5.2 321 71.4 108 -7.3 281 -7.6 8
282 Chattanooga 1.6%   7 - 16 4 - 9 -7.0      -3.6 268 -3.3 280 66.5 239 -8.9 306 -8.6 9
302 UNC Greensboro 1.3%   9 - 15 7 - 6 -8.1      -1.5 206 -6.7 339 67.7 212 -7.2 276 -4.8 6
347 The Citadel 0.2%   6 - 17 6 - 7 -12.3      -5.9 323 -6.4 338 62.3 336 -10.7 328 -5.8 7
360 VMI 0.0%   3 - 20 1 - 12 -15.5      -6.1 326 -9.4 362 67.9 206 -16.0 355 -19.9 10


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sun, Feb 8 176 Furman 64 302 UNC Greensboro 67   
Wed, Feb 11 176 Furman 64 171 Mercer 69   
Wed, Feb 11 282 Chattanooga 61 126 East Tennessee St. 73   
Wed, Feb 11 194 Samford 97 212 Wofford 80   
Wed, Feb 11 302 UNC Greensboro 92 360 VMI 71   
Wed, Feb 11 347 The Citadel 49 263 Western Carolina 87   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Feb 14 126 East Tennessee St. 78 194 Samford 70 76%   
Sat, Feb 14 282 Chattanooga 77 263 Western Carolina 76 57%   
Sat, Feb 14 302 UNC Greensboro 77 212 Wofford 80 59%   
Sat, Feb 14 171 Mercer 79 347 The Citadel 70 80%   
Sat, Feb 14 176 Furman 78 360 VMI 67 86%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
East Tennessee St. 1.1 93.2 5.5 1.1 0.2
Mercer 2.8 5.5 36.3 38.6 12.7 5.8 1.0 0.2 0.0
Furman 3.8 0.5 13.4 21.2 38.3 20.7 4.7 1.0 0.2 0.0
Samford 4.2 0.5 6.4 20.5 33.4 29.3 8.2 1.4 0.2 0.0
Wofford 2.1 15.5 63.9 15.7 4.1 0.7 0.1
Western Carolina 6.7 0.0 1.0 4.7 10.4 27.9 28.2 19.1 8.8
Chattanooga 7.7 0.0 0.4 2.5 16.0 24.4 24.8 31.9
UNC Greensboro 5.9 0.0 0.9 2.9 9.3 18.1 40.0 20.8 7.3 0.7
The Citadel 7.6 0.1 0.3 1.4 3.8 11.9 25.4 33.3 23.9
VMI 10.0 0.2 99.8

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
East Tennessee St. 14 - 4 20 - 9 0.7 5.4 17.3 33.6 31.4 11.7
Mercer 11 - 7 16 - 12 0.4 4.2 16.1 32.1 33.0 14.2
Furman 10 - 8 16 - 12 0.3 4.0 17.2 35.4 31.9 11.3
Samford 10 - 8 15 - 14 0.3 4.6 21.8 41.6 26.2 5.5
Wofford 12 - 6 18 - 11 0.3 3.6 19.2 38.9 31.1 7.0
Western Carolina 8 - 10 10 - 17 2.0 11.3 28.6 32.2 20.6 5.4
Chattanooga 7 - 11 10 - 18 1.1 8.3 25.1 37.2 23.8 4.5
UNC Greensboro 9 - 9 11 - 18 17.5 35.9 29.0 13.9 3.4 0.4
The Citadel 7 - 11 7 - 21 29.3 41.9 21.9 6.0 0.9 0.1
VMI 2 - 16 4 - 24 49.0 36.9 11.9 2.0 0.2 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
East Tennessee St. 93.2% 81.3 9.5 2.1 0.3 0.0
Mercer 5.5% 0.7 2.7 1.8 0.2 0.0
Furman 0.5% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
Samford 0.5% 0.1 0.2 0.2
Wofford 15.5% 5.5 7.7 2.0 0.3 0.0
Western Carolina
Chattanooga
UNC Greensboro 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
The Citadel
VMI


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
East Tennessee St. 35.4% 35.4% 0.0% 15   2.0 11.0 17.6 4.8 0.1 64.6 0.0%
Mercer 19.3% 19.3% 0.0% 0.2 2.6 8.6 7.0 1.0 80.7 0.0%
Furman 15.9% 15.9% 0.0% 0.1 1.2 4.7 7.3 2.8 84.1 0.0%
Samford 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% 0.1 1.3 4.6 4.4 89.5 0.0%
Wofford 13.1% 13.1% 0.0% 0.2 2.2 6.8 3.8 86.9 0.0%
Western Carolina 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.1 2.7 97.2 0.0%
Chattanooga 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 1.6 98.4 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 1.2 98.7 0.0%
The Citadel 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%
VMI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 96.8% 1.0 3.2 96.8
2nd Round 2.9% 0.0 97.1 2.9
Sweet Sixteen 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
East Tennessee St. 35.4% 0.0% 35.4% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 19.3% 0.1% 19.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 15.9% 0.4% 15.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 10.5% 1.1% 10.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 13.1% 0.7% 12.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 2.8% 2.3% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 1.6% 1.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 1.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%