Western Carolina
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.0#308
Expected Predictive Rating-14.9#350
Pace74.8#46
Improvement+0.3#159

Offense
Total Offense-6.7#343
First Shot-6.5#340
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#199
Layup/Dunks-1.5#240
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#254
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#155
Freethrows-4.5#355
Improvement+1.1#94

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#208
First Shot-3.4#289
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#45
Layups/Dunks+1.0#136
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#238
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#310
Freethrows-0.3#216
Improvement-0.8#251
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 2.4% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 14.5 15.8
.500 or above 1.4% 11.8% 1.4%
.500 or above in Conference 15.0% 34.1% 15.0%
Conference Champion 0.4% 1.2% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 17.1% 1.2% 17.1%
First Four0.6% 0.0% 0.6%
First Round0.5% 2.4% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee (Away) - 0.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 31 - 72 - 14
Quad 46 - 67 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 280   @ Queens L 54-67 32%     0 - 1 -16.2 -27.8 +13.0
  Nov 19, 2024 94   @ Wake Forest L 69-82 7%     0 - 2 -4.2 +3.3 -7.6
  Nov 26, 2024 65   @ Florida St. L 57-91 5%     0 - 3 -22.5 -13.9 -5.8
  Nov 30, 2024 13   @ Marquette L 62-94 2%     0 - 4 -13.7 -9.9 +0.3
  Dec 04, 2024 333   Bellarmine W 86-74 70%     1 - 4 -1.4 +2.4 -4.0
  Dec 07, 2024 334   South Carolina Upstate L 68-74 70%     1 - 5 -19.4 -14.0 -5.2
  Dec 14, 2024 182   @ UNC Asheville L 61-78 18%     1 - 6 -15.1 -13.3 -1.4
  Dec 17, 2024 4   @ Tennessee L 53-84 0.2%   
  Jan 01, 2025 126   Furman L 66-73 25%    
  Jan 04, 2025 109   Samford L 78-87 20%    
  Jan 08, 2025 163   @ Wofford L 66-77 17%    
  Jan 11, 2025 229   Mercer L 74-75 45%    
  Jan 15, 2025 350   @ VMI W 74-73 55%    
  Jan 18, 2025 157   UNC Greensboro L 66-71 32%    
  Jan 22, 2025 147   @ East Tennessee St. L 65-77 15%    
  Jan 25, 2025 345   @ The Citadel W 69-68 53%    
  Jan 29, 2025 178   Chattanooga L 72-76 35%    
  Feb 01, 2025 350   VMI W 77-70 74%    
  Feb 05, 2025 126   @ Furman L 63-76 12%    
  Feb 08, 2025 157   @ UNC Greensboro L 63-74 16%    
  Feb 12, 2025 147   East Tennessee St. L 68-74 31%    
  Feb 15, 2025 345   The Citadel W 72-65 72%    
  Feb 19, 2025 178   @ Chattanooga L 69-79 18%    
  Feb 22, 2025 109   @ Samford L 75-90 9%    
  Feb 26, 2025 163   Wofford L 69-74 34%    
  Mar 01, 2025 229   @ Mercer L 71-78 26%    
Projected Record 7 - 19 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 1.5 0.9 0.1 3.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.2 2.9 0.4 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.8 6.8 3.9 0.8 0.0 17.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 5.3 9.9 9.3 4.2 0.8 0.0 30.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 5.5 6.7 4.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 19.5 9th
10th 0.4 1.9 3.6 2.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 10.2 10th
Total 0.4 2.0 5.3 9.5 13.4 15.6 15.5 13.3 10.0 6.9 4.1 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 92.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0
14-4 59.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 30.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 17.9% 17.9% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.2% 12.1% 12.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 0.5% 7.1% 7.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-6 1.1% 6.6% 6.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
11-7 2.2% 3.6% 3.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.1
10-8 4.1% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.9
9-9 6.9% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.2 6.7
8-10 10.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 9.9
7-11 13.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 13.2
6-12 15.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 15.5
5-13 15.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 15.6
4-14 13.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.3
3-15 9.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.5
2-16 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.3
1-17 2.0% 2.0
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%