Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.9#82
Expected Predictive Rating+6.6#82
Pace74.5#42
Improvement-4.4#332

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#135
First Shot+1.1#137
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#177
Layup/Dunks+3.0#73
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#171
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#324
Freethrows+3.0#36
Improvement-3.8#334

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#45
First Shot+5.2#43
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#134
Layups/Dunks+4.3#46
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#92
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#169
Freethrows-0.8#247
Improvement-0.6#218
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 1.8% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 1.5% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.1 11.0 11.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 13.5% 43.7% 9.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 1.3% 0.1%
First Round0.3% 1.1% 0.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisville (Away) - 13.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 7
Quad 23 - 54 - 12
Quad 38 - 211 - 14
Quad 47 - 118 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 241   Northern Kentucky W 74-62 90%     1 - 0 +5.0 -7.6 +11.6
  Nov 09, 2024 178   Rice W 73-65 77%     2 - 0 +7.1 -3.5 +10.4
  Nov 12, 2024 273   Tarleton St. W 72-52 92%     3 - 0 +11.1 -3.3 +13.7
  Nov 15, 2024 4   Florida L 74-87 12%     3 - 1 +6.7 +5.0 +2.5
  Nov 19, 2024 227   Hofstra W 79-61 88%     4 - 1 +11.9 +8.1 +4.0
  Nov 22, 2024 155   Temple W 78-69 73%     5 - 1 +9.5 -0.9 +9.9
  Nov 24, 2024 168   Massachusetts W 92-59 76%     6 - 1 +32.6 +17.8 +13.7
  Nov 26, 2024 333   Western Carolina W 91-57 96%     7 - 1 +20.7 +5.0 +12.9
  Dec 03, 2024 72   @ LSU L 75-85 37%     7 - 2 +0.4 +5.2 -4.3
  Dec 07, 2024 103   @ North Carolina St. L 74-84 OT 50%     7 - 3 0 - 1 -3.2 +6.0 -9.3
  Dec 14, 2024 144   Tulane W 77-64 71%     8 - 3 +14.0 +5.3 +8.8
  Dec 17, 2024 196   Winthrop W 82-64 86%     9 - 3 +13.4 -1.5 +13.4
  Dec 21, 2024 21   Louisville L 76-90 27%     9 - 4 0 - 2 -0.8 +11.5 -12.7
  Jan 04, 2025 108   Syracuse W 90-74 72%     10 - 4 1 - 2 +17.0 +15.8 +1.0
  Jan 08, 2025 152   @ Miami (FL) W 80-65 64%     11 - 4 2 - 2 +18.1 +0.7 +16.8
  Jan 11, 2025 23   @ Clemson L 57-77 15%     11 - 5 2 - 3 -1.9 -0.3 -4.0
  Jan 15, 2025 52   Pittsburgh W 82-70 45%     12 - 5 3 - 3 +20.1 +3.0 +15.8
  Jan 18, 2025 99   Georgia Tech W 91-78 67%     13 - 5 4 - 3 +15.3 +17.9 -2.9
  Jan 22, 2025 112   @ California L 68-77 54%     13 - 6 4 - 4 -3.2 +0.6 -4.4
  Jan 25, 2025 88   @ Stanford L 71-78 42%     13 - 7 4 - 5 +1.9 +3.0 -1.3
  Jan 29, 2025 128   Virginia Tech L 66-76 77%     13 - 8 4 - 6 -10.8 -6.1 -4.9
  Feb 01, 2025 174   @ Boston College L 76-77 69%     13 - 9 4 - 7 +0.9 +2.3 -1.3
  Feb 04, 2025 95   Notre Dame W 67-60 66%     14 - 9 5 - 7 +9.6 -5.5 +15.1
  Feb 12, 2025 55   @ Wake Forest W 72-70 27%     15 - 9 6 - 7 +15.1 +11.1 +4.2
  Feb 15, 2025 23   Clemson L 46-72 28%     15 - 10 6 - 8 -13.0 -16.6 +1.2
  Feb 19, 2025 152   Miami (FL) W 74-66 80%     16 - 10 7 - 8 +6.1 -7.2 +13.0
  Feb 22, 2025 21   @ Louisville L 70-81 13%    
  Feb 24, 2025 40   North Carolina L 77-80 42%    
  Mar 01, 2025 2   @ Duke L 63-82 3%    
  Mar 04, 2025 93   @ Virginia L 65-66 46%    
  Mar 08, 2025 37   SMU L 76-79 40%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.8 6th
7th 0.5 3.0 1.0 0.0 4.5 7th
8th 0.2 5.5 5.4 0.2 11.3 8th
9th 0.0 5.6 16.7 2.9 0.0 25.2 9th
10th 1.0 19.6 8.9 0.2 29.6 10th
11th 4.9 9.9 0.5 15.3 11th
12th 7.5 1.7 0.0 9.2 12th
13th 3.5 0.1 3.6 13th
14th 0.5 0.5 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 17.4 37.0 32.1 11.8 1.7 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.1% 0.0 0.0
11-9 1.7% 8.7% 1.7% 7.0% 10.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.6 7.1%
10-10 11.8% 1.4% 0.3% 1.1% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 11.6 1.1%
9-11 32.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 11.5 0.1 0.1 31.9 0.2%
8-12 37.0% 0.1% 0.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 37.0
7-13 17.4% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 17.4
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 11.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 99.5 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 7.7%