Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.5#65
Expected Predictive Rating+7.9#81
Pace75.6#34
Improvement-1.0#254

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#88
First Shot+2.3#113
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#123
Layup/Dunks+3.9#57
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#156
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#338
Freethrows+4.0#15
Improvement+1.4#76

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#50
First Shot+5.0#39
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#177
Layups/Dunks+2.8#84
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#57
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#125
Freethrows-1.0#254
Improvement-2.4#329
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.3% 16.3% 7.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 13.8% 14.7% 6.8%
Average Seed 9.7 9.7 10.1
.500 or above 88.3% 90.1% 74.3%
.500 or above in Conference 56.2% 57.6% 45.4%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.6% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 1.9% 3.8%
First Four5.8% 6.1% 3.6%
First Round12.3% 13.2% 5.5%
Second Round5.7% 6.2% 2.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 1.6% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Winthrop (Home) - 88.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 7
Quad 25 - 56 - 11
Quad 37 - 214 - 13
Quad 46 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 216   Northern Kentucky W 74-62 90%     1 - 0 +6.3 -6.2 +11.4
  Nov 09, 2024 197   Rice W 73-65 83%     2 - 0 +6.3 -1.2 +7.3
  Nov 12, 2024 303   Tarleton St. W 72-52 95%     3 - 0 +9.4 -6.1 +14.7
  Nov 15, 2024 8   Florida L 74-87 27%     3 - 1 +1.9 +2.0 +0.7
  Nov 19, 2024 156   Hofstra W 79-61 86%     4 - 1 +15.1 +8.6 +6.7
  Nov 22, 2024 118   Temple W 78-69 71%     5 - 1 +11.9 +2.9 +8.5
  Nov 24, 2024 200   Massachusetts W 92-59 83%     6 - 1 +31.2 +15.0 +15.0
  Nov 26, 2024 308   Western Carolina W 91-57 95%     7 - 1 +23.0 +7.9 +12.3
  Dec 03, 2024 60   @ LSU L 75-85 36%     7 - 2 +2.1 +5.4 -2.9
  Dec 07, 2024 79   @ North Carolina St. L 74-84 OT 44%     7 - 3 0 - 1 +0.1 +6.9 -7.0
  Dec 14, 2024 203   Tulane W 77-64 84%     8 - 3 +10.9 +3.7 +7.3
  Dec 17, 2024 181   Winthrop W 87-74 88%    
  Dec 21, 2024 50   Louisville W 77-76 55%    
  Jan 04, 2025 97   Syracuse W 83-77 72%    
  Jan 07, 2025 91   @ Miami (FL) L 77-78 48%    
  Jan 11, 2025 30   @ Clemson L 68-75 25%    
  Jan 15, 2025 32   Pittsburgh L 75-76 47%    
  Jan 18, 2025 110   Georgia Tech W 80-72 76%    
  Jan 22, 2025 120   @ California W 81-78 60%    
  Jan 25, 2025 87   @ Stanford L 76-77 48%    
  Jan 29, 2025 125   Virginia Tech W 77-68 80%    
  Feb 01, 2025 150   @ Boston College W 76-71 68%    
  Feb 04, 2025 81   Notre Dame W 75-70 66%    
  Feb 12, 2025 94   @ Wake Forest L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 15, 2025 30   Clemson L 71-72 46%    
  Feb 19, 2025 91   Miami (FL) W 81-75 69%    
  Feb 22, 2025 50   @ Louisville L 74-79 34%    
  Feb 24, 2025 18   North Carolina L 81-84 39%    
  Mar 01, 2025 2   @ Duke L 65-80 9%    
  Mar 04, 2025 93   @ Virginia L 63-64 49%    
  Mar 07, 2025 49   SMU W 79-78 54%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.1 3rd
4th 0.2 1.5 3.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 6.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 3.8 2.6 0.4 0.0 7.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.5 3.7 0.8 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.1 2.5 4.8 1.5 0.1 9.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 4.7 2.8 0.3 0.0 8.8 8th
9th 0.3 3.1 4.3 0.7 0.0 8.5 9th
10th 0.0 1.4 4.7 1.9 0.0 8.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 3.4 3.0 0.3 0.0 7.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.7 1.0 0.0 6.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 3.1 1.9 0.1 5.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.4 0.4 0.0 4.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 0.9 0.0 3.7 15th
16th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.9 0.1 2.8 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.0 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 18th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.3 5.4 8.5 11.2 13.0 14.3 13.2 11.1 8.2 5.0 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 74.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 50.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
16-4 16.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 4.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 19.4% 80.6% 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.4% 99.0% 12.4% 86.6% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.8%
16-4 1.2% 92.4% 12.5% 80.0% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 91.3%
15-5 2.7% 81.1% 9.3% 71.8% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.5 79.1%
14-6 5.0% 63.1% 6.6% 56.5% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.0 1.9 60.5%
13-7 8.2% 40.1% 3.9% 36.2% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.1 4.9 37.7%
12-8 11.1% 23.4% 2.1% 21.3% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 0.2 8.5 21.8%
11-9 13.2% 11.5% 1.4% 10.1% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.1 11.6 10.3%
10-10 14.3% 5.4% 0.8% 4.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 13.5 4.6%
9-11 13.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.9 0.5%
8-12 11.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 11.2 0.1%
7-13 8.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 8.5 0.0%
6-14 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 5.4
5-15 3.3% 3.3
4-16 1.5% 1.5
3-17 0.6% 0.6
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 15.3% 1.7% 13.5% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.2 3.6 5.9 0.5 0.0 84.7 13.8%