IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	+7.4	#78
Expected Predictive Rating	-0.4	#202

Pace	55.1	#364
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.9	#152

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+6.5	#21

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.4%	0.7%	0.1%
Top 4 Seed	1.5%	2.5%	0.5%
Top 6 Seed	4.0%	6.1%	1.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid	20.1%	27.6%	12.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	18.5%	25.5%	11.6%
Average Seed	8.4	8.2	8.9

.500 or above	62.9%	75.5%	50.4%
.500 or above in Conference	45.6%	53.3%	38.0%
Conference Champion	2.0%	2.9%	1.1%
Last Place in Conference	6.6%	4.5%	8.7%

First Four	3.4%	4.3%	2.4%
First Round	18.4%	25.3%	11.4%
Second Round	9.4%	13.3%	5.4%
Sweet Sixteen	3.2%	4.9%	1.6%
Elite Eight	1.3%	1.9%	0.7%
Final Four	0.4%	0.7%	0.2%
Championship Game	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
National Champion	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%

Next Game: Villanova (Neutral) - 49.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	1 - 5	1 - 5
Quad 1b	2 - 4	3 - 8
Quad 2	4 - 4	7 - 13
Quad 3	4 - 2	11 - 14
Quad 4	6 - 0	17 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2024	304	Campbell	W	65-56	94%	1 - 0			-1.3	+0.1	+0.3
Nov 11, 2024	363	Coppin St.	W	62-45	99%	2 - 0			-4.2	-10.2	+7.7
Nov 15, 2024	77	Villanova	L	60-61	50%
Nov 21, 2024	9	Tennessee	L	56-65	19%
Nov 26, 2024	334	Manhattan	W	71-50	97%
Nov 29, 2024	343	Holy Cross	W	72-50	98%
Dec 04, 2024	21	@ Florida	L	62-71	22%
Dec 07, 2024	63	@ SMU	L	64-68	35%
Dec 12, 2024	291	Bethune-Cookman	W	70-53	94%
Dec 18, 2024	34	Memphis	L	65-66	47%
Dec 22, 2024	255	American	W	65-50	91%
Dec 31, 2024	59	North Carolina St.	W	63-61	56%
Jan 04, 2025	49	Louisville	W	64-63	52%
Jan 08, 2025	119	@ California	W	64-63	54%
Jan 11, 2025	70	@ Stanford	L	59-63	38%
Jan 15, 2025	63	SMU	W	67-65	56%
Jan 18, 2025	49	@ Louisville	L	61-66	32%
Jan 21, 2025	144	Boston College	W	64-55	79%
Jan 25, 2025	81	Notre Dame	W	61-58	61%
Jan 29, 2025	33	@ Miami (FL)	L	60-67	27%
Feb 01, 2025	82	Virginia Tech	W	63-60	61%
Feb 03, 2025	35	@ Pittsburgh	L	59-66	28%
Feb 08, 2025	96	Georgia Tech	W	68-63	66%
Feb 15, 2025	82	@ Virginia Tech	L	60-63	41%
Feb 17, 2025	6	Duke	L	58-66	26%
Feb 22, 2025	10	@ North Carolina	L	59-71	15%
Feb 26, 2025	62	@ Wake Forest	L	61-65	36%
Mar 01, 2025	44	Clemson	W	61-60	50%
Mar 04, 2025	80	Florida St.	W	64-61	60%
Mar 08, 2025	89	@ Syracuse	L	64-65	45%
Projected Record						16 - 14	9 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0		2.0	1st
2nd													0.0	0.2	1.0	1.3	0.8	0.2	0.0				3.6	2nd
3rd												0.0	0.2	1.3	1.9	1.0	0.2	0.0					4.5	3rd
4th												0.1	1.1	2.4	1.4	0.2	0.0						5.3	4th
5th											0.0	0.7	2.6	1.8	0.3	0.0							5.4	5th
6th										0.0	0.4	2.4	2.7	0.5	0.0								6.1	6th
7th										0.1	1.5	3.3	1.2	0.1									6.2	7th
8th									0.0	0.6	3.3	2.4	0.2	0.0									6.5	8th
9th									0.1	2.2	3.6	0.8	0.0										6.7	9th
10th								0.0	1.0	3.7	1.8	0.1											6.7	10th
11th							0.0	0.3	2.8	3.3	0.4												6.8	11th
12th						0.0	0.1	1.4	3.8	1.4	0.1												6.8	12th
13th						0.0	0.7	3.1	2.5	0.3	0.0												6.6	13th
14th					0.0	0.3	2.1	3.2	0.8	0.0													6.4	14th
15th				0.0	0.2	1.5	2.9	1.4	0.1														6.1	15th
16th			0.0	0.2	1.2	2.3	1.8	0.3	0.0													5.9	16th
17th		0.0	0.2	1.0	1.9	1.5	0.4	0.0														5.0	17th
18th	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.1	0.8	0.2	0.0															3.5	18th

Total	0.1	0.4	1.1	2.4	4.1	5.8	8.0	9.7	11.2	11.6	11.1	9.9	8.1	6.3	4.6	2.9	1.6	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0		Total

Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1	0.0
18-2	86.9%	0.3		0.2	0.1	0.0
17-3	65.1%	0.5		0.3	0.2	0.0
16-4	38.5%	0.6		0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0
15-5	11.7%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
14-6	1.9%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
13-7	0.2%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	2.0%	2.0		1.0	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%							0.0	0.0
19-1	0.1%		100.0%	23.1%	76.9%	2.3		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0														100.0%
18-2	0.4%		100.0%	29.0%	71.0%	3.0		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0												100.0%
17-3	0.8%		100.0%	19.1%	80.9%	4.4		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0								100.0%
16-4	1.6%		98.1%	14.2%	83.9%	5.9		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0						0.0		97.8%
15-5	2.9%		92.1%	12.6%	79.5%	7.1			0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.2	0.1						0.2		91.0%
14-6	4.6%		80.2%	7.0%	73.1%	8.2				0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.8	0.8	0.5	0.3	0.0					0.9		78.7%
13-7	6.3%		62.0%	4.3%	57.7%	9.1					0.0	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.8	0.8	1.0	0.7	0.1					2.4		60.3%
12-8	8.1%		42.7%	2.7%	40.0%	9.8					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	1.0	1.0	0.1					4.6		41.1%
11-9	9.9%		22.8%	1.7%	21.1%	10.2							0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	1.0	0.1					7.6		21.5%
10-10	11.1%		9.3%	0.6%	8.7%	10.5									0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.1	0.0				10.0		8.7%
9-11	11.6%		2.5%	0.6%	1.9%	10.8										0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1					11.3		1.9%
8-12	11.2%		0.4%	0.1%	0.2%	11.3											0.0	0.0	0.0					11.2		0.2%
7-13	9.7%		0.2%	0.2%		11.6											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				9.7
6-14	8.0%		0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	11.5												0.0	0.0					8.0		0.0%
5-15	5.8%																							5.8
4-16	4.1%																							4.1
3-17	2.4%																							2.4
2-18	1.1%																							1.1
1-19	0.4%																							0.4
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		20.1%	2.0%	18.1%	8.4		0.1	0.3	0.4	0.7	1.1	1.4	2.1	2.9	3.2	3.7	3.8	0.5	0.0				79.9		18.5%