Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.5#107
Expected Predictive Rating+3.7#112
Pace55.1#363
Improvement-2.3#286

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#204
First Shot+1.0#145
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#300
Layup/Dunks-2.3#271
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#239
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#33
Freethrows-1.2#268
Improvement-0.8#230

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#59
First Shot+2.9#90
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#60
Layups/Dunks+1.3#119
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#27
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#318
Freethrows+3.3#12
Improvement-1.6#271
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.2 11.2 n/a
.500 or above 10.5% 12.6% 3.4%
.500 or above in Conference 2.6% 3.2% 0.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.8% 6.0% 27.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boston College (Home) - 77.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 10
Quad 21 - 62 - 15
Quad 33 - 36 - 18
Quad 48 - 013 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 252   Campbell W 65-56 85%     1 - 0 +1.2 +2.8 +0.1
  Nov 11, 2024 362   Coppin St. W 62-45 97%     2 - 0 -2.8 -10.4 +9.3
  Nov 15, 2024 42   Villanova W 70-60 22%     3 - 0 +21.6 +7.1 +15.7
  Nov 21, 2024 8   Tennessee L 42-64 8%     3 - 1 -3.3 -13.4 +6.7
  Nov 22, 2024 16   St. John's L 55-80 12%     3 - 2 -8.5 -0.7 -10.8
  Nov 26, 2024 297   Manhattan W 74-65 90%     4 - 2 -1.4 +2.2 -2.5
  Nov 29, 2024 319   Holy Cross W 67-41 92%     5 - 2 +14.2 -0.2 +20.0
  Dec 04, 2024 5   @ Florida L 69-87 4%     5 - 3 +5.2 +12.1 -8.5
  Dec 07, 2024 37   @ SMU L 51-63 14%     5 - 4 0 - 1 +3.0 -10.7 +12.4
  Dec 12, 2024 255   Bethune-Cookman W 59-41 86%     6 - 4 +9.9 -0.4 +14.4
  Dec 18, 2024 43   Memphis L 62-64 30%     6 - 5 +6.8 -0.3 +6.9
  Dec 22, 2024 236   American W 63-58 84%     7 - 5 -2.0 -1.0 +0.0
  Dec 31, 2024 93   North Carolina St. W 70-67 51%     8 - 5 1 - 1 +6.3 +11.9 -5.0
  Jan 04, 2025 27   Louisville L 50-70 24%     8 - 6 1 - 2 -9.0 -9.8 -2.7
  Jan 08, 2025 118   @ California L 61-75 42%     8 - 7 1 - 3 -8.5 -6.3 -3.4
  Jan 11, 2025 87   @ Stanford L 65-88 29%     8 - 8 1 - 4 -13.8 +5.7 -23.4
  Jan 15, 2025 37   SMU L 52-54 28%     8 - 9 1 - 5 +7.5 -10.6 +17.8
  Jan 18, 2025 27   @ Louisville L 67-81 12%     8 - 10 1 - 6 +2.4 +1.4 +1.0
  Jan 21, 2025 195   Boston College W 66-58 78%    
  Jan 25, 2025 77   Notre Dame L 61-62 47%    
  Jan 29, 2025 155   @ Miami (FL) W 67-66 49%    
  Feb 01, 2025 137   Virginia Tech W 64-59 66%    
  Feb 03, 2025 40   @ Pittsburgh L 58-69 15%    
  Feb 08, 2025 104   Georgia Tech W 64-62 60%    
  Feb 15, 2025 137   @ Virginia Tech L 61-62 45%    
  Feb 17, 2025 1   Duke L 52-70 6%    
  Feb 22, 2025 26   @ North Carolina L 59-72 11%    
  Feb 26, 2025 59   @ Wake Forest L 56-65 20%    
  Mar 01, 2025 30   Clemson L 56-63 26%    
  Mar 04, 2025 58   Florida St. L 63-66 39%    
  Mar 08, 2025 103   @ Syracuse L 63-66 37%    
Projected Record 13 - 18 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.1 8th
9th 0.3 1.7 0.7 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.3 2.2 2.6 0.2 0.0 5.3 10th
11th 0.0 2.2 4.4 1.2 0.0 7.8 11th
12th 0.0 1.0 5.6 3.2 0.2 10.0 12th
13th 0.4 4.9 6.7 1.0 0.0 13.0 13th
14th 0.0 2.5 8.3 3.0 0.1 13.9 14th
15th 0.0 1.4 7.8 6.0 0.4 0.0 15.6 15th
16th 0.0 1.2 6.2 7.8 1.3 0.0 16.4 16th
17th 0.0 0.6 3.0 4.2 1.0 0.0 8.8 17th
18th 0.3 1.4 2.0 0.6 0.1 4.4 18th
Total 0.3 2.1 6.2 12.4 19.5 21.4 18.2 11.2 6.1 1.9 0.6 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.1% 0.0 0.1
11-9 0.6% 0.6
10-10 1.9% 0.5% 0.5% 11.0 0.0 1.9
9-11 6.1% 0.3% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 6.1
8-12 11.2% 11.2
7-13 18.2% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 18.2
6-14 21.4% 21.4
5-15 19.5% 19.5
4-16 12.4% 12.4
3-17 6.2% 6.2
2-18 2.1% 2.1
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%