Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.2#93
Expected Predictive Rating+5.6#88
Pace55.3#363
Improvement+1.0#143

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#90
First Shot+4.7#64
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#273
Layup/Dunks-1.2#226
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#223
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.4#13
Freethrows-0.7#228
Improvement+5.1#16

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#112
First Shot+0.7#158
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#73
Layups/Dunks+0.5#150
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#33
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#339
Freethrows+3.2#15
Improvement-4.1#344
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.6 11.0 11.8
.500 or above 25.5% 57.0% 18.9%
.500 or above in Conference 3.8% 14.1% 1.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina (Away) - 17.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 10
Quad 21 - 53 - 14
Quad 35 - 38 - 17
Quad 47 - 115 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 183   Campbell W 65-56 80%     1 - 0 +5.2 +5.2 +1.8
  Nov 11, 2024 362   Coppin St. W 62-45 98%     2 - 0 -4.0 -10.3 +8.0
  Nov 15, 2024 43   Villanova W 70-60 26%     3 - 0 +21.8 +8.4 +14.5
  Nov 21, 2024 5   Tennessee L 42-64 9%     3 - 1 -2.1 -11.5 +5.9
  Nov 22, 2024 14   St. John's L 55-80 12%     3 - 2 -7.1 +1.8 -11.9
  Nov 26, 2024 263   Manhattan W 74-65 89%     4 - 2 +1.0 +3.9 -1.8
  Nov 29, 2024 317   Holy Cross W 67-41 93%     5 - 2 +14.3 +1.9 +18.0
  Dec 04, 2024 4   @ Florida L 69-87 4%     5 - 3 +6.8 +13.1 -7.9
  Dec 07, 2024 37   @ SMU L 51-63 18%     5 - 4 0 - 1 +3.1 -10.5 +12.3
  Dec 12, 2024 293   Bethune-Cookman W 59-41 91%     6 - 4 +8.1 -3.5 +15.6
  Dec 18, 2024 47   Memphis L 62-64 37%     6 - 5 +6.6 +0.3 +6.1
  Dec 22, 2024 247   American W 63-58 88%     7 - 5 -2.4 -1.6 +0.3
  Dec 31, 2024 103   North Carolina St. W 70-67 63%     8 - 5 1 - 1 +4.7 +12.6 -7.3
  Jan 04, 2025 21   Louisville L 50-70 22%     8 - 6 1 - 2 -6.8 -8.4 -1.8
  Jan 08, 2025 112   @ California L 61-75 48%     8 - 7 1 - 3 -8.2 -6.1 -3.3
  Jan 11, 2025 88   @ Stanford L 65-88 36%     8 - 8 1 - 4 -14.1 +6.7 -24.7
  Jan 15, 2025 37   SMU L 52-54 32%     8 - 9 1 - 5 +8.0 -10.2 +17.9
  Jan 18, 2025 21   @ Louisville L 67-81 11%     8 - 10 1 - 6 +4.3 +2.6 +1.7
  Jan 21, 2025 174   Boston College W 74-56 79%     9 - 10 2 - 6 +14.8 +9.8 +7.5
  Jan 25, 2025 95   Notre Dame L 59-74 60%     9 - 11 2 - 7 -12.4 -2.0 -13.4
  Jan 29, 2025 152   @ Miami (FL) W 82-71 58%     10 - 11 3 - 7 +14.1 +20.5 -4.4
  Feb 01, 2025 128   Virginia Tech L 74-75 72%     10 - 12 3 - 8 -1.8 +12.4 -14.4
  Feb 03, 2025 52   @ Pittsburgh W 73-57 22%     11 - 12 4 - 8 +29.2 +19.2 +13.1
  Feb 08, 2025 99   Georgia Tech W 75-61 61%     12 - 12 5 - 8 +16.3 +18.9 +0.1
  Feb 15, 2025 128   @ Virginia Tech W 73-70 53%     13 - 12 6 - 8 +7.3 +13.4 -5.6
  Feb 17, 2025 2   Duke L 62-80 8%     13 - 13 6 - 9 +3.0 +7.8 -7.6
  Feb 22, 2025 40   @ North Carolina L 65-74 17%    
  Feb 26, 2025 55   @ Wake Forest L 59-67 21%    
  Mar 01, 2025 23   Clemson L 59-67 25%    
  Mar 04, 2025 82   Florida St. W 66-65 54%    
  Mar 08, 2025 108   @ Syracuse L 67-68 45%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.2 0.3 6th
7th 0.3 0.9 0.1 1.3 7th
8th 0.2 2.6 1.6 0.0 4.3 8th
9th 0.0 4.0 8.2 0.8 13.0 9th
10th 1.0 14.9 4.9 0.0 20.8 10th
11th 7.6 10.6 0.4 18.6 11th
12th 0.5 15.3 2.2 0.0 18.0 12th
13th 3.3 8.9 0.2 12.4 13th
14th 6.1 1.4 7.5 14th
15th 3.4 0.0 3.4 15th
16th 0.3 0.3 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 13.6 34.3 32.0 16.3 3.4 0.4 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.4% 0.4
10-10 3.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.6% 11.0 0.0 3.4 0.6%
9-11 16.3% 16.3
8-12 32.0% 32.0
7-13 34.3% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 34.3
6-14 13.6% 0.1% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 13.6
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 8.1%