Manhattan
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.8#316
Expected Predictive Rating-7.5#297
Pace70.8#127
Improvement-0.5#222

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#245
First Shot+0.3#160
After Offensive Rebound-3.0#331
Layup/Dunks-1.4#233
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#149
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#113
Freethrows-0.6#215
Improvement+0.4#147

Defense
Total Defense-6.1#347
First Shot-3.4#288
After Offensive Rebounds-2.7#337
Layups/Dunks-7.6#358
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#188
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#60
Freethrows+0.8#129
Improvement-0.9#264
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 3.3% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 17.2% 28.9% 11.7%
.500 or above in Conference 34.0% 42.1% 30.2%
Conference Champion 2.0% 3.1% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 12.4% 9.2% 14.0%
First Four1.6% 1.8% 1.5%
First Round1.6% 2.3% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wagner (Away) - 31.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 32 - 5
Quad 410 - 1311 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 19   @ Maryland L 49-79 2%     0 - 1 -12.6 -15.6 +3.7
  Nov 15, 2024 172   Fordham W 78-76 31%     1 - 1 -1.8 -0.8 -1.1
  Nov 17, 2024 339   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 82-85 48%     1 - 2 -11.2 +4.1 -15.3
  Nov 22, 2024 305   Army W 80-79 58%     2 - 2 -9.8 -0.7 -9.1
  Nov 26, 2024 93   @ Virginia L 65-74 6%     2 - 3 -0.2 +8.4 -9.7
  Nov 29, 2024 338   Le Moyne L 77-81 70%     2 - 4 -18.1 -6.2 -11.6
  Dec 06, 2024 221   @ St. Peter's W 70-67 20%     3 - 4 1 - 0 +3.1 +0.9 +2.2
  Dec 08, 2024 236   Marist L 75-82 43%     3 - 5 1 - 1 -14.0 +3.1 -17.4
  Dec 18, 2024 290   @ Wagner L 60-65 32%    
  Dec 21, 2024 250   @ Presbyterian L 71-78 26%    
  Jan 03, 2025 283   @ Siena L 68-73 31%    
  Jan 05, 2025 288   @ Rider L 69-74 32%    
  Jan 10, 2025 266   Mount St. Mary's L 75-76 50%    
  Jan 12, 2025 217   @ Merrimack L 65-74 20%    
  Jan 18, 2025 314   Niagara W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 23, 2025 292   Fairfield W 77-76 54%    
  Jan 25, 2025 266   @ Mount St. Mary's L 72-78 29%    
  Jan 31, 2025 257   Iona L 73-74 49%    
  Feb 02, 2025 277   @ Sacred Heart L 75-81 30%    
  Feb 08, 2025 221   St. Peter's L 67-70 39%    
  Feb 14, 2025 217   Merrimack L 68-71 39%    
  Feb 16, 2025 292   @ Fairfield L 74-79 33%    
  Feb 21, 2025 257   @ Iona L 71-77 28%    
  Feb 23, 2025 238   Quinnipiac L 76-78 44%    
  Feb 28, 2025 352   @ Canisius W 76-75 53%    
  Mar 02, 2025 314   @ Niagara L 70-73 39%    
  Mar 06, 2025 277   Sacred Heart W 78-77 51%    
  Mar 08, 2025 283   Siena W 71-70 53%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.0 2.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 5.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 3.4 1.2 0.1 6.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.0 2.4 0.2 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.4 3.9 0.5 0.0 8.2 7th
8th 0.2 2.4 5.0 1.4 0.0 9.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.2 2.8 0.2 9.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.7 4.3 0.6 0.0 11.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.4 4.7 1.3 0.0 12.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.5 4.6 4.1 1.3 0.1 13.5 12th
13th 0.2 0.8 1.7 2.3 1.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 7.1 13th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.4 5.0 8.0 10.6 12.6 13.6 12.7 11.3 8.7 6.1 4.0 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 93.8% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 83.7% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 58.8% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 25.3% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 6.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.0% 2.0 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.2% 20.0% 20.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.4% 14.9% 14.9% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
15-5 1.1% 21.2% 21.2% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8
14-6 2.2% 13.1% 13.1% 15.8 0.1 0.2 1.9
13-7 4.0% 10.3% 10.3% 15.9 0.0 0.4 3.5
12-8 6.1% 6.6% 6.6% 15.9 0.0 0.4 5.7
11-9 8.7% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4 8.4
10-10 11.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 11.1
9-11 12.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 12.5
8-12 13.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 13.5
7-13 12.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 12.6
6-14 10.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.5
5-15 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.0
4-16 5.0% 5.0
3-17 2.4% 2.4
2-18 0.9% 0.9
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.1 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%