Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.8#217
Expected Predictive Rating-0.7#180
Pace64.0#310
Improvement+1.0#114

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#300
First Shot-2.9#256
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#275
Layup/Dunks-4.7#322
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#38
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#173
Freethrows-1.3#261
Improvement+2.5#26

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#119
First Shot+2.6#102
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#265
Layups/Dunks-0.3#176
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#190
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#65
Freethrows-0.3#212
Improvement-1.5#297
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.6% 22.4% 16.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 14.8 15.3
.500 or above 69.5% 86.4% 67.0%
.500 or above in Conference 92.3% 95.8% 91.8%
Conference Champion 34.0% 43.1% 32.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Four3.6% 1.7% 3.9%
First Round16.0% 21.7% 15.2%
Second Round0.4% 0.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stanford (Away) - 13.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 32 - 42 - 9
Quad 415 - 618 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 194   Vermont W 65-51 57%     1 - 0 +9.4 -0.4 +11.1
  Nov 13, 2024 55   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 42-63 8%     1 - 1 -8.2 -23.0 +15.1
  Nov 17, 2024 119   Princeton L 57-68 40%     1 - 2 -11.2 -7.0 -6.2
  Nov 20, 2024 62   @ Rutgers L 63-74 9%     1 - 3 +0.8 -1.9 +2.3
  Nov 22, 2024 74   @ Butler L 39-78 11%     1 - 4 -28.6 -23.8 -10.6
  Nov 25, 2024 151   @ Umass Lowell L 74-81 28%     1 - 5 -3.6 -2.5 -0.8
  Nov 27, 2024 234   Texas San Antonio L 74-76 54%     1 - 6 -5.9 -7.7 +2.0
  Nov 29, 2024 127   @ Troy W 72-68 22%     2 - 6 +9.2 +10.0 -0.4
  Dec 06, 2024 352   @ Canisius W 60-52 75%     3 - 6 1 - 0 -1.7 -15.9 +14.7
  Dec 08, 2024 314   @ Niagara W 80-62 61%     4 - 6 2 - 0 +12.3 +22.9 -6.1
  Dec 13, 2024 252   Boston University W 64-61 70%     5 - 6 -5.2 +2.0 -6.5
  Dec 17, 2024 87   @ Stanford L 62-74 13%    
  Dec 19, 2024 41   @ St. Mary's L 53-70 5%    
  Jan 03, 2025 292   Fairfield W 72-65 75%    
  Jan 10, 2025 277   @ Sacred Heart W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 12, 2025 316   Manhattan W 74-65 80%    
  Jan 16, 2025 238   @ Quinnipiac L 68-70 43%    
  Jan 18, 2025 283   Siena W 66-59 73%    
  Jan 23, 2025 221   @ St. Peter's L 59-62 40%    
  Jan 25, 2025 292   @ Fairfield W 69-68 54%    
  Jan 31, 2025 266   Mount St. Mary's W 70-64 71%    
  Feb 02, 2025 288   @ Rider W 64-63 54%    
  Feb 06, 2025 314   Niagara W 69-60 79%    
  Feb 08, 2025 352   Canisius W 74-61 88%    
  Feb 14, 2025 316   @ Manhattan W 71-68 61%    
  Feb 16, 2025 236   Marist W 64-60 65%    
  Feb 21, 2025 277   Sacred Heart W 72-66 72%    
  Feb 23, 2025 257   @ Iona L 65-66 49%    
  Feb 28, 2025 288   Rider W 67-60 73%    
  Mar 02, 2025 238   Quinnipiac W 71-67 65%    
  Mar 06, 2025 236   @ Marist L 61-63 43%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 4.7 8.3 8.7 6.4 3.3 1.2 0.2 34.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 5.2 7.4 4.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 19.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 4.1 5.7 2.5 0.4 0.0 13.1 3rd
4th 0.1 2.2 4.8 2.1 0.3 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.8 2.1 0.2 0.0 7.1 5th
6th 0.2 2.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 5.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 2.3 0.6 0.0 3.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.6 0.9 0.1 2.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.1 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.9 6.5 9.5 12.5 14.4 14.9 13.1 10.1 6.6 3.3 1.2 0.2 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
18-2 99.6% 3.3    3.2 0.1
17-3 96.4% 6.4    5.9 0.5 0.0
16-4 86.2% 8.7    6.8 1.8 0.1
15-5 63.4% 8.3    4.6 3.2 0.5 0.0
14-6 31.6% 4.7    1.4 2.1 1.0 0.2 0.0
13-7 7.9% 1.1    0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 34.0% 34.0 23.4 7.9 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 45.8% 45.8% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
19-1 1.2% 43.8% 43.8% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6
18-2 3.3% 36.0% 36.0% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.0 2.1
17-3 6.6% 30.0% 30.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.1 4.7
16-4 10.1% 26.8% 26.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 0.5 7.4
15-5 13.1% 24.7% 24.7% 15.3 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.3 9.9
14-6 14.9% 19.3% 19.3% 15.6 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.8 12.0
13-7 14.4% 16.2% 16.2% 15.8 0.0 0.5 1.8 12.0
12-8 12.5% 11.6% 11.6% 15.9 0.2 1.2 11.0
11-9 9.5% 8.2% 8.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8 8.7
10-10 6.5% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.3 6.2
9-11 3.9% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.1 3.8
8-12 2.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.1
7-13 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0
6-14 0.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 17.6% 17.6% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.4 6.6 8.1 82.4 0.0%