Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.5#206
Expected Predictive Rating+5.3#96
Pace68.0#218
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-6.4#340
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#72
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.9% 18.2% 11.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.5 15.0
.500 or above 57.2% 73.8% 48.1%
.500 or above in Conference 80.6% 87.5% 76.8%
Conference Champion 19.0% 25.5% 15.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 0.7% 2.1%
First Four1.9% 1.5% 2.1%
First Round12.9% 17.5% 10.4%
Second Round0.8% 1.3% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Princeton (Home) - 35.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 31 - 6
Quad 33 - 43 - 10
Quad 414 - 617 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 139   Vermont W 65-51 47%     1 - 0 +12.3 +0.0 +13.7
  Nov 13, 2024 54   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 42-63 9%     1 - 1 -8.7 -23.4 +15.0
  Nov 17, 2024 107   Princeton L 66-70 36%    
  Nov 20, 2024 37   @ Rutgers L 56-73 6%    
  Nov 22, 2024 93   @ Butler L 62-73 16%    
  Nov 25, 2024 138   @ Umass Lowell L 66-73 27%    
  Nov 27, 2024 238   Texas San Antonio W 71-70 53%    
  Nov 29, 2024 121   @ Troy L 61-70 22%    
  Dec 06, 2024 318   @ Canisius W 67-64 61%    
  Dec 08, 2024 320   @ Niagara W 67-64 62%    
  Dec 13, 2024 305   Boston University W 68-60 76%    
  Dec 17, 2024 70   @ Stanford L 59-72 12%    
  Dec 19, 2024 40   @ St. Mary's L 56-72 7%    
  Jan 03, 2025 258   Fairfield W 68-62 69%    
  Jan 10, 2025 335   @ Sacred Heart W 73-68 66%    
  Jan 12, 2025 334   Manhattan W 71-60 82%    
  Jan 16, 2025 247   @ Quinnipiac L 69-70 45%    
  Jan 18, 2025 308   Siena W 68-60 76%    
  Jan 23, 2025 187   @ St. Peter's L 58-62 36%    
  Jan 25, 2025 258   @ Fairfield L 64-65 48%    
  Jan 31, 2025 256   Mount St. Mary's W 69-64 68%    
  Feb 02, 2025 227   @ Rider L 65-67 42%    
  Feb 06, 2025 320   Niagara W 70-61 79%    
  Feb 08, 2025 318   Canisius W 70-61 78%    
  Feb 14, 2025 334   @ Manhattan W 68-63 65%    
  Feb 16, 2025 226   Marist W 64-60 63%    
  Feb 21, 2025 335   Sacred Heart W 76-65 82%    
  Feb 23, 2025 221   @ Iona L 65-67 41%    
  Feb 28, 2025 227   Rider W 68-64 62%    
  Mar 02, 2025 247   Quinnipiac W 72-67 65%    
  Mar 06, 2025 226   @ Marist L 61-63 43%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.7 4.9 4.4 2.8 1.3 0.3 19.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.9 4.6 2.6 0.8 0.1 15.7 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.2 4.9 3.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 12.9 3rd
4th 0.2 1.8 4.7 3.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 4.1 3.3 0.7 0.1 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.1 3.3 0.8 0.1 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.5 1.1 0.1 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 1.1 0.1 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.9 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.3 3.5 5.0 6.5 8.7 10.4 11.4 11.9 11.1 9.7 7.7 5.2 2.9 1.3 0.3 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.3    1.2 0.0
18-2 95.5% 2.8    2.6 0.2 0.0
17-3 84.7% 4.4    3.5 0.9 0.0
16-4 63.8% 4.9    3.1 1.6 0.2 0.0
15-5 37.7% 3.7    1.4 1.5 0.6 0.1
14-6 12.6% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 19.0% 19.0 12.5 4.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 63.8% 63.8% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
19-1 1.3% 49.3% 49.3% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6
18-2 2.9% 41.4% 41.4% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.7
17-3 5.2% 34.5% 34.5% 14.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 3.4
16-4 7.7% 27.9% 27.9% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.2 5.5
15-5 9.7% 22.3% 22.3% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.4 7.5
14-6 11.1% 17.3% 17.3% 15.2 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.7 9.2
13-7 11.9% 13.1% 13.1% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 10.3
12-8 11.4% 9.5% 9.5% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.7 10.3
11-9 10.4% 6.3% 6.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 9.8
10-10 8.7% 3.2% 3.2% 15.9 0.0 0.3 8.5
9-11 6.5% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.2 6.4
8-12 5.0% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 4.9
7-13 3.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.5
6-14 2.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.3
5-15 1.1% 1.1
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.9% 13.9% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 3.2 4.8 4.0 86.1 0.0%