Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.2#206
Expected Predictive Rating-0.6#182
Pace64.0#301
Improvement+1.7#107

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#284
First Shot-0.9#203
After Offensive Rebound-3.2#336
Layup/Dunks-3.8#307
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#72
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#81
Freethrows-2.0#298
Improvement+1.5#85

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#119
First Shot+2.6#95
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#254
Layups/Dunks+0.0#166
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#140
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#67
Freethrows-0.8#250
Improvement+0.2#176
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.0% 22.6% 17.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.1 15.4
.500 or above 86.4% 94.0% 80.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.8% 98.8%
Conference Champion 34.3% 45.1% 25.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.7% 1.8% 3.4%
First Round18.9% 21.9% 16.4%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Peter's (Away) - 45.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 31 - 42 - 9
Quad 417 - 519 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 211   Vermont W 65-51 63%     1 - 0 +8.6 -0.6 +10.5
  Nov 13, 2024 49   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 42-63 8%     1 - 1 -7.5 -23.9 +16.7
  Nov 17, 2024 122   Princeton L 57-68 42%     1 - 2 -11.1 -6.6 -6.6
  Nov 20, 2024 66   @ Rutgers L 63-74 11%     1 - 3 +0.2 -2.4 +2.2
  Nov 22, 2024 84   @ Butler L 39-78 14%     1 - 4 -29.5 -24.6 -10.6
  Nov 25, 2024 188   @ Umass Lowell L 74-81 36%     1 - 5 -5.5 -3.3 -1.9
  Nov 27, 2024 229   Texas San Antonio L 74-76 57%     1 - 6 -5.9 -8.5 +2.8
  Nov 29, 2024 117   @ Troy W 72-68 23%     2 - 6 +9.5 +9.8 +0.1
  Dec 06, 2024 346   @ Canisius W 60-52 75%     3 - 6 1 - 0 -1.2 -16.5 +15.8
  Dec 08, 2024 310   @ Niagara W 80-62 64%     4 - 6 2 - 0 +12.2 +23.7 -7.0
  Dec 13, 2024 282   Boston University W 64-61 76%     5 - 6 -6.7 +2.2 -8.2
  Dec 17, 2024 87   @ Stanford L 68-74 14%     5 - 7 +3.2 +0.4 +2.6
  Dec 19, 2024 35   @ St. Mary's L 68-73 6%     5 - 8 +10.4 +13.9 -4.3
  Jan 03, 2025 318   Fairfield W 67-54 82%     6 - 8 3 - 0 +1.2 -3.4 +6.6
  Jan 10, 2025 295   @ Sacred Heart W 66-65 61%     7 - 8 4 - 0 -3.9 -8.8 +4.9
  Jan 12, 2025 297   Manhattan W 69-62 78%     8 - 8 5 - 0 -3.4 -6.5 +3.7
  Jan 16, 2025 184   @ Quinnipiac L 76-81 35%     8 - 9 5 - 1 -3.3 +4.5 -7.7
  Jan 18, 2025 270   Siena W 64-58 74%     9 - 9 6 - 1 -2.9 -4.3 +2.1
  Jan 23, 2025 232   @ St. Peter's L 58-59 46%    
  Jan 25, 2025 318   @ Fairfield W 69-65 64%    
  Jan 31, 2025 266   Mount St. Mary's W 69-62 74%    
  Feb 02, 2025 294   @ Rider W 66-63 59%    
  Feb 06, 2025 310   Niagara W 69-60 81%    
  Feb 08, 2025 346   Canisius W 74-61 88%    
  Feb 14, 2025 297   @ Manhattan W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 16, 2025 218   Marist W 63-59 64%    
  Feb 21, 2025 295   Sacred Heart W 74-66 79%    
  Feb 23, 2025 253   @ Iona W 66-65 50%    
  Feb 28, 2025 294   Rider W 69-61 78%    
  Mar 02, 2025 184   Quinnipiac W 69-67 57%    
  Mar 06, 2025 218   @ Marist L 60-62 43%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.4 2.5 7.5 11.1 8.1 3.9 0.8 34.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.7 9.2 10.4 5.5 0.8 0.0 30.3 2nd
3rd 0.6 4.1 8.9 6.6 2.4 0.3 0.0 22.8 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 3.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 7.6 4th
5th 0.5 1.5 0.7 0.1 2.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.2 6th
7th 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 4.8 8.9 14.6 18.5 20.3 16.9 8.9 3.9 0.8 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8
18-2 99.0% 3.9    3.6 0.3
17-3 91.0% 8.1    6.1 1.9 0.1
16-4 65.8% 11.1    6.5 4.1 0.5
15-5 37.0% 7.5    2.9 3.7 0.9 0.1
14-6 13.6% 2.5    0.5 1.2 0.7 0.2
13-7 2.7% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 34.3% 34.3 20.3 11.4 2.3 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.8% 34.6% 34.6% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5
18-2 3.9% 33.8% 33.8% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 2.6
17-3 8.9% 29.2% 29.2% 14.7 0.0 0.8 1.7 0.1 6.3
16-4 16.9% 24.2% 24.2% 15.1 0.0 0.5 2.8 0.8 12.8
15-5 20.3% 22.9% 22.9% 15.4 0.2 2.4 2.1 15.7
14-6 18.5% 18.6% 18.6% 15.6 0.1 1.2 2.2 15.1
13-7 14.6% 15.9% 15.9% 15.8 0.4 1.9 12.3
12-8 8.9% 9.7% 9.7% 15.8 0.2 0.7 8.0
11-9 4.8% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.3 4.5
10-10 1.6% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.1 1.5
9-11 0.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.6
8-12 0.2% 0.2
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.2 9.1 8.2 80.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 13.2 3.7 11.1 44.4 40.7