Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.8#55
Expected Predictive Rating+7.8#82
Pace66.3#255
Improvement-0.6#226

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#100
First Shot-1.8#226
After Offensive Rebound+4.7#9
Layup/Dunks-5.2#333
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#147
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#118
Freethrows+1.2#107
Improvement+1.1#93

Defense
Total Defense+6.9#21
First Shot+7.5#12
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#228
Layups/Dunks+3.5#69
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#311
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.7#4
Freethrows-2.0#306
Improvement-1.7#304
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.0% 1.8% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 2.8% 4.7% 1.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.4% 35.6% 24.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 9.0% 14.1% 4.9%
Average Seed 9.8 9.4 10.3
.500 or above 99.6% 99.9% 99.4%
.500 or above in Conference 95.4% 96.9% 94.2%
Conference Champion 27.2% 31.3% 23.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four2.6% 3.7% 1.8%
First Round28.1% 33.8% 23.3%
Second Round12.1% 15.8% 9.0%
Sweet Sixteen3.8% 5.2% 2.6%
Elite Eight1.3% 1.9% 0.8%
Final Four0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Away) - 46.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 2
Quad 24 - 36 - 6
Quad 39 - 214 - 8
Quad 49 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 333   Bellarmine W 84-65 97%     1 - 0 +5.6 +5.7 +0.8
  Nov 08, 2024 150   Boston College W 80-55 81%     2 - 0 +25.4 +5.5 +19.2
  Nov 13, 2024 217   Merrimack W 63-42 92%     3 - 0 +15.2 -10.6 +25.5
  Nov 16, 2024 319   Loyola Maryland W 83-57 97%     4 - 0 +14.2 +3.3 +10.3
  Nov 21, 2024 117   Seton Hall L 66-69 OT 74%     4 - 1 +0.0 -5.5 +5.7
  Nov 22, 2024 54   Nevada L 61-64 49%     4 - 2 +6.9 +2.0 +4.5
  Nov 24, 2024 91   Miami (FL) W 77-70 64%     5 - 2 +13.0 +10.2 +3.5
  Dec 04, 2024 235   Georgia Southern W 89-54 93%     6 - 2 +28.1 +16.4 +12.7
  Dec 09, 2024 284   Penn W 66-47 95%     7 - 2 +9.4 -6.8 +17.9
  Dec 14, 2024 108   Colorado St. W 76-68 71%     8 - 2 +12.1 +11.6 +1.0
  Dec 18, 2024 71   @ New Mexico L 75-76 46%    
  Dec 22, 2024 225   William & Mary W 84-68 94%    
  Dec 31, 2024 89   @ St. Bonaventure W 66-65 53%    
  Jan 04, 2025 104   @ Loyola Chicago W 69-67 57%    
  Jan 08, 2025 172   Fordham W 77-63 90%    
  Jan 14, 2025 135   Saint Louis W 79-68 85%    
  Jan 17, 2025 103   @ Saint Joseph's W 70-68 57%    
  Jan 21, 2025 98   @ Rhode Island W 73-72 55%    
  Jan 24, 2025 89   St. Bonaventure W 69-62 73%    
  Jan 28, 2025 135   @ Saint Louis W 76-71 69%    
  Feb 01, 2025 205   Richmond W 74-59 91%    
  Feb 04, 2025 155   La Salle W 78-65 87%    
  Feb 07, 2025 38   @ Dayton L 66-71 33%    
  Feb 12, 2025 144   @ George Washington W 74-68 71%    
  Feb 19, 2025 200   Massachusetts W 79-64 91%    
  Feb 22, 2025 83   George Mason W 68-62 71%    
  Feb 25, 2025 205   @ Richmond W 71-62 79%    
  Feb 28, 2025 124   Davidson W 75-65 82%    
  Mar 04, 2025 198   @ Duquesne W 69-61 77%    
  Mar 07, 2025 38   Dayton W 69-68 54%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.7 8.6 7.1 3.2 0.8 27.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.0 6.8 8.0 3.7 0.5 0.0 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 5.5 6.2 2.1 0.2 15.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.8 5.1 1.8 0.1 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 4.2 1.7 0.2 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 2.9 1.8 0.2 5.8 6th
7th 0.2 1.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 3.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 2.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.6 4.9 7.8 11.5 14.6 16.6 15.9 12.5 7.6 3.2 0.8 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
17-1 99.9% 3.2    3.1 0.1
16-2 93.7% 7.1    5.7 1.3 0.1
15-3 69.0% 8.6    5.1 3.0 0.5 0.0
14-4 35.5% 5.7    1.9 2.5 1.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 9.4% 1.6    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.2% 27.2 16.9 7.6 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 96.5% 49.6% 46.8% 4.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.0%
17-1 3.2% 86.2% 46.1% 40.1% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 74.4%
16-2 7.6% 66.8% 40.0% 26.8% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.0 2.5 44.6%
15-3 12.5% 48.6% 34.1% 14.5% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.3 0.2 6.4 22.0%
14-4 15.9% 33.9% 27.8% 6.1% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.3 0.4 10.5 8.5%
13-5 16.6% 24.8% 22.9% 2.0% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.9 0.7 12.5 2.5%
12-6 14.6% 18.3% 17.5% 0.7% 11.3 0.0 0.1 1.7 0.8 0.0 12.0 0.9%
11-7 11.5% 11.9% 11.7% 0.2% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.6 0.0 10.1 0.3%
10-8 7.8% 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 11.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 7.1 0.0%
9-9 4.9% 6.0% 6.0% 11.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.6
8-10 2.6% 3.4% 3.3% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.6 0.1%
7-11 1.2% 2.7% 2.7% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
6-12 0.5% 1.5% 1.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
5-13 0.2% 4.0% 4.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 29.4% 22.4% 7.0% 9.8 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.9 2.9 5.0 12.1 3.4 0.1 0.0 70.6 9.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.7 13.0 34.1 29.3 17.9 5.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 97.8% 4.7 2.2 2.2 8.9 33.3 20.0 24.4 4.4 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 94.9% 5.1 2.6 5.1 20.5 28.2 30.8 5.1 2.6