Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.6#34
Expected Predictive Rating+10.3#55
Pace65.8#239
Improvement+2.6#83

Offense
Total Offense+6.8#41
First Shot+0.4#158
After Offensive Rebound+6.4#3
Layup/Dunks-1.5#234
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#182
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#114
Freethrows+0.2#161
Improvement+4.5#19

Defense
Total Defense+6.7#32
First Shot+7.3#17
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#229
Layups/Dunks+3.2#67
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#321
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#4
Freethrows-0.8#246
Improvement-1.8#276
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 68.6% 74.8% 25.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 29.8% 31.7% 25.0%
Average Seed 10.5 10.5 10.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four9.8% 8.6% 18.6%
First Round64.5% 71.0% 18.3%
Second Round27.5% 30.5% 6.4%
Sweet Sixteen8.5% 9.5% 1.7%
Elite Eight2.7% 3.0% 0.6%
Final Four0.7% 0.8% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.1%

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b2 - 12 - 1
Quad 25 - 47 - 5
Quad 37 - 014 - 6
Quad 412 - 126 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 340   Bellarmine W 84-65 99%     1 - 0 +4.2 +4.3 +0.9
  Nov 08, 2024 169   Boston College W 80-55 90%     2 - 0 +24.5 +5.4 +18.5
  Nov 13, 2024 192   Merrimack W 63-42 94%     3 - 0 +16.6 -9.5 +25.7
  Nov 16, 2024 309   Loyola Maryland W 83-57 98%     4 - 0 +14.3 +2.6 +11.1
  Nov 21, 2024 166   Seton Hall L 66-69 OT 90%     4 - 1 -3.4 -8.0 +4.8
  Nov 22, 2024 83   Nevada L 61-64 75%     4 - 2 +3.7 +0.9 +2.3
  Nov 24, 2024 174   Miami (FL) W 77-70 90%     5 - 2 +6.3 +7.0 +0.0
  Dec 04, 2024 250   Georgia Southern W 89-54 96%     6 - 2 +27.4 +14.8 +13.6
  Dec 09, 2024 280   Penn W 66-47 97%     7 - 2 +9.5 -7.9 +19.2
  Dec 14, 2024 53   Colorado St. W 76-68 61%     8 - 2 +18.7 +12.1 +7.1
  Dec 18, 2024 41   @ New Mexico L 71-78 43%     8 - 3 +8.3 +4.5 +4.1
  Dec 22, 2024 231   William & Mary W 90-70 96%     9 - 3 +13.3 +8.0 +4.4
  Dec 31, 2024 109   @ St. Bonaventure L 75-77 75%     9 - 4 0 - 1 +4.4 +16.8 -12.7
  Jan 04, 2025 108   @ Loyola Chicago W 84-65 75%     10 - 4 1 - 1 +25.5 +21.6 +5.3
  Jan 08, 2025 237   Fordham W 73-61 96%     11 - 4 2 - 1 +5.1 +0.7 +5.1
  Jan 14, 2025 100   Saint Louis W 78-62 87%     12 - 4 3 - 1 +17.6 +13.4 +5.7
  Jan 17, 2025 77   @ Saint Joseph's W 78-69 63%     13 - 4 4 - 1 +19.2 +9.2 +9.8
  Jan 21, 2025 139   @ Rhode Island W 81-57 81%     14 - 4 5 - 1 +28.1 +1.8 +24.0
  Jan 24, 2025 109   St. Bonaventure W 75-61 88%     15 - 4 6 - 1 +14.9 +8.4 +7.3
  Jan 28, 2025 100   @ Saint Louis L 69-78 73%     15 - 5 6 - 2 -1.9 -3.6 +2.1
  Feb 01, 2025 227   Richmond W 90-49 96%     16 - 5 7 - 2 +34.8 +30.9 +11.4
  Feb 04, 2025 226   La Salle W 96-66 96%     17 - 5 8 - 2 +23.8 +28.1 -2.1
  Feb 07, 2025 75   @ Dayton W 73-68 63%     18 - 5 9 - 2 +15.2 +3.7 +11.6
  Feb 12, 2025 114   @ George Washington W 80-72 76%     19 - 5 10 - 2 +14.1 +19.8 -4.9
  Feb 19, 2025 190   Massachusetts W 80-51 94%     20 - 5 11 - 2 +24.7 +16.2 +11.9
  Feb 22, 2025 90   George Mason W 70-54 84%     21 - 5 12 - 2 +19.0 +9.9 +10.7
  Feb 25, 2025 227   @ Richmond W 78-60 90%     22 - 5 13 - 2 +17.3 +17.9 +2.4
  Feb 28, 2025 140   Davidson W 80-56 91%     23 - 5 14 - 2 +22.4 +15.0 +10.3
  Mar 04, 2025 122   @ Duquesne W 71-62 79%     24 - 5 15 - 2 +14.1 +7.0 +7.7
  Mar 07, 2025 75   Dayton L 76-79 80%     24 - 6 15 - 3 +1.7 +10.3 -8.8
Projected Record 24 - 6 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 100.0    100.0
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 68.6% 55.3% 13.3% 10.5 0.0 0.1 1.1 5.8 21.8 37.9 2.0 31.4 29.8%
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 68.6% 55.3% 13.3% 10.5 0.0 0.1 1.1 5.8 21.8 37.9 2.0 31.4 29.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 55.3% 100.0% 10.4 0.0 0.2 1.9 9.8 34.2 51.4 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 17.7% 34.9% 10.7 0.1 1.4 8.3 23.7 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 14.7% 27.8% 10.8 0.8 5.0 21.1 0.9
Lose Out 12.4% 25.0% 10.8 0.1 0.2 5.5 17.9 1.4