Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.7#49
Expected Predictive Rating+8.5#67
Pace65.7#248
Improvement+1.2#131

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#65
First Shot-1.2#210
After Offensive Rebound+5.7#3
Layup/Dunks-2.0#257
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#192
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#132
Freethrows-0.1#182
Improvement+3.9#19

Defense
Total Defense+6.2#39
First Shot+6.8#20
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#241
Layups/Dunks+3.1#70
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#322
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#4
Freethrows-0.9#256
Improvement-2.7#317
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.8% 1.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.0% 3.0% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.3% 43.4% 34.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.7% 9.9% 3.9%
Average Seed 10.3 10.1 11.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 99.9% 99.4%
Conference Champion 64.8% 72.4% 50.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.8% 3.3% 1.9%
First Round38.9% 41.8% 33.1%
Second Round15.2% 17.4% 10.8%
Sweet Sixteen4.5% 5.3% 2.8%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.4% 0.5%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rhode Island (Away) - 66.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 2
Quad 25 - 46 - 6
Quad 38 - 214 - 8
Quad 410 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 353   Bellarmine W 84-65 99%     1 - 0 +2.8 +4.1 -0.3
  Nov 08, 2024 195   Boston College W 80-55 87%     2 - 0 +23.4 +3.8 +19.0
  Nov 13, 2024 206   Merrimack W 63-42 92%     3 - 0 +16.1 -10.3 +26.0
  Nov 16, 2024 315   Loyola Maryland W 83-57 97%     4 - 0 +14.5 +2.2 +11.7
  Nov 21, 2024 132   Seton Hall L 66-69 OT 80%     4 - 1 -1.2 -9.3 +8.4
  Nov 22, 2024 68   Nevada L 61-64 60%     4 - 2 +5.1 +1.6 +3.1
  Nov 24, 2024 155   Miami (FL) W 77-70 83%     5 - 2 +7.6 +7.0 +1.3
  Dec 04, 2024 272   Georgia Southern W 89-54 96%     6 - 2 +26.0 +14.5 +12.5
  Dec 09, 2024 287   Penn W 66-47 96%     7 - 2 +9.1 -6.8 +17.6
  Dec 14, 2024 76   Colorado St. W 76-68 63%     8 - 2 +15.3 +12.6 +3.2
  Dec 18, 2024 53   @ New Mexico L 71-78 40%     8 - 3 +6.2 +3.0 +3.5
  Dec 22, 2024 189   William & Mary W 90-70 91%     9 - 3 +16.0 +7.7 +7.4
  Dec 31, 2024 96   @ St. Bonaventure L 75-77 60%     9 - 4 0 - 1 +6.2 +15.9 -10.0
  Jan 04, 2025 136   @ Loyola Chicago W 84-65 73%     10 - 4 1 - 1 +23.4 +19.7 +5.1
  Jan 08, 2025 221   Fordham W 73-61 93%     11 - 4 2 - 1 +5.9 +2.5 +4.1
  Jan 14, 2025 102   Saint Louis W 78-62 81%     12 - 4 3 - 1 +17.3 +11.7 +7.1
  Jan 17, 2025 90   @ Saint Joseph's W 78-69 57%     13 - 4 4 - 1 +18.0 +9.3 +8.5
  Jan 21, 2025 109   @ Rhode Island W 75-70 66%    
  Jan 24, 2025 96   St. Bonaventure W 70-62 78%    
  Jan 28, 2025 102   @ Saint Louis W 74-70 64%    
  Feb 01, 2025 209   Richmond W 74-58 93%    
  Feb 04, 2025 191   La Salle W 80-65 92%    
  Feb 07, 2025 78   @ Dayton W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 12, 2025 119   @ George Washington W 74-69 68%    
  Feb 19, 2025 171   Massachusetts W 80-66 91%    
  Feb 22, 2025 86   George Mason W 67-60 74%    
  Feb 25, 2025 209   @ Richmond W 71-61 82%    
  Feb 28, 2025 121   Davidson W 76-65 85%    
  Mar 04, 2025 116   @ Duquesne W 68-63 67%    
  Mar 07, 2025 78   Dayton W 72-66 72%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.2 8.6 17.7 20.1 13.1 4.2 64.8 1st
2nd 0.5 4.7 8.2 4.2 0.8 0.0 18.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 4.1 1.7 0.1 7.5 3rd
4th 0.3 2.5 1.2 0.0 4.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 2.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 0.2 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.6 6.3 11.4 18.5 22.0 20.9 13.2 4.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 4.2    4.2
16-2 99.8% 13.1    12.8 0.4
15-3 96.2% 20.1    17.3 2.7 0.1
14-4 80.3% 17.7    10.6 6.2 0.9 0.0
13-5 46.6% 8.6    2.3 4.1 1.8 0.4 0.1
12-6 10.2% 1.2    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 64.8% 64.8 47.2 13.6 3.1 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 4.2% 75.2% 53.5% 21.7% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 1.0 46.6%
16-2 13.2% 60.4% 44.6% 15.8% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.9 2.2 2.0 0.0 5.2 28.5%
15-3 20.9% 47.8% 40.9% 6.9% 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.7 5.6 0.6 10.9 11.7%
14-4 22.0% 39.2% 37.2% 2.0% 11.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 6.1 1.5 13.4 3.2%
13-5 18.5% 31.3% 30.6% 0.7% 11.3 0.2 3.8 1.8 12.7 1.0%
12-6 11.4% 27.2% 27.0% 0.2% 11.5 0.0 1.5 1.5 0.0 8.3 0.2%
11-7 6.3% 19.1% 19.1% 11.7 0.4 0.8 0.0 5.1
10-8 2.6% 16.0% 16.0% 11.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 2.2
9-9 0.8% 9.3% 9.3% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
8-10 0.2% 4.8% 4.8% 12.0 0.0 0.2
7-11 0.1% 0.0 0.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 40.3% 35.3% 5.0% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.6 3.1 6.4 19.4 6.7 0.1 59.7 7.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.2% 100.0% 5.1 0.9 1.8 10.8 22.1 28.8 19.4 11.3 2.7 1.4 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 60.0% 8.8 14.0 8.0 18.0 16.0 4.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 52.9% 9.2 11.8 20.6 19.1 1.5