Fordham
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.8#172
Expected Predictive Rating+0.2#166
Pace73.8#67
Improvement+1.7#71

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#212
First Shot-1.8#225
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#159
Layup/Dunks-2.9#280
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#225
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#104
Freethrows-0.6#216
Improvement+1.4#74

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#145
First Shot-1.6#224
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#34
Layups/Dunks-3.0#287
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#262
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#62
Freethrows-1.0#251
Improvement+0.3#166
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.3 12.3 12.3
.500 or above 27.4% 32.3% 12.7%
.500 or above in Conference 23.0% 25.2% 16.4%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 15.9% 14.5% 20.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Albany (Home) - 75.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 22 - 62 - 10
Quad 35 - 57 - 15
Quad 47 - 314 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 15   @ St. John's L 60-92 5%     0 - 1 -13.7 -7.6 -4.3
  Nov 09, 2024 117   @ Seton Hall W 57-56 26%     1 - 1 +7.0 -3.7 +10.8
  Nov 12, 2024 310   Binghamton W 78-63 84%     2 - 1 +3.8 -1.6 +5.2
  Nov 15, 2024 316   @ Manhattan L 76-78 69%     2 - 2 -7.8 -6.4 -1.2
  Nov 22, 2024 153   Drexel L 71-73 57%     2 - 3 -4.7 +3.0 -7.9
  Nov 25, 2024 31   Penn St. L 66-85 11%     2 - 4 -6.3 -2.0 -4.0
  Nov 26, 2024 56   San Francisco L 64-85 17%     2 - 5 -11.5 +3.7 -17.2
  Dec 01, 2024 354   New Hampshire W 83-61 91%     3 - 5 +6.1 +0.9 +3.9
  Dec 04, 2024 339   Fairleigh Dickinson W 84-75 89%     4 - 5 -5.2 -7.0 +0.9
  Dec 08, 2024 213   Maine W 87-72 68%     5 - 5 +9.5 +5.4 +2.6
  Dec 14, 2024 176   Bryant W 86-84 50%     6 - 5 +1.2 +0.9 +0.0
  Dec 21, 2024 248   Albany W 82-75 75%    
  Dec 31, 2024 135   Saint Louis W 80-79 53%    
  Jan 04, 2025 89   St. Bonaventure L 68-72 36%    
  Jan 08, 2025 55   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 63-77 10%    
  Jan 11, 2025 124   @ Davidson L 72-78 29%    
  Jan 15, 2025 200   Massachusetts W 78-74 65%    
  Jan 22, 2025 104   @ Loyola Chicago L 68-77 22%    
  Jan 26, 2025 198   Duquesne W 71-67 64%    
  Jan 29, 2025 155   @ La Salle L 75-79 36%    
  Feb 01, 2025 89   @ St. Bonaventure L 65-75 19%    
  Feb 05, 2025 98   Rhode Island L 76-79 39%    
  Feb 12, 2025 38   Dayton L 68-78 19%    
  Feb 15, 2025 205   @ Richmond L 70-72 45%    
  Feb 19, 2025 198   @ Duquesne L 68-70 42%    
  Feb 22, 2025 124   Davidson L 74-75 50%    
  Feb 26, 2025 83   @ George Mason L 64-74 18%    
  Mar 01, 2025 103   Saint Joseph's L 72-75 41%    
  Mar 05, 2025 144   George Washington W 77-75 56%    
  Mar 08, 2025 98   @ Rhode Island L 73-82 21%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.5 4th
5th 0.3 1.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 3.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.4 2.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 4.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 3.6 1.6 0.1 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.7 3.1 0.4 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.8 4.7 1.1 0.0 8.9 9th
10th 0.1 1.9 5.5 2.5 0.1 10.2 10th
11th 0.0 1.2 5.3 4.3 0.5 0.0 11.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 4.2 5.5 1.3 0.0 11.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 3.1 5.3 2.2 0.1 11.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.6 2.6 4.4 2.6 0.3 10.5 14th
15th 0.2 1.0 2.4 3.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 8.9 15th
Total 0.2 1.1 3.0 6.2 10.1 13.6 15.5 14.7 12.5 9.6 6.4 3.8 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 65.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0
14-4 37.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 8.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 4.7% 4.7% 11.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.3% 7.6% 7.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 0.9% 6.5% 6.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.8
12-6 2.0% 3.9% 3.9% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.9
11-7 3.8% 2.8% 2.8% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.7
10-8 6.4% 1.0% 1.0% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.3
9-9 9.6% 0.6% 0.6% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.5
8-10 12.5% 0.4% 0.4% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.5
7-11 14.7% 0.2% 0.2% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.7
6-12 15.5% 0.1% 0.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.5
5-13 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.6
4-14 10.1% 10.1
3-15 6.2% 6.2
2-16 3.0% 3.0
1-17 1.1% 1.1
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 12.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%