Louisiana Tech
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.0#101
Expected Predictive Rating+8.1#80
Pace64.2#303
Improvement+0.0#188

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#113
First Shot+3.9#76
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#269
Layup/Dunks+4.6#45
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#272
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#123
Freethrows-0.9#239
Improvement-1.0#265

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#109
First Shot+4.1#67
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#295
Layups/Dunks-0.6#188
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#138
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#93
Freethrows+1.8#64
Improvement+0.9#115
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.6% 21.5% 15.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.1 11.9 12.3
.500 or above 97.3% 99.1% 95.4%
.500 or above in Conference 84.9% 92.3% 76.9%
Conference Champion 24.5% 33.3% 15.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.5% 2.5%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round18.5% 21.4% 15.3%
Second Round3.7% 4.6% 2.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.1% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UTEP (Away) - 51.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 4
Quad 310 - 412 - 8
Quad 48 - 220 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 162   @ Texas Arlington W 92-77 59%     1 - 0 +17.8 +22.7 -4.1
  Nov 13, 2024 200   Massachusetts W 76-66 74%     2 - 0 +8.2 +1.9 +6.3
  Nov 25, 2024 169   Southern Illinois W 85-79 OT 70%     3 - 0 +5.4 -0.8 +5.2
  Nov 26, 2024 205   Richmond W 65-62 75%     4 - 0 +0.8 -0.9 +2.0
  Nov 27, 2024 218   Eastern Kentucky W 78-69 77%     5 - 0 +6.2 +9.8 -2.7
  Nov 30, 2024 223   Southern L 70-73 85%     5 - 1 -9.2 -3.6 -5.6
  Dec 04, 2024 34   @ Memphis L 71-81 17%     5 - 2 +5.3 +5.2 -0.1
  Dec 08, 2024 304   @ Louisiana W 69-58 82%     6 - 2 +6.2 -1.9 +8.9
  Dec 13, 2024 235   Georgia Southern W 77-63 86%     7 - 2 +7.1 +8.1 +0.2
  Dec 16, 2024 102   Grand Canyon W 74-66 62%     8 - 2 +9.9 +5.5 +4.8
  Jan 02, 2025 132   @ UTEP W 70-69 52%    
  Jan 04, 2025 199   @ New Mexico St. W 70-66 64%    
  Jan 09, 2025 242   Florida International W 76-64 88%    
  Jan 11, 2025 77   Liberty W 66-65 53%    
  Jan 16, 2025 173   @ Jacksonville St. W 70-67 60%    
  Jan 18, 2025 154   @ Kennesaw St. W 76-74 56%    
  Jan 23, 2025 106   Western Kentucky W 75-71 63%    
  Jan 25, 2025 130   Middle Tennessee W 73-67 71%    
  Feb 01, 2025 128   Sam Houston St. W 75-69 71%    
  Feb 06, 2025 77   @ Liberty L 63-68 33%    
  Feb 08, 2025 242   @ Florida International W 73-67 72%    
  Feb 13, 2025 154   Kennesaw St. W 79-71 75%    
  Feb 15, 2025 173   Jacksonville St. W 73-64 79%    
  Feb 20, 2025 130   @ Middle Tennessee W 70-69 50%    
  Feb 22, 2025 106   @ Western Kentucky L 72-74 42%    
  Mar 01, 2025 128   @ Sam Houston St. L 72-73 50%    
  Mar 06, 2025 199   New Mexico St. W 73-63 81%    
  Mar 08, 2025 132   UTEP W 72-66 72%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.2 6.8 5.9 3.1 1.2 0.2 24.5 1st
2nd 0.4 3.1 7.3 6.9 3.2 0.6 0.1 21.4 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.0 7.0 4.9 1.3 0.1 0.0 16.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.9 3.5 0.6 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 4.2 2.7 0.4 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.0 2.3 0.3 0.0 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 4.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.2 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.3 4.3 6.8 9.3 12.3 14.2 14.6 13.4 10.1 6.5 3.2 1.2 0.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
16-2 98.2% 3.1    3.0 0.2
15-3 90.4% 5.9    4.8 1.0 0.0
14-4 67.4% 6.8    4.3 2.2 0.3 0.0
13-5 38.5% 5.2    2.0 2.3 0.8 0.1
12-6 13.1% 1.9    0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
11-7 1.8% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.5% 24.5 15.8 6.5 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 70.6% 53.2% 17.4% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 37.3%
17-1 1.2% 53.8% 48.5% 5.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 10.3%
16-2 3.2% 41.3% 39.4% 1.9% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.0 1.9 3.1%
15-3 6.5% 35.0% 34.6% 0.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.4 0.1 4.2 0.5%
14-4 10.1% 29.4% 29.3% 0.0% 11.9 0.0 0.5 2.3 0.2 0.0 7.1 0.1%
13-5 13.4% 24.4% 24.4% 0.0% 12.1 0.3 2.5 0.5 0.0 10.1 0.0%
12-6 14.6% 18.8% 18.8% 12.3 0.1 1.9 0.7 0.0 11.8
11-7 14.2% 15.3% 15.3% 12.4 0.0 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 12.0
10-8 12.3% 12.2% 12.2% 12.6 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 10.8
9-9 9.3% 9.6% 9.6% 12.8 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 8.4
8-10 6.8% 6.3% 6.3% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.3
7-11 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.1
6-12 2.3% 2.0% 2.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
5-13 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 1.0
4-14 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 18.6% 18.4% 0.2% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.6 11.1 3.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 81.4 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 6.8 13.8 17.2 19.0 15.5 12.1 12.1 5.2 5.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 50.0% 10.6 5.0 10.0 35.0