Louisiana Tech
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.7#92
Expected Predictive Rating+16.5#15
Pace64.6#315
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#83
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#107
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.8% 1.3% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 1.9% 3.0% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.7% 31.9% 20.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.0% 6.1% 1.7%
Average Seed 11.1 10.7 11.8
.500 or above 87.2% 93.4% 79.7%
.500 or above in Conference 86.2% 90.3% 81.1%
Conference Champion 33.0% 38.9% 25.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.9% 2.1%
First Four1.7% 2.3% 1.0%
First Round25.9% 30.7% 20.0%
Second Round8.2% 10.7% 5.1%
Sweet Sixteen2.5% 3.4% 1.4%
Elite Eight0.7% 1.0% 0.4%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Massachusetts (Neutral) - 55.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 32 - 4
Quad 39 - 411 - 8
Quad 49 - 120 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 160   @ Texas Arlington W 92-77 58%     1 - 0 +18.5 +22.4 -3.1
  Nov 13, 2024 109   Massachusetts W 72-71 55%    
  Nov 25, 2024 161   Southern Illinois W 69-64 69%    
  Nov 26, 2024 184   Richmond W 71-64 74%    
  Nov 27, 2024 225   Eastern Kentucky W 78-69 79%    
  Nov 30, 2024 273   Southern W 77-62 91%    
  Dec 04, 2024 34   @ Memphis L 70-79 22%    
  Dec 07, 2024 188   @ Louisiana W 72-68 65%    
  Dec 13, 2024 197   Georgia Southern W 80-69 83%    
  Dec 16, 2024 85   Grand Canyon W 72-70 57%    
  Jan 02, 2025 194   @ UTEP W 72-67 65%    
  Jan 04, 2025 147   @ New Mexico St. W 69-67 56%    
  Jan 09, 2025 267   Florida International W 81-67 89%    
  Jan 11, 2025 104   Liberty W 69-65 63%    
  Jan 16, 2025 210   @ Jacksonville St. W 70-65 68%    
  Jan 18, 2025 176   @ Kennesaw St. W 80-77 62%    
  Jan 23, 2025 118   Western Kentucky W 80-74 69%    
  Jan 25, 2025 129   Middle Tennessee W 71-64 71%    
  Feb 01, 2025 123   Sam Houston St. W 76-70 69%    
  Feb 06, 2025 104   @ Liberty L 66-68 43%    
  Feb 08, 2025 267   @ Florida International W 78-70 75%    
  Feb 13, 2025 176   Kennesaw St. W 83-74 79%    
  Feb 15, 2025 210   Jacksonville St. W 73-62 83%    
  Feb 20, 2025 129   @ Middle Tennessee W 68-67 52%    
  Feb 22, 2025 118   @ Western Kentucky L 76-77 49%    
  Mar 01, 2025 123   @ Sam Houston St. L 73-74 50%    
  Mar 06, 2025 147   New Mexico St. W 72-64 74%    
  Mar 08, 2025 194   UTEP W 75-64 81%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.0 7.3 8.7 6.8 3.7 1.3 33.0 1st
2nd 0.2 1.7 5.3 6.8 4.2 1.5 0.2 19.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 5.1 4.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 14.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 4.1 3.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.3 2.7 0.6 0.0 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.6 2.1 0.4 0.0 5.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.3 3.6 5.6 7.3 9.2 11.0 12.1 12.7 11.8 10.2 6.9 3.7 1.3 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
17-1 100.0% 3.7    3.6 0.0
16-2 97.8% 6.8    6.2 0.6
15-3 85.3% 8.7    6.7 1.9 0.1
14-4 61.9% 7.3    4.3 2.6 0.4 0.0
13-5 31.5% 4.0    1.5 1.8 0.6 0.1
12-6 9.6% 1.2    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 33.0% 33.0 23.8 7.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.3% 87.7% 61.4% 26.3% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 68.2%
17-1 3.7% 78.3% 56.4% 21.9% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.8 50.2%
16-2 6.9% 61.9% 48.5% 13.3% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.6 0.9 0.1 2.6 25.9%
15-3 10.2% 46.7% 40.6% 6.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 5.4 10.3%
14-4 11.8% 34.9% 32.6% 2.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.3 0.5 0.0 7.7 3.3%
13-5 12.7% 26.8% 26.2% 0.6% 12.2 0.0 0.5 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.3 0.8%
12-6 12.1% 20.5% 20.3% 0.2% 12.4 0.2 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 9.6 0.3%
11-7 11.0% 14.4% 14.4% 12.7 0.0 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 9.4
10-8 9.2% 10.6% 10.6% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.2
9-9 7.3% 8.5% 8.5% 13.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.7
8-10 5.6% 5.8% 5.8% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.2
7-11 3.6% 3.7% 3.7% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5
6-12 2.3% 1.6% 1.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 2.3
5-13 1.4% 2.0% 2.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.3
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 26.7% 23.7% 3.1% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.6 6.0 9.7 3.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 73.3 4.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 3.0 10.0 28.0 32.0 16.0 12.0 2.0