Eastern Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.1#322
Expected Predictive Rating-10.3#324
Pace67.4#223
Improvement-0.8#247

Offense
Total Offense-6.9#348
First Shot-6.5#342
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#208
Layup/Dunks-8.0#359
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#7
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#269
Freethrows-2.2#301
Improvement-1.5#295

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#246
First Shot-4.5#316
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#37
Layups/Dunks+1.6#111
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#17
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.8#349
Freethrows-2.9#337
Improvement+0.7#136
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.2% 8.0% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 13.4% 23.1% 8.8%
.500 or above in Conference 46.9% 64.4% 38.7%
Conference Champion 5.7% 10.6% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 12.4% 5.2% 15.8%
First Four4.2% 6.2% 3.2%
First Round3.0% 4.7% 2.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southeast Missouri St. (Away) - 32.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 30 - 8
Quad 411 - 1011 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 16   @ Illinois L 67-112 1%     0 - 1 -26.9 -7.8 -11.9
  Nov 10, 2024 46   @ Indiana L 55-90 3%     0 - 2 -21.2 -13.4 -6.8
  Nov 15, 2024 59   @ Northwestern L 58-67 OT 3%     0 - 3 +3.2 -2.0 +4.5
  Nov 19, 2024 88   @ DePaul L 69-78 5%     0 - 4 +0.1 +1.3 -1.3
  Nov 24, 2024 227   @ Valparaiso L 53-81 21%     0 - 5 -28.5 -14.5 -17.8
  Nov 29, 2024 344   Northern Illinois W 72-59 69%     1 - 5 -1.4 -7.1 +5.6
  Dec 03, 2024 74   @ Butler L 58-73 5%     1 - 6 -4.6 -8.4 +3.2
  Dec 14, 2024 218   @ Eastern Kentucky L 66-81 19%     1 - 7 -14.8 -11.2 -3.0
  Dec 19, 2024 297   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 66-71 32%    
  Dec 21, 2024 244   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 63-70 24%    
  Jan 02, 2025 347   Lindenwood W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 04, 2025 328   Western Illinois W 68-64 64%    
  Jan 07, 2025 263   SIU Edwardsville L 66-67 48%    
  Jan 09, 2025 332   Tennessee Tech W 71-67 64%    
  Jan 16, 2025 327   @ Tennessee Martin L 69-71 42%    
  Jan 18, 2025 321   @ Tennessee St. L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 23, 2025 279   Morehead St. W 68-67 50%    
  Jan 25, 2025 281   Southern Indiana W 70-69 50%    
  Jan 30, 2025 328   @ Western Illinois L 65-67 42%    
  Feb 01, 2025 347   @ Lindenwood L 68-69 49%    
  Feb 04, 2025 263   @ SIU Edwardsville L 63-70 28%    
  Feb 08, 2025 332   @ Tennessee Tech L 68-70 43%    
  Feb 13, 2025 321   Tennessee St. W 73-70 61%    
  Feb 15, 2025 327   Tennessee Martin W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 20, 2025 281   @ Southern Indiana L 66-72 30%    
  Feb 22, 2025 279   @ Morehead St. L 65-71 30%    
  Feb 27, 2025 244   Arkansas Little Rock L 66-67 45%    
  Mar 01, 2025 297   Southeast Missouri St. W 69-68 53%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.7 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 2.5 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 7.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 3.8 2.5 0.7 0.1 8.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.5 2.8 0.6 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 4.6 3.7 0.7 0.0 10.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.3 4.5 0.9 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.7 5.0 1.3 0.0 10.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.1 4.9 1.7 0.1 10.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.8 4.3 2.1 0.2 10.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.6 3.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 9.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.2 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 7.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.3 5.3 7.8 9.9 11.9 12.3 12.1 10.8 8.9 6.3 4.2 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 97.4% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-4 83.7% 1.1    0.8 0.2 0.0
15-5 66.6% 1.6    0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 34.3% 1.5    0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-7 10.1% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.7% 5.7 3.2 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 22.6% 22.6% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 41.9% 41.9% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.5% 38.1% 38.1% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3
16-4 1.3% 33.1% 33.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8
15-5 2.5% 29.2% 29.2% 16.0 0.0 0.7 1.7
14-6 4.2% 21.4% 21.4% 16.0 0.0 0.9 3.3
13-7 6.3% 14.6% 14.6% 16.0 0.9 5.4
12-8 8.9% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 0.7 8.1
11-9 10.8% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.5 10.3
10-10 12.1% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.3 11.8
9-11 12.3% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 12.1
8-12 11.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.8
7-13 9.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.9
6-14 7.8% 7.8
5-15 5.3% 5.3
4-16 3.3% 3.3
3-17 1.7% 1.7
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.0 94.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%