Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.7#269
Expected Predictive Rating-7.7#294
Pace75.9#24
Improvement+6.2#9

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#261
First Shot-3.9#291
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#136
Layup/Dunks+2.9#81
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#76
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#345
Freethrows-2.4#317
Improvement+4.2#23

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#242
First Shot-1.7#229
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#259
Layups/Dunks-1.4#232
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#110
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#164
Freethrows-1.8#302
Improvement+2.1#77
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.7% 13.9% 7.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 26.9% 45.1% 9.4%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.0% 7.8% 6.2%
First Round7.1% 9.9% 4.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Tech (Away) - 49.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 51 - 7
Quad 413 - 914 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 67   @ Colorado St. L 79-87 OT 7%     0 - 1 +2.9 -0.9 +5.0
  Nov 10, 2024 166   @ Wyoming L 66-81 22%     0 - 2 -12.7 -4.6 -8.0
  Nov 13, 2024 305   Howard L 84-88 OT 60%     0 - 3 -12.4 -0.5 -11.7
  Nov 16, 2024 359   Alabama A&M W 81-71 86%     1 - 3 -7.2 -9.8 +1.3
  Nov 25, 2024 119   @ Chattanooga L 78-85 15%     1 - 4 -1.7 -2.6 +1.4
  Nov 26, 2024 161   Bryant L 85-97 29%     1 - 5 -11.9 -0.1 -10.1
  Dec 01, 2024 184   UNC Asheville L 74-92 43%     1 - 6 -21.8 -5.8 -15.4
  Dec 10, 2024 135   @ Western Kentucky L 60-84 18%     1 - 7 -20.1 -13.4 -4.9
  Dec 19, 2024 343   @ Southern Indiana L 75-77 65%     1 - 8 0 - 1 -11.7 -7.8 -3.8
  Dec 21, 2024 329   @ Morehead St. L 68-74 58%     1 - 9 0 - 2 -13.8 -3.5 -10.7
  Jan 02, 2025 217   Southeast Missouri St. L 65-67 50%     1 - 10 0 - 3 -7.7 -12.1 +4.4
  Jan 04, 2025 233   Arkansas Little Rock W 95-86 53%     2 - 10 1 - 3 +2.5 +8.4 -7.2
  Jan 09, 2025 335   @ Lindenwood L 62-72 61%     2 - 11 1 - 4 -18.4 -15.5 -2.4
  Jan 11, 2025 351   @ Western Illinois W 72-52 68%     3 - 11 2 - 4 +9.6 +2.2 +9.7
  Jan 16, 2025 234   SIU Edwardsville L 80-87 2OT 53%     3 - 12 2 - 5 -13.5 -5.9 -6.6
  Jan 18, 2025 338   Eastern Illinois W 84-65 79%     4 - 12 3 - 5 +5.0 +6.7 -2.2
  Jan 21, 2025 306   Tennessee Martin W 81-80 OT 69%     5 - 12 4 - 5 -9.9 -8.7 -1.3
  Jan 23, 2025 308   Tennessee Tech W 89-77 70%     6 - 12 5 - 5 +1.0 +6.0 -5.6
  Jan 30, 2025 233   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 72-70 34%     7 - 12 6 - 5 +0.6 +3.0 -2.4
  Feb 01, 2025 217   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 87-89 OT 31%     7 - 13 6 - 6 -2.6 +5.6 -7.9
  Feb 06, 2025 351   Western Illinois W 87-69 82%     8 - 13 7 - 6 +2.5 +6.0 -3.5
  Feb 08, 2025 335   Lindenwood W 84-76 77%     9 - 13 8 - 6 -5.5 +5.4 -11.1
  Feb 13, 2025 338   @ Eastern Illinois W 66-49 62%     10 - 13 9 - 6 +8.1 -2.9 +12.0
  Feb 15, 2025 234   @ SIU Edwardsville L 72-84 34%     10 - 14 9 - 7 -13.4 -3.1 -9.8
  Feb 18, 2025 306   @ Tennessee Martin W 86-75 51%     11 - 14 10 - 7 +5.2 +11.8 -6.5
  Feb 22, 2025 308   @ Tennessee Tech W 76-75 49%    
  Feb 27, 2025 329   Morehead St. W 75-68 76%    
  Mar 01, 2025 343   Southern Indiana W 80-71 82%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 6.0 6.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 15.3 22.8 38.4 3rd
4th 0.0 7.8 31.2 2.8 41.8 4th
5th 0.4 9.8 10.1 5th
6th 1.8 1.3 3.1 6th
7th 0.4 0.4 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 2.6 19.1 46.6 31.7 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.2% 0.1    0.1
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 31.7% 16.4% 16.4% 15.9 0.7 4.5 26.5
12-8 46.6% 10.0% 10.0% 16.0 0.1 4.5 42.0
11-9 19.1% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.8 18.3
10-10 2.6% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 2.6
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.7% 10.7% 0.0% 15.9 0.8 9.9 89.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.2% 100.0% 15.9 13.1 86.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 12.0%
Lose Out 1.2%