Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.8#301
Expected Predictive Rating-12.3#332
Pace75.9#29
Improvement+2.6#71

Offense
Total Offense-5.3#315
First Shot-5.6#327
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#161
Layup/Dunks+2.0#107
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#91
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.3#346
Freethrows-2.7#324
Improvement+0.2#162

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#256
First Shot-1.8#233
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#262
Layups/Dunks-1.5#233
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#112
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#164
Freethrows-1.8#305
Improvement+2.3#65
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.7% 6.0% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 4.5% 6.6% 1.3%
.500 or above in Conference 43.8% 56.5% 25.5%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 4.2% 2.2% 7.1%
First Four4.1% 5.2% 2.6%
First Round2.5% 3.4% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Home) - 58.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 30 - 50 - 7
Quad 410 - 1211 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 76   @ Colorado St. L 79-87 OT 6%     0 - 1 +2.0 +1.0 +2.2
  Nov 10, 2024 186   @ Wyoming L 66-81 19%     0 - 2 -13.4 -6.0 -7.2
  Nov 13, 2024 281   Howard L 84-88 OT 47%     0 - 3 -10.9 -0.8 -9.9
  Nov 16, 2024 358   Alabama A&M W 81-71 82%     1 - 3 -7.3 -9.3 +0.5
  Nov 25, 2024 156   @ Chattanooga L 78-85 15%     1 - 4 -3.8 -3.6 +0.4
  Nov 26, 2024 157   Bryant L 85-97 22%     1 - 5 -11.6 +0.4 -10.2
  Dec 01, 2024 187   UNC Asheville L 74-92 35%     1 - 6 -21.9 -8.2 -13.1
  Dec 10, 2024 135   @ Western Kentucky L 60-84 13%     1 - 7 -19.5 -11.8 -5.9
  Dec 19, 2024 324   @ Southern Indiana L 75-77 47%     1 - 8 0 - 1 -9.1 -6.4 -2.6
  Dec 21, 2024 259   @ Morehead St. L 68-74 31%     1 - 9 0 - 2 -8.7 +0.3 -9.4
  Jan 02, 2025 269   Southeast Missouri St. L 65-67 54%     1 - 10 0 - 3 -10.9 -13.3 +2.5
  Jan 04, 2025 238   Arkansas Little Rock W 95-86 47%     2 - 10 1 - 3 +1.9 +7.5 -6.9
  Jan 09, 2025 341   @ Lindenwood L 62-72 54%     2 - 11 1 - 4 -18.8 -16.7 -1.5
  Jan 11, 2025 336   @ Western Illinois W 72-52 53%     3 - 11 2 - 4 +11.3 +2.9 +10.8
  Jan 16, 2025 263   SIU Edwardsville L 80-87 2OT 53%     3 - 12 2 - 5 -15.5 -7.0 -7.4
  Jan 18, 2025 344   Eastern Illinois W 84-65 74%     4 - 12 3 - 5 +4.5 +4.7 -0.7
  Jan 21, 2025 288   Tennessee Martin W 75-73 59%    
  Jan 23, 2025 317   Tennessee Tech W 76-72 66%    
  Jan 30, 2025 238   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 68-74 27%    
  Feb 01, 2025 269   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 73-77 34%    
  Feb 06, 2025 336   Western Illinois W 73-67 73%    
  Feb 08, 2025 341   Lindenwood W 77-71 73%    
  Feb 13, 2025 344   @ Eastern Illinois W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 15, 2025 263   @ SIU Edwardsville L 68-73 33%    
  Feb 18, 2025 288   @ Tennessee Martin L 73-76 38%    
  Feb 22, 2025 317   @ Tennessee Tech L 73-75 43%    
  Feb 27, 2025 259   Morehead St. W 70-69 52%    
  Mar 01, 2025 324   Southern Indiana W 77-72 68%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 3.0 1.4 0.1 5.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 4.9 3.2 0.3 0.0 9.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 6.3 5.7 0.9 0.0 14.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.5 7.7 8.4 1.7 0.1 19.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 6.4 8.5 2.1 0.0 18.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.5 6.7 2.1 0.1 14.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.3 1.8 0.1 9.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.3 1.3 0.1 5.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.3 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 2.0 6.0 11.5 16.5 19.7 18.4 13.6 7.9 3.1 0.8 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 77.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0
14-6 41.3% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1
13-7 7.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.6% 0.1    0.1
11-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.8% 25.0% 25.0% 15.8 0.1 0.2 0.6
13-7 3.1% 20.5% 20.5% 15.9 0.1 0.6 2.5
12-8 7.9% 14.1% 14.1% 16.0 1.1 6.7
11-9 13.6% 8.3% 8.3% 16.0 1.1 12.5
10-10 18.4% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.7 17.6
9-11 19.7% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.6 19.1
8-12 16.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 16.3
7-13 11.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.4
6-14 6.0% 6.0
5-15 2.0% 2.0
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.5 95.3 0.0%