Western Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.4#336
Expected Predictive Rating-11.0#327
Pace60.5#350
Improvement-2.1#274

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#313
First Shot-5.7#329
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#150
Layup/Dunks-9.1#363
2 Pt Jumpshots+7.1#3
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#228
Freethrows-2.0#299
Improvement-0.4#205

Defense
Total Defense-6.2#340
First Shot-3.3#279
After Offensive Rebounds-2.9#347
Layups/Dunks-5.3#345
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#215
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#79
Freethrows-0.3#208
Improvement-1.6#275
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.0% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.6% 3.5% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 5.3% 10.7% 2.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 33.5% 20.8% 40.4%
First Four0.6% 0.9% 0.4%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Home) - 35.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 11 - 1
Quad 31 - 32 - 4
Quad 47 - 1410 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 160   @ San Jose St. W 59-55 9%     1 - 0 +7.0 -4.6 +12.3
  Nov 06, 2024 203   @ Pepperdine L 64-77 13%     1 - 1 -12.4 -6.2 -6.5
  Nov 13, 2024 333   Green Bay L 73-87 60%     1 - 2 -28.0 -5.9 -22.5
  Nov 16, 2024 339   Central Arkansas W 63-61 61%     2 - 2 -12.2 -7.2 -4.7
  Nov 19, 2024 113   @ Northern Iowa L 56-82 6%     2 - 3 -20.3 -8.9 -14.4
  Nov 26, 2024 126   @ South Alabama W 64-63 7%     3 - 3 +6.1 +5.9 +0.4
  Nov 27, 2024 303   Incarnate Word L 75-86 37%     3 - 4 -18.9 +0.0 -19.5
  Dec 14, 2024 268   @ South Dakota L 66-89 22%     3 - 5 -26.3 -11.9 -15.1
  Dec 17, 2024 317   Tennessee Tech W 71-68 51%     4 - 5 1 - 0 -8.7 +0.0 -8.4
  Dec 21, 2024 341   @ Lindenwood L 65-71 40%     4 - 6 1 - 1 -14.8 -8.6 -6.3
  Jan 02, 2025 263   @ SIU Edwardsville L 66-77 21%     4 - 7 1 - 2 -14.0 +7.3 -23.6
  Jan 04, 2025 344   @ Eastern Illinois W 75-67 41%     5 - 7 2 - 2 -1.0 +3.1 -3.8
  Jan 09, 2025 288   Tennessee Martin L 83-85 OT 44%     5 - 8 2 - 3 -12.0 +0.2 -12.1
  Jan 11, 2025 301   Tennessee St. L 52-72 47%     5 - 9 2 - 4 -30.6 -18.6 -14.4
  Jan 16, 2025 259   @ Morehead St. L 47-51 20%     5 - 10 2 - 5 -6.7 -16.1 +8.6
  Jan 18, 2025 324   @ Southern Indiana L 66-78 34%     5 - 11 2 - 6 -19.1 +0.5 -21.5
  Jan 23, 2025 238   Arkansas Little Rock L 63-67 35%    
  Jan 25, 2025 269   Southeast Missouri St. L 67-70 42%    
  Jan 30, 2025 344   Eastern Illinois W 67-64 63%    
  Feb 01, 2025 263   SIU Edwardsville L 63-66 40%    
  Feb 06, 2025 301   @ Tennessee St. L 67-73 27%    
  Feb 08, 2025 288   @ Tennessee Martin L 65-72 25%    
  Feb 13, 2025 324   Southern Indiana W 68-67 56%    
  Feb 15, 2025 259   @ Morehead St. L 59-68 21%    
  Feb 20, 2025 269   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 64-72 23%    
  Feb 22, 2025 238   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 60-70 18%    
  Feb 25, 2025 341   Lindenwood W 69-66 62%    
  Feb 27, 2025 317   @ Tennessee Tech L 66-71 30%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.6 0.0 2.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.8 1.4 0.1 5.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 4.5 3.6 0.4 9.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 6.1 6.2 1.1 0.0 14.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 7.8 8.7 2.2 0.1 20.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 3.5 9.0 9.8 3.3 0.3 0.0 26.3 10th
11th 0.8 3.5 7.3 6.1 2.1 0.2 0.0 19.9 11th
Total 0.8 3.9 10.8 16.9 20.8 19.4 14.0 8.0 3.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 25.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.2
11-9 1.5% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 0.1 1.4
10-10 3.5% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.1 3.4
9-11 8.0% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.2 7.9
8-12 14.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 13.8
7-13 19.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 19.4
6-14 20.8% 20.8
5-15 16.9% 16.9
4-16 10.8% 10.8
3-17 3.9% 3.9
2-18 0.8% 0.8
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.6 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%