Western Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.9#328
Expected Predictive Rating-6.7#283
Pace62.3#339
Improvement-1.7#289

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#321
First Shot-5.4#328
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#164
Layup/Dunks-8.3#360
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.4#8
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#209
Freethrows-2.4#311
Improvement+0.0#171

Defense
Total Defense-4.8#319
First Shot-2.3#249
After Offensive Rebounds-2.5#332
Layups/Dunks-5.5#345
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#204
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#68
Freethrows+0.2#173
Improvement-1.7#308
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.5% 4.4% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.9
.500 or above 22.4% 28.8% 11.8%
.500 or above in Conference 36.5% 44.9% 22.3%
Conference Champion 3.4% 4.7% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 18.5% 11.9% 29.4%
First Four2.6% 3.3% 1.6%
First Round2.0% 2.5% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Tech (Home) - 62.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 32 - 32 - 4
Quad 410 - 1312 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 185   @ San Jose St. W 59-55 14%     1 - 0 +5.8 -5.1 +11.6
  Nov 06, 2024 226   @ Pepperdine L 64-77 19%     1 - 1 -13.5 -6.9 -7.0
  Nov 13, 2024 331   Green Bay L 73-87 63%     1 - 2 -27.2 -5.4 -22.2
  Nov 16, 2024 342   Central Arkansas W 63-61 66%     2 - 2 -12.3 -7.0 -5.0
  Nov 19, 2024 99   @ Northern Iowa L 56-82 6%     2 - 3 -17.7 -7.6 -13.2
  Nov 26, 2024 201   @ South Alabama W 64-63 15%     3 - 3 +2.2 +2.9 -0.5
  Nov 27, 2024 307   Incarnate Word L 75-86 42%     3 - 4 -18.8 -0.3 -19.1
  Dec 14, 2024 228   @ South Dakota L 66-89 19%     3 - 5 -23.6 -9.9 -14.4
  Dec 17, 2024 332   Tennessee Tech W 70-67 63%    
  Dec 21, 2024 347   @ Lindenwood L 67-68 46%    
  Jan 02, 2025 263   @ SIU Edwardsville L 62-69 25%    
  Jan 04, 2025 322   @ Eastern Illinois L 64-68 36%    
  Jan 09, 2025 327   Tennessee Martin W 71-68 60%    
  Jan 11, 2025 321   Tennessee St. W 72-70 58%    
  Jan 16, 2025 279   @ Morehead St. L 64-71 27%    
  Jan 18, 2025 281   @ Southern Indiana L 65-72 27%    
  Jan 23, 2025 244   Arkansas Little Rock L 65-67 42%    
  Jan 25, 2025 297   Southeast Missouri St. W 68-67 51%    
  Jan 30, 2025 322   Eastern Illinois W 67-65 58%    
  Feb 01, 2025 263   SIU Edwardsville L 65-66 45%    
  Feb 06, 2025 321   @ Tennessee St. L 69-73 37%    
  Feb 08, 2025 327   @ Tennessee Martin L 68-71 39%    
  Feb 13, 2025 281   Southern Indiana L 68-69 47%    
  Feb 15, 2025 279   @ Morehead St. L 64-71 27%    
  Feb 20, 2025 297   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 65-71 30%    
  Feb 22, 2025 244   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 62-70 23%    
  Feb 25, 2025 347   Lindenwood W 70-65 67%    
  Feb 27, 2025 332   @ Tennessee Tech L 67-70 41%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.4 1st
2nd 0.2 1.1 2.0 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 2.6 1.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 6.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.6 2.4 0.4 0.0 7.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 4.2 3.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 9.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.0 4.0 0.7 0.0 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.8 5.0 1.2 0.1 10.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.5 5.4 1.8 0.1 11.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.5 5.2 2.2 0.2 0.0 12.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.8 4.4 2.3 0.3 0.0 12.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.5 3.4 3.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 11.9 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.8 5.0 7.7 10.0 11.9 12.6 12.0 10.8 8.9 6.8 4.6 2.7 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 96.6% 0.2    0.2 0.0 0.0
16-4 85.4% 0.6    0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 60.9% 1.0    0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 32.7% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 10.9% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.4% 3.4 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 48.0% 48.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.2% 39.5% 39.5% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.6% 29.4% 29.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5
15-5 1.6% 25.9% 25.9% 15.9 0.0 0.4 1.2
14-6 2.7% 19.0% 19.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5 2.2
13-7 4.6% 15.2% 15.2% 16.0 0.0 0.7 3.9
12-8 6.8% 8.3% 8.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6 6.2
11-9 8.9% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4 8.5
10-10 10.8% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.3 10.5
9-11 12.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 11.8
8-12 12.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 12.5
7-13 11.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.9
6-14 10.0% 10.0
5-15 7.7% 7.7
4-16 5.0% 5.0
3-17 2.8% 2.8
2-18 1.2% 1.2
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.3 96.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%