Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.9#249
Expected Predictive Rating-7.5#289
Pace66.7#230
Improvement-1.6#250

Offense
Total Offense-8.3#352
First Shot-10.4#361
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#68
Layup/Dunks+0.4#158
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#251
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.2#345
Freethrows-3.4#349
Improvement+0.7#139

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#83
First Shot+5.8#33
After Offensive Rebounds-2.4#341
Layups/Dunks+0.7#143
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#35
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#66
Freethrows+0.3#161
Improvement-2.2#296
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 2.2% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.8 15.2
.500 or above 15.0% 37.9% 13.2%
.500 or above in Conference 18.0% 43.9% 15.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.1% 1.5% 5.4%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.9% 2.2% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: McNeese St. (Away) - 7.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 32 - 9
Quad 410 - 812 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2024 80   @ Drake L 51-66 9%     0 - 1 -5.1 -8.7 +1.4
  Nov 16, 2024 100   @ Arkansas St. L 49-59 12%     0 - 2 -2.5 -16.4 +13.2
  Nov 21, 2024 273   Presbyterian L 55-58 OT 66%     0 - 3 -12.1 -27.4 +15.4
  Nov 22, 2024 267   Monmouth W 72-67 64%     1 - 3 -3.7 -2.4 -1.2
  Nov 23, 2024 208   Youngstown St. W 64-57 51%     2 - 3 +1.9 -4.6 +6.9
  Nov 29, 2024 347   @ Louisiana Monroe W 68-60 66%     3 - 3 -1.3 +1.0 -1.2
  Dec 05, 2024 247   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 65-68 39%     3 - 4 0 - 1 -5.0 -9.8 +4.8
  Dec 07, 2024 169   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 48-67 24%     3 - 5 0 - 2 -16.6 -19.5 +1.0
  Dec 15, 2024 28   @ Oregon L 61-79 4%     3 - 6 -1.9 -4.5 +2.8
  Dec 31, 2024 242   @ Abilene Christian W 62-57 37%     4 - 6 +3.3 -12.0 +15.0
  Jan 04, 2025 303   Incarnate Word L 49-55 71%     4 - 7 0 - 3 -16.7 -24.0 +6.3
  Jan 06, 2025 316   Houston Christian L 73-83 74%     4 - 8 0 - 4 -21.6 -7.7 -13.6
  Jan 11, 2025 231   @ Lamar W 72-63 36%     5 - 8 1 - 4 +7.8 +5.9 +2.6
  Jan 13, 2025 220   SE Louisiana L 59-66 54%     5 - 9 1 - 5 -13.0 -9.9 -3.8
  Jan 18, 2025 205   @ Nicholls St. L 61-73 30%     5 - 10 1 - 6 -11.4 -10.0 -1.8
  Jan 20, 2025 74   @ McNeese St. L 56-71 7%    
  Jan 25, 2025 289   Northwestern St. W 65-60 69%    
  Jan 27, 2025 354   Texas A&M - Commerce W 69-58 86%    
  Feb 01, 2025 231   Lamar W 64-62 57%    
  Feb 03, 2025 343   @ New Orleans W 71-67 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 169   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 66-68 44%    
  Feb 10, 2025 247   UT Rio Grande Valley W 69-66 61%    
  Feb 15, 2025 289   @ Northwestern St. L 62-63 48%    
  Feb 17, 2025 354   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 66-60 69%    
  Feb 22, 2025 303   @ Incarnate Word W 67-66 50%    
  Feb 24, 2025 316   @ Houston Christian W 65-64 53%    
  Mar 01, 2025 205   Nicholls St. L 66-67 51%    
  Mar 03, 2025 74   @ McNeese St. L 56-71 8%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.8 0.0 2.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.1 2.6 0.4 6.5 5th
6th 0.5 4.1 5.2 1.0 0.0 10.7 6th
7th 0.3 4.0 7.3 1.9 0.1 13.6 7th
8th 0.2 2.9 9.0 3.9 0.2 16.2 8th
9th 0.2 2.9 9.1 6.0 0.5 18.7 9th
10th 0.4 3.2 8.0 5.6 0.8 0.0 18.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 2.4 4.5 2.6 0.4 0.0 10.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.0 2.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.7 8.3 13.8 18.2 20.2 16.4 10.8 5.2 1.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 20.8% 20.8% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-8 1.7% 5.8% 5.8% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.6
11-9 5.2% 4.6% 4.6% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 5.0
10-10 10.8% 3.0% 3.0% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 10.5
9-11 16.4% 1.2% 1.2% 15.7 0.1 0.1 16.2
8-12 20.2% 0.1% 0.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 20.2
7-13 18.2% 18.2
6-14 13.8% 13.8
5-15 8.3% 8.3
4-16 3.7% 3.7
3-17 1.3% 1.3
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 99.1 0.0%