Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#171
Expected Predictive Rating-4.8#266
Pace69.6#174
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#221
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#134
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.2% 23.4% 15.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.7 14.4
.500 or above 81.0% 92.9% 77.0%
.500 or above in Conference 89.7% 94.9% 88.0%
Conference Champion 17.2% 25.1% 14.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four1.0% 0.5% 1.1%
First Round16.7% 23.1% 14.6%
Second Round1.5% 2.8% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.7% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas St. (Away) - 25.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 32 - 7
Quad 416 - 518 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2024 98   @ Drake L 51-66 20%     0 - 1 -6.8 -9.4 +0.4
  Nov 16, 2024 115   @ Arkansas St. L 69-76 25%    
  Nov 21, 2024 264   Presbyterian W 77-69 76%    
  Nov 22, 2024 285   Monmouth W 76-67 79%    
  Nov 23, 2024 185   Youngstown St. W 73-69 63%    
  Nov 29, 2024 319   @ Louisiana Monroe W 71-66 68%    
  Dec 05, 2024 269   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 77-75 58%    
  Dec 07, 2024 219   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 71-72 48%    
  Dec 15, 2024 39   @ Oregon L 63-77 10%    
  Dec 31, 2024 237   @ Abilene Christian L 70-71 50%    
  Jan 04, 2025 327   Incarnate Word W 82-70 85%    
  Jan 06, 2025 358   Houston Christian W 82-65 92%    
  Jan 11, 2025 280   @ Lamar W 73-70 59%    
  Jan 13, 2025 276   SE Louisiana W 72-64 77%    
  Jan 18, 2025 212   @ Nicholls St. L 69-70 48%    
  Jan 20, 2025 99   @ McNeese St. L 64-73 22%    
  Jan 25, 2025 332   Northwestern St. W 76-64 85%    
  Jan 27, 2025 353   Texas A&M - Commerce W 76-60 91%    
  Feb 01, 2025 280   Lamar W 76-67 77%    
  Feb 03, 2025 347   @ New Orleans W 79-70 77%    
  Feb 08, 2025 219   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 74-69 68%    
  Feb 10, 2025 269   UT Rio Grande Valley W 80-72 75%    
  Feb 15, 2025 332   @ Northwestern St. W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 17, 2025 353   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 73-63 79%    
  Feb 22, 2025 327   @ Incarnate Word W 79-73 69%    
  Feb 24, 2025 358   @ Houston Christian W 79-68 82%    
  Mar 01, 2025 212   Nicholls St. W 72-67 67%    
  Mar 03, 2025 99   @ McNeese St. L 64-73 24%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.5 5.0 4.2 2.2 0.6 17.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.5 5.0 8.1 7.0 3.6 0.8 26.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.6 6.1 3.1 0.7 0.0 17.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.8 4.0 1.4 0.1 0.0 12.7 4th
5th 0.2 1.6 3.8 2.8 0.7 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 2.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 6.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 2.0 1.4 0.3 4.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.6 4.4 6.0 8.4 10.4 11.9 12.9 12.7 11.2 8.6 5.0 2.2 0.6 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
19-1 100.0% 2.2    2.1 0.1
18-2 84.8% 4.2    3.4 0.9 0.0
17-3 57.8% 5.0    3.1 1.8 0.1
16-4 31.1% 3.5    1.5 1.5 0.4 0.0
15-5 10.9% 1.4    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0
14-6 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.2% 17.2 11.1 5.1 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.6% 61.2% 60.7% 0.6% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.4%
19-1 2.2% 56.2% 56.1% 0.2% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 0.3%
18-2 5.0% 47.1% 47.1% 13.3 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.7
17-3 8.6% 36.0% 36.0% 13.7 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.5 0.0 5.5
16-4 11.2% 29.1% 29.1% 14.3 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.1 0.3 7.9
15-5 12.7% 21.5% 21.5% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.5 9.9
14-6 12.9% 14.7% 14.7% 15.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.6 11.0
13-7 11.9% 9.6% 9.6% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 10.7
12-8 10.4% 6.4% 6.4% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 9.7
11-9 8.4% 2.8% 2.8% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.1
10-10 6.0% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 5.9
9-11 4.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 4.3
8-12 2.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.6
7-13 1.5% 1.5
6-14 0.9% 0.9
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 17.2% 17.1% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.3 4.8 4.6 2.8 82.9 0.0%