Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.2#142
Expected Predictive Rating+2.5#134
Pace67.3#246
Improvement-2.6#328

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#190
First Shot-5.1#316
After Offensive Rebound+4.2#14
Layup/Dunks-4.5#320
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#36
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#125
Freethrows-5.8#364
Improvement-2.6#345

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#106
First Shot-0.3#180
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#51
Layups/Dunks+0.1#169
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#343
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#19
Freethrows-3.5#338
Improvement-0.1#191
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.7% 16.9% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.5 13.9
.500 or above 95.2% 95.7% 83.3%
.500 or above in Conference 91.2% 91.6% 81.7%
Conference Champion 21.8% 22.2% 13.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 1.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round16.6% 16.9% 10.4%
Second Round1.3% 1.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Monroe (Home) - 95.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 35 - 55 - 7
Quad 415 - 321 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 149 Arkansas St. W 90-65 65%     1 - 0 +22.3 +10.9 +10.1
  Tue, Nov 11 213 @Rice W 81-69 56%     2 - 0 +11.7 +10.9 +1.2
  Fri, Nov 14 215 Abilene Christian W 76-66 77%     3 - 0 +3.5 +5.4 -1.5
  Tue, Nov 18 183 @Fresno St. L 78-80 49%     3 - 1 -0.7 +9.6 -10.3
  Fri, Nov 21 311 @Pepperdine W 63-60 74%     4 - 1 -2.4 -7.7 +5.5
  Sat, Nov 29 191 @Texas Arlington L 61-66 50%     4 - 2 -3.9 -1.3 -3.3
  Wed, Dec 3 209 UT Rio Grande Valley W 73-60 76%     5 - 2 1 - 0 +6.8 -1.5 +8.5
  Sun, Dec 7 360 Louisiana Monroe W 81-63 96%    
  Wed, Dec 17 210 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 71-64 75%    
  Mon, Dec 29 300 @East Texas A&M W 71-65 70%    
  Wed, Dec 31 302 @Northwestern St. W 72-66 71%    
  Sat, Jan 3 246 @SE Louisiana W 69-66 60%    
  Mon, Jan 5 80 @McNeese St. L 63-72 20%    
  Sat, Jan 10 263 Houston Christian W 74-64 81%    
  Mon, Jan 12 188 Incarnate Word W 73-67 70%    
  Sat, Jan 17 244 @New Orleans W 75-72 60%    
  Mon, Jan 19 254 @Nicholls St. W 71-68 62%    
  Sat, Jan 24 214 @Lamar W 66-64 56%    
  Mon, Jan 26 302 Northwestern St. W 75-63 86%    
  Sat, Jan 31 246 SE Louisiana W 72-63 78%    
  Mon, Feb 2 80 McNeese St. L 66-69 39%    
  Sat, Feb 7 214 Lamar W 69-61 75%    
  Mon, Feb 9 300 East Texas A&M W 74-62 85%    
  Sat, Feb 14 209 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 74-73 55%    
  Mon, Feb 16 210 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 68-67 55%    
  Sat, Feb 21 254 Nicholls St. W 74-65 79%    
  Mon, Feb 23 244 New Orleans W 78-69 78%    
  Sat, Feb 28 263 @Houston Christian W 71-67 62%    
  Mon, Mar 2 188 @Incarnate Word L 69-70 50%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 15 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.4 4.4 5.6 4.7 2.7 1.0 0.2 21.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.3 7.1 8.2 6.0 2.9 0.7 0.0 28.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.6 5.9 4.8 2.1 0.4 0.0 17.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.4 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 2.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.4 3.9 5.9 8.2 10.4 12.1 13.4 12.7 10.8 8.5 5.4 2.7 1.0 0.2 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
21-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0
20-2 98.3% 2.7    2.5 0.2
19-3 86.4% 4.7    3.7 1.0 0.0
18-4 66.0% 5.6    3.7 1.8 0.1
17-5 40.4% 4.4    2.3 1.8 0.2 0.0
16-6 18.7% 2.4    0.8 1.2 0.3 0.0
15-7 6.1% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
14-8 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 21.8% 21.8 14.2 6.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 0.2% 60.0% 58.0% 2.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.8%
21-1 1.0% 50.0% 50.0% 11.9 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5
20-2 2.7% 43.1% 43.1% 12.4 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.5
19-3 5.4% 39.8% 39.8% 12.8 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.2
18-4 8.5% 32.1% 32.1% 13.1 0.5 1.5 0.7 0.1 5.8
17-5 10.8% 27.2% 27.2% 13.5 0.2 1.2 1.3 0.2 7.9
16-6 12.7% 20.6% 20.6% 13.8 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.4 0.0 10.1
15-7 13.4% 14.6% 14.6% 14.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.0 11.4
14-8 12.1% 10.6% 10.6% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 10.8
13-9 10.4% 6.1% 6.1% 14.6 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 9.8
12-10 8.2% 4.1% 4.1% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 7.8
11-11 5.9% 2.4% 2.4% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.7
10-12 3.9% 2.8% 2.8% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.8
9-13 2.4% 0.3% 0.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 2.4
8-14 1.3% 1.3
7-15 0.7% 0.7
6-16 0.3% 0.3
5-17 0.1% 0.1
4-18 0.0% 0.0
3-19 0.0% 0.0
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.9 5.6 2.3 0.3 83.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 10.7 14.3 39.3 25.0