Wake Forest
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.6 #63
Expected Predictive Rating +8.5 #71
Pace 72.6 #84
Improvement -4.7 #348

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #91 C+ B+ B- C C+
Defense #54 B- C+ A+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #201 1.18 #153 -0.1 #183
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #264 0.99 #7 +0.4 #156
Three Pointers 46% #83 0.99 #218 +1.9 #117
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #117 +2.2 #116
Freethrows 17.3 #208 76% #68 13.1 #155
Second Chance 32.6% #129 1.21 #25 0.40 #49
Turnovers 15.0% #85
Total Offense +3.7 #91

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #307 1.22 #260 +1.6 #125
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #300 0.72 #120 +1.8 #53
Three Pointers 50% #14 0.88 #37 -1.0 #223
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #100 +2.5 #99
Freethrows 17.8 #189 74% #262 13.1 #210
Second Chance 29.9% #146 1.00 #119 0.30 #122
Turnovers 21.8% #7
Total Defense +5.0 #54

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #128 0.4% #196
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.3% #125 -5.2% #84
Possession Length 16.0 #58 18.0 #291
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #68 0.14 #80
Improvement -2.5 #314 -2.2 #303

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.2% 25.0% 7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.0% 24.4% 6.9%
Average Seed 10.3 10.0 10.4
.500 or above 66.4% 88.2% 64.9%
.500 or above in Conference 23.6% 51.2% 21.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.1% 1.3% 4.3%
First Four4.5% 10.1% 4.1%
First Round5.7% 19.1% 4.9%
Second Round1.8% 7.1% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 1.0% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Duke (Away) - 6.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 10
Quad 26 - 58 - 15
Quad 33 - 110 - 16
Quad 46 - 017 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 224 American W 88 - 74 92% +9  1 - 0 +7 +6 D A+ A -0 B- F A+
 Fri, Nov 7 302 Morehead St. W 81 - 65 96% +8  2 - 0 +5 -9 F A- F +12 A+ C A+
 Tue, Nov 11 1 Michigan L 84 - 85 OT 7% -2  2 - 1 +24 +8 D A+ A- +16 A+ A- A+
 Sun, Nov 16 309 Umass Lowell W 109 - 75 96% +15  3 - 1 +23 +22 A- A+ A+ -2 D A+ C
 Thu, Nov 20 15 Texas Tech L 83 - 84 19% -2  3 - 2 +17 +12 B+ A+ A+ +5 A- C A+
 Fri, Nov 21 92 Memphis W 69 - 68 61% -5  4 - 2 +7 +5 D A+ C- +1 D A- A+
 Tue, Nov 25 190 Campbell W 99 - 51 89% +26  5 - 2 +43 +20 A+ A+ A+ +22 A+ A+ C+
 Fri, Nov 28 259 Northeastern W 86 - 73 93% +7  6 - 2 +5 +3 A+ A- F +1 F A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 57 Oklahoma L 68 - 86 57% -4  6 - 3 -11 -6 F F C- -5 F C- A
 Sat, Dec 6 52 West Virginia W 75 - 66 42% +6  7 - 3 +20 +20 A+ B C +1 A- F A+
 Sun, Dec 14 177 Queens W 111 - 73 88% +19  8 - 3 +34 +29 A+ A C +4 C+ A A-
 Wed, Dec 17 262 Longwood W 71 - 68 94% +2  9 - 3 -6 -10 F F A- +4 A+ C- D+
 Sun, Dec 21 21 Vanderbilt L 67 - 98 30% -19  9 - 4 -17 -3 D- C+ F -12 F A+ A
 Wed, Dec 31 26 @North Carolina St. L 57 - 70 18% -7  9 - 5 0 - 1 +5 -9 F F C- +15 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 58 Virginia Tech W 81 - 78 57% +4  10 - 5 1 - 1 +10 +7 C- A+ A+ +3 C- B+ A+
 Wed, Jan 7 40 Miami (FL) L 77 - 81 47% +1  10 - 6 1 - 2 +5 +11 A+ C- B+ -6 A+ F A-
 Sat, Jan 10 31 @North Carolina L 84 - 87 21% -8  10 - 7 1 - 3 +14 +16 A+ A+ F -2 C F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 111 @Florida St. W 69 - 68 58% -3  11 - 7 2 - 3 +8 +3 D A+ A+ +5 A- D A+
 Tue, Jan 20 29 SMU L 79 - 91 40% -8  11 - 8 2 - 4 -1 +3 B D+ A -3 D- C A+
 Sat, Jan 24 3 @Duke L 67 - 84 6%
 Tue, Jan 27 91 @Pittsburgh L 73 - 74 49%
 Sat, Jan 31 26 North Carolina St. L 76 - 80 36%
 Sat, Feb 7 13 Louisville L 77 - 84 26%
 Wed, Feb 11 113 @Georgia Tech W 78 - 76 58%
 Sat, Feb 14 77 Stanford W 77 - 73 64%
 Wed, Feb 18 32 Clemson L 69 - 71 41%
 Sat, Feb 21 58 @Virginia Tech L 74 - 78 35%
 Tue, Feb 24 134 @Boston College W 72 - 68 64%
 Sat, Feb 28 67 Syracuse W 77 - 74 63%
 Tue, Mar 3 16 @Virginia L 67 - 79 13%
 Sat, Mar 7 75 California W 77 - 73 64%
Totals 16 - 15 7 - 11 +9 +4 C+ B+ B- +5 B- C+ A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.1 1.6 5th
6th 0.2 1.9 0.8 0.0 2.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 2.9 0.3 5.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 4.8 1.6 0.0 7.4 8th
9th 0.2 4.5 4.6 0.3 9.6 9th
10th 0.0 2.2 7.4 1.7 0.0 11.3 10th
11th 0.5 6.7 5.3 0.2 12.7 11th
12th 0.0 3.0 7.6 1.5 0.0 12.1 12th
13th 0.8 7.1 3.6 0.1 11.6 13th
14th 0.1 3.3 5.5 0.7 9.6 14th
15th 0.9 4.4 1.6 0.0 6.9 15th
16th 0.1 2.2 2.2 0.2 4.6 16th
17th 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 2.6 17th
18th 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.1 18th
Total 0.2 1.3 5.2 11.1 17.8 21.1 19.8 13.3 7.1 2.5 0.5 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 4.5% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 90.9% 90.9% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.9%
12-6 0.5% 83.5% 1.8% 81.7% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 83.2%
11-7 2.5% 65.2% 0.6% 64.6% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.9 65.0%
10-8 7.1% 39.8% 0.6% 39.2% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.4 0.0 4.3 39.4%
9-9 13.3% 17.6% 0.4% 17.3% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 0.0 10.9 17.3%
8-10 19.8% 3.5% 0.2% 3.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 19.1 3.3%
7-11 21.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 21.0 0.3%
6-12 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 17.8 0.0%
5-13 11.1% 11.1
4-14 5.2% 5.2
3-15 1.3% 1.3
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.2% 0.2% 8.0% 10.3 91.8 8.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%