Towson
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#176
Expected Predictive Rating+0.2#171
Pace58.7#358
Improvement+1.7#108

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#220
First Shot-7.8#352
After Offensive Rebound+6.1#2
Layup/Dunks-3.5#298
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#121
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#251
Freethrows-2.8#328
Improvement+2.7#49

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#137
First Shot-0.6#197
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#56
Layups/Dunks-0.9#206
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#44
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#270
Freethrows+0.3#165
Improvement-1.0#237
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.3% 10.8% 7.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.4 14.9
.500 or above 78.7% 82.1% 57.4%
.500 or above in Conference 97.8% 98.7% 92.2%
Conference Champion 28.9% 31.6% 11.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round10.3% 10.7% 7.1%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: N.C. A&T (Home) - 86.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 36 - 77 - 11
Quad 411 - 417 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 35   @ St. Mary's L 69-76 8%     0 - 1 +8.4 +9.0 -1.1
  Nov 12, 2024 82   @ South Carolina L 54-80 17%     0 - 2 -16.4 -11.8 -5.0
  Nov 16, 2024 149   James Madison W 67-63 54%     1 - 2 +2.3 -1.2 +3.8
  Nov 20, 2024 205   @ Nicholls St. W 70-64 45%     2 - 2 +6.6 +4.0 +3.2
  Nov 24, 2024 334   @ Morgan St. W 64-60 78%     3 - 2 -4.6 -13.6 +9.1
  Nov 28, 2024 159   Kent St. L 54-65 46%     3 - 3 -10.7 -5.9 -6.7
  Nov 29, 2024 183   Kennesaw St. L 63-67 OT 51%     3 - 4 -5.0 -7.7 +2.5
  Nov 30, 2024 60   UC Irvine L 60-67 18%     3 - 5 +2.3 -0.8 +2.7
  Dec 07, 2024 271   Maryland Baltimore Co. L 71-84 79%     3 - 6 -22.0 -12.9 -8.5
  Dec 14, 2024 116   Duquesne L 47-65 37%     3 - 7 -15.1 -9.7 -10.6
  Dec 17, 2024 216   @ Robert Morris L 67-68 49%     3 - 8 -1.4 +3.1 -4.6
  Dec 22, 2024 157   Bryant W 70-65 57%     4 - 8 +2.7 -2.8 +5.5
  Jan 02, 2025 141   @ UNC Wilmington W 65-61 OT 32%     5 - 8 1 - 0 +8.3 -4.0 +12.5
  Jan 04, 2025 127   @ College of Charleston L 69-77 29%     5 - 9 1 - 1 -2.9 +0.8 -3.9
  Jan 09, 2025 200   Northeastern W 80-73 65%     6 - 9 2 - 1 +2.4 +16.0 -12.6
  Jan 11, 2025 193   @ Drexel W 93-82 OT 42%     7 - 9 3 - 1 +12.4 +17.2 -5.5
  Jan 16, 2025 174   Hofstra W 65-60 60%     8 - 9 4 - 1 +1.8 +6.7 -4.1
  Jan 18, 2025 320   Stony Brook W 53-49 85%     9 - 9 5 - 1 -8.0 -16.4 +9.2
  Jan 23, 2025 323   N.C. A&T W 75-64 86%    
  Jan 27, 2025 200   @ Northeastern L 64-66 44%    
  Jan 30, 2025 196   @ Delaware L 70-72 43%    
  Feb 01, 2025 193   Drexel W 63-59 63%    
  Feb 06, 2025 320   @ Stony Brook W 67-61 70%    
  Feb 08, 2025 267   @ Monmouth W 66-63 59%    
  Feb 13, 2025 196   Delaware W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 15, 2025 267   Monmouth W 69-61 77%    
  Feb 20, 2025 158   @ Elon L 62-66 35%    
  Feb 22, 2025 252   @ Campbell W 64-62 55%    
  Feb 27, 2025 189   William & Mary W 73-70 63%    
  Mar 01, 2025 256   Hampton W 66-59 77%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1.0 5.7 10.8 7.4 3.4 0.6 28.9 1st
2nd 0.6 6.2 10.6 5.2 0.9 0.0 23.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.2 8.8 3.6 0.4 16.0 3rd
4th 1.1 6.4 3.3 0.2 11.0 4th
5th 0.2 3.1 4.4 0.5 8.1 5th
6th 0.9 3.4 0.9 0.0 5.2 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 1.3 3.4 7th
8th 0.3 1.4 0.2 1.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.6 4.8 9.1 15.4 19.7 20.1 16.3 8.3 3.4 0.6 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6
16-2 99.1% 3.4    3.2 0.2
15-3 88.7% 7.4    5.4 1.9 0.1
14-4 65.8% 10.8    4.9 4.7 1.1 0.1
13-5 28.6% 5.7    1.1 2.6 1.6 0.4 0.0
12-6 4.8% 1.0    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 28.9% 28.9 15.2 9.5 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.6% 30.2% 30.2% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
16-2 3.4% 19.2% 19.2% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 2.8
15-3 8.3% 17.8% 17.8% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 6.8
14-4 16.3% 14.0% 14.0% 14.3 0.3 1.2 0.8 0.0 14.0
13-5 20.1% 11.7% 11.7% 14.6 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.1 17.7
12-6 19.7% 10.0% 10.0% 15.0 0.3 1.4 0.3 17.7
11-7 15.4% 5.9% 5.9% 15.3 0.0 0.6 0.3 14.5
10-8 9.1% 3.4% 3.4% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 8.8
9-9 4.8% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.1 4.7
8-10 1.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.6
7-11 0.5% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.3% 10.3% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.4 4.6 1.0 89.7 0.0%