Towson
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#209
Expected Predictive Rating-4.5#242
Pace59.0#359
Improvement-4.6#357

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#269
First Shot-9.5#360
After Offensive Rebound+6.1#1
Layup/Dunks-3.7#305
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#228
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#240
Freethrows-2.8#328
Improvement-2.5#334

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#140
First Shot+0.4#162
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#137
Layups/Dunks-1.8#244
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#29
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#175
Freethrows-0.3#210
Improvement-2.1#322
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.1% 6.0% 4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.6 15.0
.500 or above 32.1% 43.0% 21.2%
.500 or above in Conference 61.4% 66.4% 56.3%
Conference Champion 5.3% 6.5% 4.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.4% 2.3% 4.6%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 0.8%
First Round4.9% 5.8% 3.9%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Robert Morris (Away) - 50.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 34 - 74 - 12
Quad 410 - 614 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 41   @ St. Mary's L 69-76 7%     0 - 1 +7.6 +9.4 -2.2
  Nov 12, 2024 69   @ South Carolina L 54-80 11%     0 - 2 -15.1 -12.2 -3.3
  Nov 16, 2024 112   James Madison W 67-63 38%     1 - 2 +4.6 -1.0 +6.0
  Nov 20, 2024 243   @ Nicholls St. W 70-64 47%     2 - 2 +4.4 +4.0 +1.0
  Nov 24, 2024 349   @ Morgan St. W 64-60 74%     3 - 2 -5.2 -12.7 +7.7
  Nov 28, 2024 115   Kent St. L 54-65 29%     3 - 3 -7.7 -5.5 -4.0
  Nov 29, 2024 154   Kennesaw St. L 63-67 OT 40%     3 - 4 -3.7 -7.2 +3.3
  Nov 30, 2024 63   UC Irvine L 60-67 15%     3 - 5 +1.7 -1.1 +2.5
  Dec 07, 2024 255   Maryland Baltimore Co. L 71-84 71%     3 - 6 -21.3 -11.3 -9.4
  Dec 14, 2024 198   Duquesne L 47-65 47%     3 - 7 -19.7 -10.9 -14.0
  Dec 17, 2024 259   @ Robert Morris W 63-62 50%    
  Dec 22, 2024 176   Bryant W 71-70 55%    
  Jan 02, 2025 142   @ UNC Wilmington L 62-68 28%    
  Jan 04, 2025 122   @ College of Charleston L 63-71 23%    
  Jan 09, 2025 158   Northeastern W 64-63 52%    
  Jan 11, 2025 153   @ Drexel L 58-64 30%    
  Jan 16, 2025 156   Hofstra W 60-59 52%    
  Jan 18, 2025 309   Stony Brook W 68-59 79%    
  Jan 23, 2025 313   N.C. A&T W 74-65 80%    
  Jan 27, 2025 158   @ Northeastern L 61-66 31%    
  Jan 30, 2025 207   @ Delaware L 67-70 39%    
  Feb 01, 2025 153   Drexel W 62-61 51%    
  Feb 06, 2025 309   @ Stony Brook W 65-62 59%    
  Feb 08, 2025 273   @ Monmouth W 65-64 52%    
  Feb 13, 2025 207   Delaware W 70-67 61%    
  Feb 15, 2025 273   Monmouth W 68-61 72%    
  Feb 20, 2025 149   @ Elon L 61-67 30%    
  Feb 22, 2025 269   @ Campbell W 63-62 51%    
  Feb 27, 2025 225   William & Mary W 73-69 64%    
  Mar 01, 2025 270   Hampton W 65-59 72%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 7.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.4 3.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 8.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 4.8 2.3 0.2 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.9 3.5 0.5 0.0 9.8 5th
6th 0.3 3.8 4.9 1.0 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.1 2.1 5.8 1.9 0.1 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 4.8 3.2 0.3 9.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.5 4.1 0.6 0.0 8.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.9 1.2 0.0 7.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.0 1.7 0.1 5.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.5 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.2 4.5 7.5 10.5 12.6 14.5 14.1 12.3 9.1 5.9 3.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 96.2% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
15-3 81.2% 1.1    0.8 0.3 0.0
14-4 53.6% 1.8    0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 22.7% 1.3    0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.3% 5.3 2.5 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 24.6% 24.6% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.5% 23.3% 23.3% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
15-3 1.4% 19.5% 19.5% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1
14-4 3.3% 18.4% 18.4% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.7
13-5 5.9% 13.2% 13.2% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 5.1
12-6 9.1% 10.4% 10.4% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 8.2
11-7 12.3% 8.2% 8.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 11.3
10-8 14.1% 4.4% 4.4% 15.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 13.5
9-9 14.5% 2.5% 2.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 14.1
8-10 12.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2 12.4
7-11 10.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 10.4
6-12 7.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.5
5-13 4.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.4
4-14 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.2
3-15 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.0
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 14.8 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.1 1.2 94.9 0.0%