IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Towson
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	+1.6	#134
Expected Predictive Rating	-0.6	#211

Pace	63.4	#330
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.0	#170

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+1.7	#119

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	13.5%	16.1%	10.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.2	13.0	13.7

.500 or above	76.1%	84.7%	64.5%
.500 or above in Conference	85.1%	89.0%	79.8%
Conference Champion	16.4%	19.7%	12.0%
Last Place in Conference	0.8%	0.4%	1.2%

First Four	0.3%	0.2%	0.4%
First Round	13.4%	15.9%	9.9%
Second Round	2.0%	2.5%	1.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.5%	0.7%	0.2%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: James Madison (Home) - 57.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 5
Quad 3	5 - 5	6 - 10
Quad 4	13 - 4	19 - 13

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	40	@ St. Mary's	L	69-76	13%	0 - 1			+6.8	+6.9	-0.6
Nov 12, 2024	64	@ South Carolina	L	54-80	18%	0 - 2			-14.4	-11.7	-3.1
Nov 16, 2024	126	James Madison	W	71-69	58%
Nov 20, 2024	212	@ Nicholls St.	W	67-66	55%
Nov 24, 2024	338	@ Morgan St.	W	77-67	81%
Nov 28, 2024	122	Kent St.	L	65-66	45%
Nov 29, 2024	176	Kennesaw St.	W	77-75	59%
Nov 30, 2024	60	UC Irvine	L	63-70	26%
Dec 07, 2024	302	Maryland Baltimore Co.	W	81-69	85%
Dec 14, 2024	157	Duquesne	W	67-66	54%
Dec 17, 2024	295	@ Robert Morris	W	71-65	69%
Dec 22, 2024	193	Bryant	W	77-71	71%
Jan 02, 2025	156	@ UNC Wilmington	L	67-69	43%
Jan 04, 2025	100	@ College of Charleston	L	73-79	29%
Jan 09, 2025	170	Northeastern	W	69-64	67%
Jan 11, 2025	137	@ Drexel	L	62-65	41%
Jan 16, 2025	131	Hofstra	W	67-64	60%
Jan 18, 2025	287	Stony Brook	W	74-63	83%
Jan 23, 2025	300	N.C. A&T	W	77-65	84%
Jan 27, 2025	170	@ Northeastern	L	66-67	47%
Jan 30, 2025	204	@ Delaware	W	70-69	54%
Feb 01, 2025	137	Drexel	W	65-62	61%
Feb 06, 2025	287	@ Stony Brook	W	71-66	67%
Feb 08, 2025	285	@ Monmouth	W	72-67	67%
Feb 13, 2025	204	Delaware	W	73-66	73%
Feb 15, 2025	285	Monmouth	W	75-64	83%
Feb 20, 2025	272	@ Elon	W	71-66	65%
Feb 22, 2025	304	@ Campbell	W	69-63	69%
Feb 27, 2025	244	William & Mary	W	74-65	77%
Mar 01, 2025	323	Hampton	W	76-62	88%
Projected Record						18 - 12	12 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.1	1.1	3.3	4.9	4.3	2.2	0.5		16.4	1st
2nd											0.0	0.2	1.8	4.7	5.8	3.0	0.6	0.0			16.1	2nd
3rd											0.1	1.5	5.2	5.0	2.0	0.2					14.0	3rd
4th										0.1	1.2	4.7	4.9	1.6	0.2	0.0					12.7	4th
5th									0.0	0.7	3.7	4.7	1.5	0.1							10.6	5th
6th								0.0	0.3	2.5	3.9	1.4	0.1								8.2	6th
7th								0.1	1.3	3.3	1.6	0.1	0.0								6.4	7th
8th							0.0	0.6	2.3	1.8	0.2	0.0									5.0	8th
9th						0.0	0.3	1.6	1.6	0.3	0.0										3.8	9th
10th					0.0	0.1	0.9	1.3	0.3	0.0											2.7	10th
11th					0.0	0.4	0.9	0.4	0.0												1.8	11th
12th				0.0	0.3	0.6	0.3	0.0													1.2	12th
13th		0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0														0.7	13th
14th	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0														0.3	14th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.3	2.5	4.1	5.9	8.6	10.8	12.6	13.5	12.6	11.3	8.1	4.9	2.2	0.5			Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.5		0.5
17-1	98.3%	2.2		2.0	0.2
16-2	87.6%	4.3		3.2	1.0	0.1
15-3	60.8%	4.9		2.7	1.9	0.3	0.0
14-4	29.2%	3.3		1.0	1.5	0.6	0.1
13-5	8.7%	1.1		0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.9%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	16.4%	16.4		9.7	5.0	1.4	0.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.5%		55.6%	49.4%	6.2%	10.2				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.2		12.2%
17-1	2.2%		42.7%	41.6%	1.1%	11.6					0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0			1.3		1.8%
16-2	4.9%		38.5%	38.4%	0.1%	12.4											0.0	0.2	0.9	0.7	0.1	0.0		3.0		0.1%
15-3	8.1%		29.9%	29.9%		12.8												0.0	0.9	1.1	0.4	0.0		5.7
14-4	11.3%		22.6%	22.6%		13.2												0.0	0.5	1.2	0.7	0.1	0.0	8.7
13-5	12.6%		16.2%	16.2%		13.7													0.2	0.7	0.8	0.3	0.0	10.6
12-6	13.5%		10.9%	10.9%		14.1													0.0	0.4	0.7	0.4	0.1	12.1
11-7	12.6%		7.6%	7.6%		14.3													0.0	0.1	0.4	0.3	0.1	11.6
10-8	10.8%		4.8%	4.8%		14.8														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	10.2
9-9	8.6%		2.7%	2.7%		15.2														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	8.4
8-10	5.9%		2.1%	2.1%		15.5															0.0	0.1	0.1	5.8
7-11	4.1%		1.4%	1.4%		15.6														0.0		0.0	0.0	4.0
6-12	2.5%		0.5%	0.5%		15.8																0.0	0.0	2.5
5-13	1.3%																							1.3
4-14	0.7%																							0.7
3-15	0.3%																							0.3
2-16	0.1%																							0.1
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		13.5%	13.4%	0.1%	13.2				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.6	3.0	4.3	3.3	1.6	0.5	86.5		0.1%