Towson
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.4#157
Expected Predictive Rating+2.1#133
Pace60.5#351
Improvement+3.7#42

Offense
Total Offense-1.9#225
First Shot-7.9#352
After Offensive Rebound+6.1#3
Layup/Dunks-3.6#304
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#120
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#257
Freethrows-2.8#326
Improvement+1.5#112

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#102
First Shot+0.5#162
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#56
Layups/Dunks-0.4#187
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#42
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#258
Freethrows+0.5#151
Improvement+2.2#67
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.0% 19.5% 16.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.7 14.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 92.7% 99.1% 87.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round17.9% 19.5% 16.7%
Second Round0.7% 1.1% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Campbell (Away) - 44.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 36 - 77 - 10
Quad 413 - 220 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 30   @ St. Mary's L 69-76 7%     0 - 1 +10.2 +11.1 -1.4
  Nov 12, 2024 84   @ South Carolina L 54-80 20%     0 - 2 -16.7 -11.9 -5.2
  Nov 16, 2024 138   James Madison W 67-63 57%     1 - 2 +2.7 -2.5 +5.5
  Nov 20, 2024 192   @ Nicholls St. W 70-64 49%     2 - 2 +6.7 +4.3 +2.9
  Nov 24, 2024 330   @ Morgan St. W 64-60 79%     3 - 2 -3.9 -13.2 +9.5
  Nov 28, 2024 137   Kent St. L 54-65 47%     3 - 3 -9.7 -7.8 -3.7
  Nov 29, 2024 131   Kennesaw St. L 63-67 OT 45%     3 - 4 -2.4 -5.0 +2.5
  Nov 30, 2024 85   UC Irvine L 60-67 27%     3 - 5 -0.3 -2.0 +1.3
  Dec 07, 2024 288   Maryland Baltimore Co. L 71-84 83%     3 - 6 -22.6 -12.9 -9.0
  Dec 14, 2024 132   Duquesne L 47-65 45%     3 - 7 -16.4 -9.7 -11.8
  Dec 17, 2024 173   @ Robert Morris L 67-68 44%     3 - 8 +1.0 +3.9 -3.0
  Dec 22, 2024 161   Bryant W 70-65 61%     4 - 8 +2.5 -3.1 +5.7
  Jan 02, 2025 116   @ UNC Wilmington W 65-61 OT 32%     5 - 8 1 - 0 +9.4 -4.0 +13.6
  Jan 04, 2025 143   @ College of Charleston L 69-77 38%     5 - 9 1 - 1 -4.4 -0.1 -4.5
  Jan 09, 2025 212   Northeastern W 80-73 71%     6 - 9 2 - 1 +1.8 +15.5 -12.8
  Jan 11, 2025 195   @ Drexel W 93-82 OT 49%     7 - 9 3 - 1 +11.6 +17.2 -6.3
  Jan 16, 2025 227   Hofstra W 65-60 73%     8 - 9 4 - 1 -1.1 +4.1 -4.3
  Jan 18, 2025 320   Stony Brook W 53-49 87%     9 - 9 5 - 1 -7.9 -17.7 +10.5
  Jan 23, 2025 316   N.C. A&T W 83-67 87%     10 - 9 6 - 1 +4.3 +9.2 -4.2
  Jan 27, 2025 212   @ Northeastern W 75-65 52%     11 - 9 7 - 1 +9.9 +7.3 +3.3
  Jan 30, 2025 244   @ Delaware W 76-66 59%     12 - 9 8 - 1 +8.0 +1.4 +7.0
  Feb 01, 2025 195   Drexel W 55-54 68%     13 - 9 9 - 1 -3.5 -1.8 -1.4
  Feb 06, 2025 320   @ Stony Brook W 66-59 76%     14 - 9 10 - 1 +0.1 -3.9 +5.0
  Feb 08, 2025 255   @ Monmouth W 73-67 62%     15 - 9 11 - 1 +3.3 +6.3 -2.3
  Feb 13, 2025 244   Delaware W 75-70 76%     16 - 9 12 - 1 -2.0 -1.9 +0.1
  Feb 15, 2025 255   Monmouth W 80-54 78%     17 - 9 13 - 1 +18.2 +8.2 +11.7
  Feb 20, 2025 175   @ Elon L 63-69 45%     17 - 10 13 - 2 -4.3 -8.5 +4.1
  Feb 22, 2025 183   @ Campbell L 62-63 44%    
  Feb 27, 2025 216   William & Mary W 75-69 73%    
  Mar 01, 2025 250   Hampton W 68-60 78%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1.2 18.8 46.1 26.6 92.7 1st
2nd 2.3 4.2 6.5 2nd
3rd 0.7 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 4.2 23.0 46.1 26.6 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 26.6    26.6
15-3 100.0% 46.1    37.0 9.2
14-4 81.8% 18.8    6.7 9.1 3.0 0.1
13-5 27.3% 1.2    0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 92.7% 92.7 70.2 18.5 3.6 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 26.6% 20.9% 20.9% 13.5 0.4 2.4 2.5 0.4 21.1
15-3 46.1% 18.0% 18.0% 14.1 0.1 1.1 4.9 2.3 0.0 37.8
14-4 23.0% 15.4% 15.4% 14.5 0.1 1.6 1.8 0.1 19.5
13-5 4.2% 12.3% 12.3% 14.9 0.1 0.3 0.1 3.7
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.0% 18.0% 0.0% 14.0 0.4 3.6 9.1 4.7 0.2 82.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.6% 100.0% 13.5 6.3 42.6 44.8 6.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.5%
Lose Out 1.9%