Kent St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.3#115
Expected Predictive Rating+8.5#70
Pace62.7#331
Improvement+2.3#48

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#198
First Shot-3.0#265
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#72
Layup/Dunks-5.1#331
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#195
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#129
Freethrows+1.0#111
Improvement+1.2#86

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#70
First Shot+3.7#75
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#141
Layups/Dunks+1.1#131
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#9
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#143
Freethrows-1.4#276
Improvement+1.1#92
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.5% 40.9% 32.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.2 13.0
.500 or above 99.4% 100.0% 99.3%
.500 or above in Conference 97.1% 99.3% 97.0%
Conference Champion 46.7% 59.8% 46.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round32.5% 40.9% 32.2%
Second Round4.4% 8.2% 4.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.8% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 4.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 35 - 35 - 6
Quad 417 - 222 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 304   @ Louisiana W 70-66 78%     1 - 0 -0.8 -2.5 +1.9
  Nov 13, 2024 1   @ Auburn L 56-79 3%     1 - 1 +2.7 -2.1 +2.3
  Nov 21, 2024 314   Niagara W 76-73 91%     2 - 1 -8.7 +1.6 -10.0
  Nov 23, 2024 241   @ Cleveland St. W 68-52 67%     3 - 1 +14.8 +2.2 +13.8
  Nov 28, 2024 209   Towson W 65-54 71%     4 - 1 +8.6 +4.1 +6.4
  Nov 29, 2024 63   UC Irvine L 39-51 30%     4 - 2 -3.3 -20.7 +16.0
  Nov 30, 2024 154   Kennesaw St. W 67-60 62%     5 - 2 +7.3 -4.8 +12.2
  Dec 06, 2024 312   Portland W 76-57 91%     6 - 2 +7.7 +4.9 +4.4
  Dec 15, 2024 360   Mercyhurst W 82-57 96%     7 - 2 +7.3 +7.0 +2.2
  Dec 22, 2024 7   @ Alabama L 65-83 4%    
  Jan 04, 2025 285   Ball St. W 72-59 89%    
  Jan 07, 2025 344   @ Northern Illinois W 72-60 86%    
  Jan 11, 2025 324   @ Buffalo W 72-63 81%    
  Jan 14, 2025 295   Western Michigan W 73-60 89%    
  Jan 18, 2025 195   Miami (OH) W 69-61 77%    
  Jan 21, 2025 206   @ Toledo W 73-70 60%    
  Jan 25, 2025 161   @ Ohio W 70-69 52%    
  Jan 28, 2025 265   Bowling Green W 75-63 86%    
  Feb 01, 2025 146   Akron W 74-68 70%    
  Feb 04, 2025 317   @ Eastern Michigan W 71-62 80%    
  Feb 11, 2025 219   Central Michigan W 71-62 80%    
  Feb 15, 2025 161   Ohio W 73-67 72%    
  Feb 18, 2025 265   @ Bowling Green W 72-66 71%    
  Feb 22, 2025 195   @ Miami (OH) W 66-64 57%    
  Feb 25, 2025 206   Toledo W 76-67 78%    
  Mar 01, 2025 146   @ Akron L 71-72 49%    
  Mar 04, 2025 295   @ Western Michigan W 70-63 74%    
  Mar 07, 2025 317   Eastern Michigan W 74-59 91%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.9 9.5 13.5 11.2 6.1 1.7 46.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.8 8.0 6.2 2.2 0.3 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.5 3.2 0.6 0.0 12.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.8 2.2 0.3 0.0 8.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 4.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.1 5.8 8.9 12.4 15.5 16.4 15.8 11.5 6.1 1.7 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.7    1.7
17-1 100.0% 6.1    6.1 0.1
16-2 97.6% 11.2    10.3 1.0 0.0
15-3 85.7% 13.5    10.0 3.3 0.2
14-4 58.0% 9.5    4.8 3.8 0.9 0.0
13-5 25.5% 3.9    1.0 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.8% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 46.7% 46.7 33.9 10.1 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.7% 61.8% 61.7% 0.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.6 0.3%
17-1 6.1% 55.2% 55.1% 0.1% 12.1 0.0 0.4 2.3 0.7 0.0 2.7 0.1%
16-2 11.5% 47.9% 47.9% 12.5 0.1 2.9 2.2 0.2 6.0
15-3 15.8% 40.8% 40.8% 12.8 0.0 2.1 3.5 0.8 0.0 9.4
14-4 16.4% 35.0% 35.0% 13.1 0.0 1.0 3.1 1.5 0.1 10.7
13-5 15.5% 28.9% 28.9% 13.5 0.3 2.0 1.9 0.3 11.0
12-6 12.4% 23.5% 23.5% 13.7 0.1 1.0 1.4 0.4 0.0 9.5
11-7 8.9% 19.0% 19.0% 14.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 7.2
10-8 5.8% 14.0% 14.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 5.0
9-9 3.1% 12.6% 12.6% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.7
8-10 1.6% 7.8% 7.8% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.5
7-11 0.7% 2.2% 2.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.7
6-12 0.3% 0.3
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 32.5% 32.5% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 9.3 13.1 7.4 1.7 0.1 67.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 9.4 2.1 6.4 19.1 4.3 12.8 14.9 27.7 12.8