Cleveland St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.5#173
Expected Predictive Rating+1.6#143
Pace67.2#222
Improvement+7.6#3

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#198
First Shot-2.7#255
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#71
Layup/Dunks-1.2#224
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#49
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#316
Freethrows+0.5#141
Improvement+6.7#2

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#161
First Shot+2.0#115
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#310
Layups/Dunks+0.2#162
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#77
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#159
Freethrows-0.4#215
Improvement+0.9#133
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.9% 17.6% 12.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.4 14.8
.500 or above 98.3% 98.9% 93.3%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.1%
Conference Champion 54.9% 57.9% 31.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round16.9% 17.5% 11.9%
Second Round0.8% 0.9% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Detroit Mercy (Home) - 88.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 36 - 46 - 8
Quad 413 - 319 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 11   @ Michigan L 53-101 4%     0 - 1 -28.0 -14.9 -10.0
  Nov 09, 2024 89   @ Kansas St. L 64-77 18%     0 - 2 -3.9 -4.0 +0.0
  Nov 12, 2024 214   @ Valparaiso W 75-67 49%     1 - 2 +7.9 +3.7 +4.4
  Nov 16, 2024 313   Eastern Michigan W 71-63 85%     2 - 2 -3.4 -4.1 +1.2
  Nov 19, 2024 98   @ Minnesota L 47-58 22%     2 - 3 -3.2 -18.0 +14.0
  Nov 23, 2024 159   Kent St. L 52-68 58%     2 - 4 -18.5 -14.5 -5.1
  Nov 26, 2024 355   NJIT W 56-53 92%     3 - 4 -13.3 -16.7 +3.6
  Nov 29, 2024 259   Morehead St. L 69-71 77%     3 - 5 -10.2 -4.4 -5.9
  Dec 05, 2024 161   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 67-79 37%     3 - 6 0 - 1 -9.0 +1.3 -11.3
  Dec 07, 2024 333   @ Green Bay W 83-61 78%     4 - 6 1 - 1 +13.5 +5.8 +8.1
  Dec 19, 2024 178   Oakland W 92-75 62%     5 - 6 2 - 1 +13.4 +24.7 -9.9
  Dec 29, 2024 177   Wright St. W 78-64 62%     6 - 6 3 - 1 +10.5 +6.9 +4.7
  Jan 04, 2025 326   IU Indianapolis W 67-61 88%     7 - 6 4 - 1 -7.0 -3.0 -2.9
  Jan 08, 2025 216   @ Robert Morris W 80-69 50%     8 - 6 5 - 1 +10.6 +8.4 +2.3
  Jan 11, 2025 208   @ Youngstown St. W 80-72 47%     9 - 6 6 - 1 +8.4 +11.6 -3.1
  Jan 15, 2025 235   Northern Kentucky W 76-58 73%     10 - 6 7 - 1 +11.1 +9.6 +3.2
  Jan 19, 2025 326   @ IU Indianapolis W 73-62 75%     11 - 6 8 - 1 +3.5 +0.6 +3.9
  Jan 22, 2025 331   Detroit Mercy W 76-63 88%    
  Jan 25, 2025 333   Green Bay W 80-66 90%    
  Jan 30, 2025 145   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 74-79 33%    
  Feb 05, 2025 235   @ Northern Kentucky W 66-65 53%    
  Feb 08, 2025 161   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 74-72 59%    
  Feb 12, 2025 216   Robert Morris W 74-69 70%    
  Feb 16, 2025 208   Youngstown St. W 72-67 68%    
  Feb 21, 2025 331   @ Detroit Mercy W 73-66 75%    
  Feb 23, 2025 178   @ Oakland L 65-67 40%    
  Feb 27, 2025 177   @ Wright St. L 73-75 40%    
  Mar 01, 2025 145   Purdue Fort Wayne W 77-76 54%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.4 6.1 16.0 16.9 10.6 4.2 0.7 54.9 1st
2nd 0.2 4.4 10.5 6.2 0.9 0.0 22.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 6.9 2.9 0.2 11.6 3rd
4th 0.4 3.2 2.3 0.1 6.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 1.8 0.2 3.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.2 1.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 7.0 14.2 19.5 22.4 17.9 10.6 4.2 0.7 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7
18-2 100.0% 4.2    4.2
17-3 99.8% 10.6    10.3 0.3
16-4 94.7% 16.9    14.5 2.4 0.1
15-5 71.4% 16.0    8.3 6.4 1.3 0.0
14-6 31.1% 6.1    0.9 2.7 1.9 0.5 0.0
13-7 3.1% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 54.9% 54.9 38.8 11.9 3.4 0.7 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.7% 30.8% 30.8% 12.5 0.1 0.1 0.5
18-2 4.2% 28.6% 28.6% 13.5 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 3.0
17-3 10.6% 26.2% 26.2% 14.0 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.6 7.8
16-4 17.9% 21.6% 21.6% 14.3 0.0 0.4 2.1 1.3 0.1 14.0
15-5 22.4% 18.2% 18.2% 14.6 0.1 1.5 2.3 0.1 18.4
14-6 19.5% 14.1% 14.1% 14.9 0.0 0.5 1.8 0.4 16.8
13-7 14.2% 10.9% 10.9% 15.3 0.1 1.0 0.5 12.6
12-8 7.0% 6.1% 6.1% 15.5 0.2 0.2 6.6
11-9 2.7% 3.0% 3.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 2.6
10-10 0.8% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7
9-11 0.1% 0.1
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 16.9% 16.9% 0.0% 14.5 0.3 1.8 6.3 7.3 1.3 83.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.5 50.0 50.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%