Oakland
Horizon
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.8#178
Expected Predictive Rating-2.0#207
Pace58.4#360
Improvement+2.6#70

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#180
First Shot-2.2#233
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#59
Layup/Dunks+0.3#165
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#155
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#239
Freethrows-0.8#233
Improvement+2.1#69

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#204
First Shot+1.0#143
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#315
Layups/Dunks+5.3#32
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#352
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#306
Freethrows+2.7#27
Improvement+0.4#161
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.3% 14.6% 9.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.3
.500 or above 34.4% 47.1% 20.2%
.500 or above in Conference 92.3% 97.0% 87.0%
Conference Champion 6.9% 11.4% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.3% 2.2% 2.3%
First Round11.6% 14.0% 8.8%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Purdue Fort Wayne (Home) - 52.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 35 - 66 - 13
Quad 410 - 415 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 57   @ Boise St. L 43-87 11%     0 - 1 -31.5 -22.1 -12.5
  Nov 13, 2024 9   @ Illinois L 54-66 3%     0 - 2 +9.4 -7.1 +16.3
  Nov 16, 2024 6   @ Kansas L 57-78 3%     0 - 3 +1.3 +3.6 -4.7
  Nov 21, 2024 313   Eastern Michigan L 64-68 84%     0 - 4 -15.4 -7.6 -8.3
  Nov 30, 2024 194   @ Toledo W 85-52 42%     1 - 4 +34.2 +17.9 +19.7
  Dec 05, 2024 177   Wright St. W 66-64 60%     2 - 4 1 - 0 -1.5 -1.8 +0.5
  Dec 07, 2024 208   @ Youngstown St. L 50-66 45%     2 - 5 1 - 1 -15.6 -11.9 -6.1
  Dec 17, 2024 12   Michigan St. L 58-77 6%     2 - 6 -1.9 -0.2 -3.6
  Dec 19, 2024 173   @ Cleveland St. L 75-92 38%     2 - 7 1 - 2 -14.7 +10.1 -26.2
  Dec 22, 2024 136   Loyola Chicago W 72-71 40%     3 - 7 +2.7 +7.0 -4.2
  Dec 23, 2024 70   Oregon St. L 74-80 OT 20%     3 - 8 +1.9 +5.6 -3.9
  Dec 25, 2024 181   @ Hawaii L 70-73 OT 40%     3 - 9 -1.1 -0.7 -0.4
  Dec 30, 2024 46   @ Arkansas L 62-92 9%     3 - 10 -16.2 -3.8 -11.9
  Jan 02, 2025 161   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 65-49 56%     4 - 10 2 - 2 +13.5 +0.2 +15.6
  Jan 04, 2025 216   Robert Morris L 71-79 69%     4 - 11 2 - 3 -13.8 +2.7 -17.3
  Jan 09, 2025 177   @ Wright St. L 62-66 39%     4 - 12 2 - 4 -2.1 -5.5 +3.0
  Jan 11, 2025 235   @ Northern Kentucky W 68-53 52%     5 - 12 3 - 4 +13.6 +13.1 +4.0
  Jan 15, 2025 326   IU Indianapolis W 72-59 87%     6 - 12 4 - 4 +0.0 -2.3 +3.6
  Jan 18, 2025 331   @ Detroit Mercy W 65-59 75%     7 - 12 5 - 4 -1.9 +0.6 -1.5
  Jan 22, 2025 145   Purdue Fort Wayne W 72-71 53%    
  Jan 25, 2025 216   @ Robert Morris L 66-67 48%    
  Jan 30, 2025 333   Green Bay W 75-62 90%    
  Feb 01, 2025 235   Northern Kentucky W 65-59 72%    
  Feb 06, 2025 208   Youngstown St. W 67-63 66%    
  Feb 12, 2025 326   @ IU Indianapolis W 70-63 74%    
  Feb 16, 2025 331   Detroit Mercy W 72-59 89%    
  Feb 21, 2025 145   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 69-74 31%    
  Feb 23, 2025 173   Cleveland St. W 67-65 60%    
  Feb 27, 2025 161   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 67-71 35%    
  Mar 01, 2025 333   @ Green Bay W 73-65 76%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.8 3.0 0.8 6.9 1st
2nd 0.3 4.4 6.9 1.4 0.1 13.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.6 9.8 2.8 0.1 16.3 3rd
4th 0.1 2.5 10.8 4.7 0.2 18.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 8.5 7.5 0.5 18.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 5.4 6.7 1.0 0.0 14.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.8 4.5 1.4 9.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.6 0.7 0.0 3.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.9 5.4 12.3 19.2 23.1 19.7 12.6 4.5 0.9 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 91.1% 0.8    0.7 0.1
15-5 67.0% 3.0    1.3 1.4 0.3
14-6 22.4% 2.8    0.3 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.0
13-7 1.4% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.9% 6.9 2.3 2.8 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.9% 28.9% 28.9% 13.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6
15-5 4.5% 23.3% 23.3% 13.9 0.2 0.7 0.1 3.5
14-6 12.6% 19.6% 19.6% 14.6 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.1 10.1
13-7 19.7% 16.5% 16.5% 15.1 0.3 2.4 0.5 16.4
12-8 23.1% 10.6% 10.6% 15.5 0.0 1.2 1.2 20.7
11-9 19.2% 9.5% 9.5% 15.9 0.2 1.6 17.4
10-10 12.3% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 0.8 11.5
9-11 5.4% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 5.3
8-12 1.9% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.1 1.8
7-13 0.4% 0.4
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 12.3% 12.3% 0.0% 15.1 0.1 0.4 2.1 5.4 4.4 87.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 13.3 19.2 34.6 46.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%