Oakland
Horizon
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.5#166
Expected Predictive Rating-3.1#221
Pace59.1#358
Improvement+2.3#49

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#207
First Shot-2.3#242
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#128
Layup/Dunks+2.1#106
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#132
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#290
Freethrows-1.3#262
Improvement+1.4#72

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#143
First Shot+2.2#108
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#290
Layups/Dunks+5.3#41
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#349
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#298
Freethrows+3.6#12
Improvement+0.8#123
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.5% 20.5% 14.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 13.6 14.5
.500 or above 53.0% 78.7% 51.1%
.500 or above in Conference 86.1% 93.3% 85.5%
Conference Champion 16.6% 26.1% 15.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four1.3% 0.4% 1.3%
First Round14.0% 20.4% 13.5%
Second Round0.9% 1.7% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Michigan St. (Neutral) - 6.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 21 - 6
Quad 34 - 45 - 11
Quad 411 - 415 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 58   @ Boise St. L 43-87 12%     0 - 1 -31.7 -21.0 -13.8
  Nov 13, 2024 16   @ Illinois L 54-66 5%     0 - 2 +6.1 -9.0 +14.8
  Nov 16, 2024 10   @ Kansas L 57-78 4%     0 - 3 -0.6 +1.0 -4.0
  Nov 21, 2024 317   Eastern Michigan L 64-68 85%     0 - 4 -15.8 -7.4 -8.8
  Nov 30, 2024 206   @ Toledo W 85-52 45%     1 - 4 +33.7 +17.3 +19.8
  Dec 05, 2024 133   Wright St. W 66-64 54%     2 - 4 1 - 0 +0.5 -0.9 +1.7
  Dec 07, 2024 211   @ Youngstown St. L 50-66 46%     2 - 5 1 - 1 -15.4 -12.1 -5.8
  Dec 17, 2024 14   Michigan St. L 57-73 7%    
  Dec 19, 2024 241   @ Cleveland St. W 64-63 53%    
  Dec 22, 2024 104   Loyola Chicago L 62-67 31%    
  Dec 30, 2024 29   @ Arkansas L 60-76 6%    
  Jan 02, 2025 141   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 70-69 55%    
  Jan 04, 2025 259   Robert Morris W 68-60 77%    
  Jan 09, 2025 133   @ Wright St. L 66-71 32%    
  Jan 11, 2025 216   @ Northern Kentucky L 63-64 47%    
  Jan 15, 2025 353   IU Indianapolis W 73-58 92%    
  Jan 18, 2025 320   @ Detroit Mercy W 67-62 69%    
  Jan 22, 2025 152   Purdue Fort Wayne W 72-70 58%    
  Jan 25, 2025 259   @ Robert Morris W 65-63 57%    
  Jan 30, 2025 331   Green Bay W 76-63 88%    
  Feb 01, 2025 216   Northern Kentucky W 66-61 68%    
  Feb 06, 2025 211   Youngstown St. W 67-62 67%    
  Feb 12, 2025 353   @ IU Indianapolis W 70-61 80%    
  Feb 16, 2025 320   Detroit Mercy W 70-59 85%    
  Feb 21, 2025 152   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 69-73 37%    
  Feb 23, 2025 241   Cleveland St. W 67-60 72%    
  Feb 27, 2025 141   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 67-72 34%    
  Mar 01, 2025 331   @ Green Bay W 73-66 72%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.4 5.2 3.3 1.3 0.3 16.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.0 6.7 5.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 17.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.3 7.0 4.4 0.9 0.1 16.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.9 6.3 3.9 0.6 0.0 14.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.7 3.3 0.4 0.0 12.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.5 2.7 0.4 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.0 1.9 0.4 0.0 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 3.9 6.4 9.7 12.0 13.8 14.6 13.7 10.4 7.0 3.5 1.3 0.3 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
18-2 99.8% 1.3    1.3 0.1
17-3 93.8% 3.3    2.7 0.5 0.0
16-4 74.8% 5.2    3.4 1.6 0.2 0.0
15-5 42.4% 4.4    1.8 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-6 14.1% 1.9    0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 16.6% 16.6 9.8 4.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.3% 49.6% 49.6% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 1.3% 40.7% 40.7% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8
17-3 3.5% 34.9% 34.9% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 2.3
16-4 7.0% 29.6% 29.6% 13.6 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.9
15-5 10.4% 24.3% 24.3% 14.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.7 0.0 7.8
14-6 13.7% 20.3% 20.3% 14.4 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.2 10.9
13-7 14.6% 14.3% 14.3% 14.9 0.1 0.4 1.3 0.3 12.5
12-8 13.8% 10.2% 10.2% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.5 12.4
11-9 12.0% 8.3% 8.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 11.0
10-10 9.7% 4.7% 4.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 9.2
9-11 6.4% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.2 6.2
8-12 3.9% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 3.8
7-13 2.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.1
6-14 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.9
5-15 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.1 4.6 2.4 85.5 0.0%