Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Horizon
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.9 #248
Expected Predictive Rating -4.9 #234
Pace 70.4 #141
Improvement -1.8 #260

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #192 D+ C+ B D- D
Defense #291 D+ D+ D+ C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #302 1.08 #274 -3.9 #308
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #81 0.79 #131 +2.4 #69
Three Pointers 40% #201 0.96 #258 -1.7 #244
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #271 -3.2 #270
Freethrows 15.6 #285 67% #330 10.4 #319
Second Chance 33.2% #112 1.04 #181 0.35 #117
Turnovers 14.7% #73
Total Offense -1.0 #192

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #31 1.18 #217 -4.3 #321
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #213 0.79 #244 +0.1 #177
Three Pointers 36% #310 1.05 #223 +2.0 #114
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #246 -2.2 #247
Freethrows 18.1 #212 74% #254 13.3 #223
Second Chance 30.0% #151 1.17 #324 0.35 #260
Turnovers 15.3% #248
Total Defense -3.9 #291

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.9% #300 1.3% #287
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.5% #251 2.9% #232
Possession Length 16.5 #99 18.0 #296
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #81 0.22 #321
Improvement -1.4 #264 -0.4 #214

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 5.4% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 5.6% 11.6% 2.6%
.500 or above in Conference 37.4% 57.8% 27.2%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.5% 2.3%
First Four1.9% 2.2% 1.7%
First Round3.0% 4.7% 2.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Youngstown St. (Away) - 33.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 32 - 82 - 14
Quad 411 - 513 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 230 Hampton W 90 - 86 58% +6  1 - 0 -3 +5 D B+ A+ -8 F C A+
 Sat, Nov 8 215 @Wofford L 76 - 86 33% -12  1 - 1 -10 -5 F F A+ -5 B- F B-
 Mon, Nov 10 282 Arkansas Little Rock W 92 - 72 68% +7  2 - 1 +10 +15 B A+ B+ -4 C- F B
 Wed, Nov 12 37 @Indiana L 70 - 101 3% -13  2 - 2 -15 +3 A C+ F -17 F F F
 Fri, Nov 14 15 @Texas Tech L 63 - 80 2% -4  2 - 3 +4 +4 C A+ F -2 A+ F C
 Sat, Nov 22 103 @Wichita St. L 58 - 75 12% -1  2 - 4 -9 -9 F C+ D+ -1 C A+ D-
 Sat, Nov 29 64 @Akron L 81 - 105 7% -13  2 - 5 -12 +2 F A- B -12 F A A+
 Sat, Dec 6 200 Robert Morris W 74 - 72 53% -1  3 - 5 1 - 0 -4 -4 D+ F A+ +1 B+ A+ F
 Sun, Dec 14 188 Indiana St. L 68 - 70 50% -1  3 - 6 -7 -2 F A+ A+ -5 F F A+
 Fri, Dec 19 170 South Dakota St. W 88 - 87 35% +1  4 - 6 +0 +16 A A B- -16 F F F
 Sun, Dec 21 316 @Cleveland St. W 81 - 71 56% -0  5 - 6 2 - 0 +4 +8 D C+ A+ -4 A D- F
 Mon, Dec 29 212 Purdue Fort Wayne W 77 - 55 55% +19  6 - 6 3 - 0 +16 +4 F A+ F +13 A+ A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 30 35 @Wisconsin L 60 - 80 3% -14  6 - 7 -3 -10 F C- F +8 B+ A+ C
 Thu, Jan 1 154 @Wright St. L 70 - 76 22% -7  6 - 8 3 - 1 -3 +3 D C- A+ -6 A D- F
 Mon, Jan 5 255 @Green Bay L 76 - 79 39% -8  6 - 9 3 - 2 -5 +7 A+ F F -12 F B F
 Fri, Jan 9 178 Northern Kentucky L 67 - 85 48% -13  6 - 10 3 - 3 -22 -2 F C A+ -22 C+ F F
 Sun, Jan 11 337 IU Indianapolis W 95 - 83 81% -0  7 - 10 4 - 3 -2 +14 A+ A+ B- -16 D- C F
 Thu, Jan 15 139 Oakland L 60 - 73 38% -9  7 - 11 4 - 4 -15 -21 F C D- +8 A+ F A+
 Sun, Jan 18 212 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 82 - 100 33% -9  7 - 12 4 - 5 -18 +5 B- F B- -23 F F F
 Thu, Jan 22 200 @Robert Morris L 76 - 88 30% -7  7 - 13 4 - 6 -12 +2 B F B- -13 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 213 @Youngstown St. L 74 - 79 33%
 Fri, Jan 30 154 Wright St. L 75 - 77 42%
 Sun, Feb 1 316 Cleveland St. W 85 - 77 77%
 Wed, Feb 4 286 Detroit Mercy W 81 - 76 69%
 Sat, Feb 7 178 @Northern Kentucky L 75 - 82 27%
 Sun, Feb 15 255 Green Bay W 76 - 73 62%
 Fri, Feb 20 286 @Detroit Mercy L 78 - 79 48%
 Sun, Feb 22 139 @Oakland L 79 - 88 20%
 Wed, Feb 25 213 Youngstown St. W 77 - 76 55%
 Sat, Feb 28 337 @IU Indianapolis W 87 - 84 63%
Totals 12 - 18 9 - 11 -5 -1 D+ C+ B -4 D+ D+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 1.7 0.6 0.0 3.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.0 2.1 0.1 7.1 4th
5th 0.7 5.4 5.0 0.5 11.6 5th
6th 0.3 5.7 8.8 2.0 0.1 16.9 6th
7th 0.3 5.0 11.7 4.0 0.2 21.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 3.5 10.7 4.7 0.2 19.4 8th
9th 0.4 3.1 7.3 3.8 0.3 14.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 2.1 1.3 0.1 4.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
Total 0.2 1.5 5.5 12.4 19.9 23.1 19.3 12.0 4.8 1.2 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 25.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 7.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.1% 18.5% 18.5% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 1.2% 14.8% 14.8% 14.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0
12-8 4.8% 10.2% 10.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 4.3
11-9 12.0% 7.5% 7.5% 15.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 11.1
10-10 19.3% 4.3% 4.3% 15.9 0.0 0.8 18.5
9-11 23.1% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.7 22.4
8-12 19.9% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.4 19.6
7-13 12.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 12.2
6-14 5.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 5.5
5-15 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.5
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 15.7 96.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%