Stony Brook
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-9.2#320
Expected Predictive Rating-10.5#322
Pace64.6#278
Improvement+1.2#130

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#280
First Shot-5.4#321
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#99
Layup/Dunks-3.8#305
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#133
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#263
Freethrows+0.4#151
Improvement-0.9#238

Defense
Total Defense-5.3#330
First Shot-3.7#291
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#310
Layups/Dunks-4.4#327
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#42
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#285
Freethrows+1.5#81
Improvement+2.1#69
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.3% 0.7% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 43.9% 32.2% 53.9%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Campbell (Home) - 46.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 102 - 13
Quad 45 - 117 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 18   @ Marquette L 62-102 1%     0 - 1 -21.5 -0.9 -20.9
  Nov 07, 2024 230   @ Central Michigan W 73-72 23%     1 - 1 -0.4 +3.1 -3.5
  Nov 11, 2024 77   @ George Mason L 56-94 5%     1 - 2 -28.0 -8.3 -20.1
  Nov 20, 2024 89   Yale L 64-86 11%     1 - 3 -18.1 -8.7 -9.3
  Nov 23, 2024 203   @ Columbia L 63-82 18%     1 - 4 -18.5 -10.6 -8.5
  Nov 27, 2024 206   @ Brown L 54-77 18%     1 - 5 -22.7 -15.5 -8.6
  Dec 01, 2024 184   Norfolk St. L 66-77 29%     1 - 6 -14.5 -3.8 -11.7
  Dec 07, 2024 276   Air Force L 61-69 39%     1 - 7 -14.5 -14.0 -0.5
  Dec 14, 2024 294   @ Rider W 72-55 34%     2 - 7 +12.0 +10.4 +4.8
  Dec 17, 2024 217   Marist L 66-68 37%     2 - 8 -7.8 +8.0 -16.3
  Dec 21, 2024 201   Maine W 74-72 33%     3 - 8 -2.6 +7.7 -10.1
  Dec 29, 2024 258   @ Albany L 70-77 27%     3 - 9 -10.0 -2.2 -8.2
  Jan 02, 2025 268   @ Monmouth L 56-78 29%     3 - 10 0 - 1 -25.4 -9.4 -19.3
  Jan 04, 2025 193   William & Mary L 76-83 31%     3 - 11 0 - 2 -11.2 +2.8 -14.4
  Jan 09, 2025 187   Drexel L 51-67 30%     3 - 12 0 - 3 -19.8 -8.3 -15.8
  Jan 11, 2025 198   Northeastern L 66-70 32%     3 - 13 0 - 4 -8.5 -7.1 -1.5
  Jan 16, 2025 195   @ Delaware L 74-84 17%     3 - 14 0 - 5 -9.0 -1.4 -7.6
  Jan 18, 2025 175   @ Towson L 49-53 15%     3 - 15 0 - 6 -2.1 -12.1 +9.3
  Jan 23, 2025 250   Campbell L 67-69 46%    
  Jan 25, 2025 322   N.C. A&T W 77-74 61%    
  Jan 30, 2025 124   @ College of Charleston L 68-82 9%    
  Feb 01, 2025 134   @ UNC Wilmington L 63-77 9%    
  Feb 06, 2025 175   Towson L 61-67 30%    
  Feb 08, 2025 176   @ Hofstra L 58-69 14%    
  Feb 13, 2025 268   Monmouth L 69-70 50%    
  Feb 15, 2025 198   @ Northeastern L 66-76 17%    
  Feb 20, 2025 254   @ Hampton L 65-71 26%    
  Feb 22, 2025 322   @ N.C. A&T L 74-76 40%    
  Feb 27, 2025 176   Hofstra L 60-66 31%    
  Mar 01, 2025 158   Elon L 65-72 27%    
Projected Record 7 - 23 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 1.4 0.2 2.7 10th
11th 0.1 1.4 3.1 1.1 0.0 5.6 11th
12th 0.3 3.1 6.2 3.1 0.4 13.1 12th
13th 0.5 5.9 15.4 16.6 7.6 1.1 0.0 47.1 13th
14th 2.1 7.9 10.6 6.9 1.6 0.1 29.3 14th
Total 2.1 8.4 16.5 22.6 21.4 15.4 8.3 3.7 1.2 0.3 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.1% 0.1
9-9 0.3% 0.3
8-10 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2
7-11 3.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.7
6-12 8.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.3
5-13 15.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.4
4-14 21.4% 21.4
3-15 22.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 22.6
2-16 16.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.5
1-17 8.4% 8.4
0-18 2.1% 2.1
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.7%