IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Stony Brook
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-7.6	#302
Expected Predictive Rating	-0.4	#197

Pace	67.9	#227
Improvement	-1.7	#325

Offense
Total Offense	-3.1	#264

First Shot	-2.9	#261
After Offensive Rebound	-0.1	#191

Layup/Dunks	+0.1	#180
2 Pt Jumpshots	-0.6	#208
3 Pt Jumpshots	-1.8	#242
Freethrows	-0.6	#221

Improvement	-2.2	#356

Defense
Total Defense	-4.5	#319

First Shot	-0.6	#191
After Offensive Rebounds	-4.0	#341

Layups/Dunks	-6.6	#345
2 Pt Jumpshots	+1.5	#92
3 Pt Jumpshots	-0.1	#191
Freethrows	+4.7	#8

Improvement	+0.4	#127

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.4%	0.6%	0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.9	14.3	15.1

.500 or above	7.9%	17.7%	5.6%
.500 or above in Conference	15.9%	23.7%	14.1%
Conference Champion	0.4%	0.7%	0.3%
Last Place in Conference	26.1%	18.0%	28.0%

First Four	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
First Round	0.4%	0.6%	0.3%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Columbia (Away) - 19.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 5
Quad 3	3 - 9	3 - 13
Quad 4	7 - 8	10 - 21

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	14	@ Marquette	L	62-102	2%	0 - 1			-22.3	-1.3	-21.2
Nov 07, 2024	203	@ Central Michigan	W	73-72	21%	1 - 1			+1.9	+4.7	-2.8
Nov 11, 2024	96	@ George Mason	L	56-94	7%	1 - 2			-29.5	-11.1	-18.7
Nov 20, 2024	100	Yale	L	64-86	18%	1 - 3			-20.0	-9.5	-10.3
Nov 23, 2024	187	@ Columbia	L	72-81	19%
Nov 27, 2024	222	@ Brown	L	67-75	24%
Dec 01, 2024	192	Norfolk St.	L	69-72	38%
Dec 07, 2024	284	Air Force	L	67-68	45%
Dec 14, 2024	239	@ Rider	L	68-75	27%
Dec 17, 2024	233	Marist	L	69-70	46%
Dec 21, 2024	235	Maine	L	66-67	46%
Dec 29, 2024	243	@ Albany	L	74-80	29%
Jan 02, 2025	278	@ Monmouth	L	71-76	34%
Jan 04, 2025	210	William & Mary	L	77-79	42%
Jan 09, 2025	145	Drexel	L	64-70	32%
Jan 11, 2025	155	Northeastern	L	70-75	34%
Jan 16, 2025	216	@ Delaware	L	70-78	25%
Jan 18, 2025	126	@ Towson	L	60-73	13%
Jan 23, 2025	256	Campbell	W	71-70	51%
Jan 25, 2025	289	N.C. A&T	W	78-76	57%
Jan 30, 2025	111	@ College of Charleston	L	69-83	10%
Feb 01, 2025	150	@ UNC Wilmington	L	68-79	17%
Feb 06, 2025	126	Towson	L	63-70	28%
Feb 08, 2025	133	@ Hofstra	L	63-75	14%
Feb 13, 2025	278	Monmouth	W	74-73	55%
Feb 15, 2025	155	@ Northeastern	L	67-78	18%
Feb 20, 2025	308	@ Hampton	L	67-69	42%
Feb 22, 2025	289	@ N.C. A&T	L	75-79	35%
Feb 27, 2025	133	Hofstra	L	66-72	29%
Mar 01, 2025	205	Elon	L	72-74	42%
Projected Record						10 - 20	6 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.4	1st
2nd												0.0	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0					0.8	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.4	0.6	0.2	0.0						1.3	3rd
4th										0.0	0.4	0.9	0.5	0.1							1.8	4th
5th										0.5	1.4	1.0	0.1								3.1	5th
6th									0.3	1.7	1.6	0.3									3.9	6th
7th								0.2	1.5	2.5	0.6	0.0									4.8	7th
8th							0.1	1.6	3.7	1.5	0.1										6.9	8th
9th						0.1	0.9	4.0	2.9	0.3											8.1	9th
10th					0.1	0.7	4.1	3.9	0.9	0.0											9.6	10th
11th				0.0	0.7	3.6	5.6	2.2	0.1												12.1	11th
12th			0.1	0.9	4.2	6.3	2.8	0.2													14.5	12th
13th		0.1	1.4	4.3	6.0	3.2	0.3	0.0													15.3	13th
14th	0.9	3.2	5.6	4.7	2.5	0.4	0.0														17.3	14th

Total	0.9	3.3	7.1	9.9	13.4	14.3	13.8	12.1	9.3	6.5	4.1	2.6	1.6	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0				Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
16-2	100.0%	0.0		0.0
15-3	62.2%	0.1		0.0	0.0
14-4	50.9%	0.1		0.1	0.1		0.0
13-5	13.9%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0
12-6	2.9%	0.0				0.0		0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.4%	0.4		0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1	0.0%																							0.0
16-2	0.0%																		0.0
15-3	0.1%		27.0%	27.0%		13.0														0.0				0.1
14-4	0.3%		4.3%	4.3%		14.0															0.0			0.3
13-5	0.7%		4.4%	4.4%		14.0															0.0			0.7
12-6	1.6%		5.2%	5.2%		14.7															0.0	0.1		1.5
11-7	2.6%		2.6%	2.6%		15.3															0.0	0.0	0.0	2.5
10-8	4.1%		1.4%	1.4%		14.8															0.0	0.0		4.0
9-9	6.5%		0.7%	0.7%		15.3															0.0	0.0	0.0	6.5
8-10	9.3%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	9.2
7-11	12.1%																							12.1
6-12	13.8%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	13.8
5-13	14.3%																							14.3
4-14	13.4%																							13.4
3-15	9.9%																							9.9
2-16	7.1%																							7.1
1-17	3.3%																							3.3
0-18	0.9%																							0.9

Total	100%		0.4%	0.4%	0.0%	14.9													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	99.6		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.2%