Stony Brook
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.9#306
Expected Predictive Rating-6.6#279
Pace67.9#213
Improvement+3.3#31

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#260
First Shot-3.5#280
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#153
Layup/Dunks-2.6#282
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#176
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#216
Freethrows+0.4#153
Improvement+1.9#63

Defense
Total Defense-4.9#326
First Shot-4.0#307
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#255
Layups/Dunks-5.3#345
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#25
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#311
Freethrows+2.4#42
Improvement+1.5#85
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 2.1% 5.1% 1.1%
.500 or above in Conference 15.7% 21.3% 13.9%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 25.1% 19.5% 26.9%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Albany (Away) - 24.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 92 - 13
Quad 47 - 910 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 17   @ Marquette L 62-102 2%     0 - 1 -21.8 -2.0 -20.0
  Nov 07, 2024 240   @ Central Michigan W 73-72 26%     1 - 1 -0.3 +3.5 -3.8
  Nov 11, 2024 89   @ George Mason L 56-94 6%     1 - 2 -28.7 -9.4 -19.7
  Nov 20, 2024 99   Yale L 64-86 18%     1 - 3 -20.1 -9.8 -10.1
  Nov 23, 2024 176   @ Columbia L 63-82 17%     1 - 4 -16.9 -9.0 -8.6
  Nov 27, 2024 160   @ Brown L 54-77 16%     1 - 5 -20.2 -13.9 -7.7
  Dec 01, 2024 184   Norfolk St. L 66-77 36%     1 - 6 -15.2 -4.1 -12.0
  Dec 07, 2024 270   Air Force L 61-69 42%     1 - 7 -13.9 -14.1 +0.2
  Dec 14, 2024 299   @ Rider W 72-55 37%     2 - 7 +12.5 +10.4 +5.3
  Dec 17, 2024 230   Marist L 66-68 45%     2 - 8 -8.6 +5.4 -14.4
  Dec 21, 2024 216   Maine W 74-72 42%     3 - 8 -3.9 +6.3 -10.0
  Dec 29, 2024 234   @ Albany L 73-80 25%    
  Jan 02, 2025 261   @ Monmouth L 70-76 30%    
  Jan 04, 2025 219   William & Mary L 80-82 43%    
  Jan 09, 2025 153   Drexel L 66-71 31%    
  Jan 11, 2025 165   Northeastern L 69-74 33%    
  Jan 16, 2025 215   @ Delaware L 73-81 23%    
  Jan 18, 2025 214   @ Towson L 61-69 22%    
  Jan 23, 2025 297   Campbell W 71-69 58%    
  Jan 25, 2025 324   N.C. A&T W 80-76 65%    
  Jan 30, 2025 120   @ College of Charleston L 69-83 11%    
  Feb 01, 2025 134   @ UNC Wilmington L 67-80 13%    
  Feb 06, 2025 214   Towson L 64-66 42%    
  Feb 08, 2025 154   @ Hofstra L 62-73 16%    
  Feb 13, 2025 261   Monmouth W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 15, 2025 165   @ Northeastern L 66-77 17%    
  Feb 20, 2025 248   @ Hampton L 67-73 29%    
  Feb 22, 2025 324   @ N.C. A&T L 77-79 44%    
  Feb 27, 2025 154   Hofstra L 65-70 33%    
  Mar 01, 2025 180   Elon L 70-74 36%    
Projected Record 9 - 21 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 1.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.6 0.0 2.7 5th
6th 0.3 2.0 1.5 0.2 3.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 2.9 0.6 0.0 5.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 3.8 1.5 0.1 6.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.9 3.5 0.3 0.0 8.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.6 5.1 1.2 0.0 10.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.9 6.2 2.8 0.2 12.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 2.8 6.8 4.2 0.5 0.0 14.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 3.4 6.5 4.6 0.9 0.1 16.1 13th
14th 0.4 1.8 4.3 5.2 3.2 0.7 0.0 15.6 14th
Total 0.4 1.8 4.9 8.9 12.9 15.5 15.7 13.6 10.6 7.3 4.3 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 76.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 46.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
13-5 16.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 6.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 11.5% 11.5% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.2% 11.0% 11.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.4% 6.4% 6.4% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-6 1.1% 5.4% 5.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.0
11-7 2.4% 3.9% 3.9% 15.6 0.0 0.1 2.3
10-8 4.3% 1.7% 1.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.3
9-9 7.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 7.2
8-10 10.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 10.5
7-11 13.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.5
6-12 15.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.7
5-13 15.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.5
4-14 12.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.9
3-15 8.9% 8.9
2-16 4.9% 4.9
1-17 1.8% 1.8
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%