College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.3#126
Expected Predictive Rating+6.8#81
Pace78.1#15
Improvement-0.8#223

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#152
First Shot+3.4#85
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#320
Layup/Dunks-0.7#210
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#128
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#121
Freethrows+1.6#84
Improvement-0.5#212

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#130
First Shot+0.6#158
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#109
Layups/Dunks-0.9#209
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#195
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#148
Freethrows+0.5#146
Improvement-0.3#201
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.0% 25.4% 19.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 13.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.2% 99.7% 98.3%
Conference Champion 44.7% 56.1% 25.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round23.0% 25.4% 19.0%
Second Round1.9% 2.2% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Wilmington (Home) - 63.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 39 - 411 - 7
Quad 413 - 223 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 190   Southern Illinois W 90-80 64%     1 - 0 +8.7 +8.5 -0.8
  Nov 08, 2024 154   South Florida W 86-71 67%     2 - 0 +12.9 -0.2 +11.0
  Nov 15, 2024 108   Florida Atlantic W 119-116 2OT 56%     3 - 0 +3.7 +15.3 -12.3
  Nov 17, 2024 91   Liberty L 47-68 46%     3 - 1 -17.6 -19.0 -0.1
  Nov 20, 2024 352   @ The Citadel W 76-61 88%     4 - 1 +4.8 +3.1 +2.3
  Nov 24, 2024 109   @ Rhode Island L 53-91 36%     4 - 2 -31.8 -19.8 -9.7
  Nov 27, 2024 234   Northern Kentucky W 79-64 81%     5 - 2 +8.1 +7.6 +0.9
  Dec 10, 2024 90   @ Saint Joseph's W 78-75 26%     6 - 2 +12.0 +5.4 +6.4
  Dec 16, 2024 130   Wofford W 77-67 62%     7 - 2 +9.2 +5.4 +4.3
  Dec 22, 2024 72   Oregon St. L 65-74 30%     7 - 3 -1.2 -7.1 +6.1
  Dec 23, 2024 136   Loyola Chicago W 77-68 53%     8 - 3 +10.7 -1.5 +11.4
  Dec 25, 2024 224   Charlotte W 84-81 72%     9 - 3 -0.7 +4.4 -5.3
  Jan 02, 2025 254   Hampton W 94-67 84%     10 - 3 1 - 0 +18.9 +9.2 +7.2
  Jan 04, 2025 174   Towson W 77-69 71%     11 - 3 2 - 0 +4.6 +5.7 -0.9
  Jan 09, 2025 175   @ Hofstra W 67-61 51%     12 - 3 3 - 0 +8.1 -0.4 +8.3
  Jan 11, 2025 268   @ Monmouth L 73-84 71%     12 - 4 3 - 1 -14.3 -1.5 -12.7
  Jan 16, 2025 250   @ Campbell W 67-61 67%     13 - 4 4 - 1 +3.7 -4.2 +7.9
  Jan 18, 2025 202   Northeastern W 87-85 75%     14 - 4 5 - 1 -2.6 +9.9 -12.5
  Jan 23, 2025 135   UNC Wilmington W 77-74 63%    
  Jan 25, 2025 158   @ Elon L 74-75 47%    
  Jan 30, 2025 320   Stony Brook W 82-68 91%    
  Feb 01, 2025 194   @ William & Mary W 85-84 53%    
  Feb 06, 2025 322   N.C. A&T W 89-75 91%    
  Feb 08, 2025 158   Elon W 77-72 68%    
  Feb 13, 2025 135   @ UNC Wilmington L 75-77 41%    
  Feb 15, 2025 322   @ N.C. A&T W 86-77 80%    
  Feb 20, 2025 202   @ Northeastern W 78-76 55%    
  Feb 22, 2025 186   @ Drexel W 71-70 53%    
  Feb 27, 2025 195   Delaware W 87-80 73%    
  Mar 01, 2025 250   Campbell W 78-68 83%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.3 8.7 15.3 12.7 5.5 1.2 44.7 1st
2nd 0.4 5.9 9.8 4.5 0.6 0.1 21.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.4 7.5 3.0 0.3 13.2 3rd
4th 0.5 4.4 3.3 0.3 8.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 3.2 0.5 0.0 5.4 5th
6th 0.3 2.3 0.8 0.0 3.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 0.9 0.0 1.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 1.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.0 5.5 11.2 18.5 21.8 20.0 13.4 5.6 1.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2
16-2 98.8% 5.5    5.3 0.3
15-3 95.2% 12.7    10.7 1.9 0.1
14-4 76.2% 15.3    9.0 5.4 0.9 0.1
13-5 39.8% 8.7    2.0 3.7 2.4 0.6 0.0
12-6 7.1% 1.3    0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 44.7% 44.7 28.2 11.5 3.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 1.2% 41.5% 41.5% 11.8 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.7
16-2 5.6% 37.1% 37.1% 12.6 0.9 1.0 0.2 3.5
15-3 13.4% 31.2% 31.2% 13.0 0.0 0.9 2.3 0.9 0.1 9.2
14-4 20.0% 27.5% 27.5% 13.4 0.5 2.7 2.2 0.2 14.5
13-5 21.8% 23.3% 23.3% 13.7 0.1 1.6 2.9 0.5 0.0 16.7
12-6 18.5% 20.3% 20.3% 14.1 0.0 0.6 2.3 0.8 0.0 14.8
11-7 11.2% 12.2% 12.2% 14.2 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 9.9
10-8 5.5% 8.4% 8.4% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 5.0
9-9 2.0% 4.0% 4.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 1.9
8-10 0.6% 4.8% 4.8% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.6
7-11 0.2% 0.0 0.2
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 23.0% 23.0% 0.0% 13.5 0.2 2.8 8.4 9.4 2.2 0.1 77.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 11.8 24.5 69.4 4.1 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%