College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.3#116
Expected Predictive Rating+8.5#65
Pace76.9#34
Improvement-2.8#360

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#101
First Shot+1.5#128
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#107
Layup/Dunks-4.7#313
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#82
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#130
Freethrows+2.8#59
Improvement-1.8#353

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#151
First Shot-1.6#232
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#59
Layups/Dunks-1.4#224
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#202
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#149
Freethrows-1.3#252
Improvement-1.0#311
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.1% 22.6% 15.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.6 12.5 13.0
.500 or above 92.2% 94.7% 83.2%
.500 or above in Conference 91.0% 92.4% 85.9%
Conference Champion 29.2% 31.5% 20.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 0.6%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round21.1% 22.5% 15.5%
Second Round3.5% 3.8% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.9% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: The Citadel (Away) - 78.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 22 - 32 - 3
Quad 37 - 49 - 8
Quad 411 - 220 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 132   Southern Illinois W 90-80 56%     1 - 0 +11.8 +10.2 +0.6
  Nov 08, 2024 121   South Florida W 86-71 63%     2 - 0 +14.9 +2.2 +10.7
  Nov 15, 2024 75   Florida Atlantic W 119-116 2OT 45%     3 - 0 +7.6 +16.1 -9.3
  Nov 17, 2024 81   Liberty L 47-68 47%     3 - 1 -16.9 -18.4 -0.1
  Nov 20, 2024 309   @ The Citadel W 77-69 79%    
  Nov 24, 2024 117   @ Rhode Island L 80-83 39%    
  Nov 27, 2024 201   Northern Kentucky W 78-70 78%    
  Dec 10, 2024 100   @ Saint Joseph's L 75-80 33%    
  Dec 16, 2024 204   Wofford W 79-70 78%    
  Dec 22, 2024 98   Oregon St. L 72-74 43%    
  Jan 02, 2025 310   Hampton W 80-65 91%    
  Jan 04, 2025 134   Towson W 73-68 66%    
  Jan 09, 2025 131   @ Hofstra L 73-75 44%    
  Jan 11, 2025 261   @ Monmouth W 81-76 69%    
  Jan 16, 2025 257   @ Campbell W 77-72 67%    
  Jan 18, 2025 148   Northeastern W 80-74 69%    
  Jan 23, 2025 150   UNC Wilmington W 82-76 70%    
  Jan 25, 2025 263   @ Elon W 82-76 68%    
  Jan 30, 2025 285   Stony Brook W 84-71 86%    
  Feb 01, 2025 208   @ William & Mary W 85-82 59%    
  Feb 06, 2025 272   N.C. A&T W 87-75 85%    
  Feb 08, 2025 263   Elon W 85-73 84%    
  Feb 13, 2025 150   @ UNC Wilmington L 79-80 50%    
  Feb 15, 2025 272   @ N.C. A&T W 84-78 70%    
  Feb 20, 2025 148   @ Northeastern L 76-77 49%    
  Feb 22, 2025 144   @ Drexel L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 27, 2025 213   Delaware W 84-75 78%    
  Mar 01, 2025 257   Campbell W 80-69 83%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.4 6.3 8.6 7.0 3.6 1.0 29.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.6 5.9 2.5 0.4 0.0 18.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 5.4 4.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 13.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 4.4 3.9 0.9 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.2 3.4 0.9 0.1 8.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 3.3 1.1 0.1 6.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 4.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.5 4.2 6.3 9.1 11.5 13.3 14.2 13.5 11.3 7.4 3.6 1.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
17-1 99.7% 3.6    3.4 0.2
16-2 94.4% 7.0    6.0 1.0 0.0
15-3 76.8% 8.6    5.5 2.8 0.4 0.0
14-4 46.8% 6.3    2.7 2.6 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 16.7% 2.4    0.5 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.2% 29.2 19.0 7.5 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.0% 67.6% 57.8% 9.8% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 23.3%
17-1 3.6% 48.8% 47.1% 1.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 1.8 3.3%
16-2 7.4% 40.9% 40.6% 0.3% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.8 0.6 0.0 4.4 0.5%
15-3 11.3% 34.3% 34.2% 0.1% 12.4 0.2 2.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 7.4 0.1%
14-4 13.5% 28.2% 28.2% 12.7 0.1 1.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 9.7
13-5 14.2% 22.8% 22.8% 13.0 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 11.0
12-6 13.3% 16.9% 16.9% 13.3 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 11.0
11-7 11.5% 11.9% 11.9% 13.7 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 10.1
10-8 9.1% 7.3% 7.3% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 8.4
9-9 6.3% 4.6% 4.6% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.0
8-10 4.2% 3.2% 3.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.1
7-11 2.5% 2.3% 2.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4
6-12 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.2
5-13 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 21.1% 20.9% 0.2% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.8 7.7 6.9 3.3 0.8 0.1 78.9 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 5.8 4.5 2.3 4.5 15.9 20.5 22.7 9.1 9.1 2.3 4.5 4.5