Norfolk St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.2#181
Expected Predictive Rating+0.9#151
Pace66.3#229
Improvement-1.0#237

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#163
First Shot+1.3#129
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#246
Layup/Dunks+2.8#86
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#103
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.8#341
Freethrows+3.1#29
Improvement-0.6#214

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#220
First Shot+0.8#151
After Offensive Rebounds-2.4#337
Layups/Dunks+3.8#52
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#67
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#304
Freethrows-1.2#267
Improvement-0.4#204
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 44.8% 45.3% 39.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 93.4% 95.3% 75.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.9% 0.7% 2.8%
First Round44.3% 44.9% 37.9%
Second Round1.1% 1.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coppin St. (Away) - 90.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 24 - 6
Quad 417 - 421 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 138   James Madison W 83-69 51%     1 - 0 +12.7 +9.1 +3.8
  Nov 12, 2024 216   @ William & Mary L 73-84 47%     1 - 1 -11.4 -3.9 -7.2
  Nov 16, 2024 250   @ Hampton W 67-58 55%     2 - 1 +6.7 +3.3 +4.6
  Nov 20, 2024 88   @ Stanford L 63-70 17%     2 - 2 +1.9 +0.2 +1.0
  Nov 22, 2024 89   @ Grand Canyon L 73-91 18%     2 - 3 -9.6 +6.0 -15.4
  Nov 25, 2024 222   @ UC Davis W 76-55 48%     3 - 3 +20.3 +8.1 +12.3
  Dec 01, 2024 320   @ Stony Brook W 77-66 71%     4 - 3 +4.1 +5.3 -0.3
  Dec 09, 2024 227   Hofstra L 67-80 68%     4 - 4 -19.1 +0.9 -21.1
  Dec 11, 2024 24   @ Baylor L 69-94 5%     4 - 5 -7.1 +2.7 -9.8
  Dec 15, 2024 241   @ Northern Kentucky L 62-71 53%     4 - 6 -10.9 -7.0 -4.4
  Dec 19, 2024 311   Alabama St. W 71-54 77%     5 - 6 +8.3 -1.9 +11.2
  Dec 20, 2024 327   Grambling St. W 76-70 80%     6 - 6 -4.1 +8.8 -12.3
  Dec 29, 2024 96   @ High Point W 77-74 20%     7 - 6 +10.6 +11.9 -0.9
  Dec 31, 2024 5   @ Tennessee L 52-67 2%     7 - 7 +7.5 +1.7 +3.4
  Jan 04, 2025 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 81-59 96%     8 - 7 1 - 0 +1.0 +2.4 -0.5
  Jan 06, 2025 303   @ Delaware St. W 73-64 66%     9 - 7 2 - 0 +3.5 -5.8 +8.8
  Jan 11, 2025 362   Coppin St. W 92-69 96%     10 - 7 3 - 0 +2.0 +10.9 -9.5
  Jan 13, 2025 330   @ Morgan St. L 74-78 74%     10 - 8 3 - 1 -11.9 -3.0 -9.0
  Jan 25, 2025 305   Howard W 92-75 82%     11 - 8 4 - 1 +6.1 +8.5 -2.8
  Feb 01, 2025 210   South Carolina St. W 67-65 OT 65%     12 - 8 5 - 1 -3.1 -9.3 +6.1
  Feb 03, 2025 310   NC Central W 81-78 83%     13 - 8 6 - 1 -8.2 +9.3 -17.1
  Feb 15, 2025 361   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 75-63 91%     14 - 8 7 - 1 -3.9 +1.5 -4.4
  Feb 17, 2025 303   Delaware St. W 96-84 81%     15 - 8 8 - 1 +1.4 +4.2 -4.6
  Feb 22, 2025 362   @ Coppin St. W 76-61 91%    
  Feb 24, 2025 330   Morgan St. W 85-73 88%    
  Mar 01, 2025 210   @ South Carolina St. L 71-72 44%    
  Mar 03, 2025 310   @ NC Central W 76-71 65%    
  Mar 06, 2025 305   @ Howard W 80-75 64%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 12 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 8.5 31.1 37.8 15.9 93.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 4.4 5.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 0.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
Total 0.2 2.1 12.9 31.1 37.8 15.9 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1 100.0% 15.9    15.9
12-2 100.0% 37.8    37.8
11-3 100.0% 31.1    21.7 9.4
10-4 65.9% 8.5    1.7 4.8 2.0 0.0
9-5 5.2% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7
Total 93.4% 93.4 77.2 14.2 2.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1 15.9% 53.6% 53.6% 13.7 0.0 0.2 2.7 4.5 1.1 7.4
12-2 37.8% 47.7% 47.7% 14.7 0.4 6.0 10.6 1.0 19.8
11-3 31.1% 42.5% 42.5% 15.1 0.0 1.7 8.7 2.7 17.9
10-4 12.9% 34.8% 34.8% 15.5 0.0 0.2 2.0 2.3 8.4
9-5 2.1% 22.9% 22.9% 15.8 0.1 0.4 1.6
8-6 0.2% 0.0 0.2
7-7
6-8
5-9
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 44.8% 44.8% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.2 3.2 12.4 22.5 6.4 55.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.5% 100.0% 13.7 0.1 2.8 31.5 53.2 12.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.5%