Norfolk St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#181
Expected Predictive Rating+0.4#164
Pace65.5#267
Improvement-3.3#341

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#158
First Shot+1.2#141
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#246
Layup/Dunks+1.9#113
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#126
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#336
Freethrows+3.9#19
Improvement-1.6#303

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#211
First Shot+0.2#167
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#297
Layups/Dunks+2.4#88
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#70
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#276
Freethrows-1.3#274
Improvement-1.7#311
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 42.3% 46.5% 40.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 94.7% 98.2% 93.2%
.500 or above in Conference 98.3% 98.8% 98.1%
Conference Champion 59.1% 64.0% 56.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four4.6% 2.4% 5.5%
First Round40.2% 45.5% 37.9%
Second Round1.6% 2.3% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: High Point (Away) - 30.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 33 - 7
Quad 416 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 115   James Madison W 83-69 45%     1 - 0 +14.2 +10.0 +4.4
  Nov 12, 2024 222   @ William & Mary L 73-84 46%     1 - 1 -11.0 -6.0 -4.7
  Nov 16, 2024 266   @ Hampton W 67-58 56%     2 - 1 +6.3 +3.1 +4.5
  Nov 20, 2024 94   @ Stanford L 63-70 17%     2 - 2 +2.0 -0.3 +1.5
  Nov 22, 2024 102   @ Grand Canyon L 73-91 19%     2 - 3 -9.9 +4.4 -14.2
  Nov 25, 2024 185   @ UC Davis W 76-55 39%     3 - 3 +22.8 +8.6 +14.3
  Dec 01, 2024 307   @ Stony Brook W 77-66 65%     4 - 3 +5.9 +7.8 -1.0
  Dec 09, 2024 151   Hofstra L 67-80 57%     4 - 4 -15.7 +1.4 -18.3
  Dec 11, 2024 12   @ Baylor L 69-94 4%     4 - 5 -5.9 +2.3 -8.2
  Dec 15, 2024 214   @ Northern Kentucky L 62-71 44%     4 - 6 -8.5 -5.0 -4.0
  Dec 19, 2024 297   Alabama St. W 71-54 72%     5 - 6 +9.8 -2.3 +13.2
  Dec 20, 2024 308   Grambling St. W 76-70 75%     6 - 6 -2.1 +7.3 -8.9
  Dec 29, 2024 135   @ High Point L 70-75 31%    
  Dec 31, 2024 3   @ Tennessee L 56-81 1%    
  Jan 04, 2025 359   Maryland Eastern Shore W 79-63 93%    
  Jan 06, 2025 326   @ Delaware St. W 75-70 69%    
  Jan 11, 2025 363   Coppin St. W 77-57 97%    
  Jan 13, 2025 348   @ Morgan St. W 80-72 77%    
  Jan 25, 2025 255   Howard W 77-70 75%    
  Feb 01, 2025 247   South Carolina St. W 75-68 74%    
  Feb 03, 2025 276   NC Central W 75-67 78%    
  Feb 15, 2025 359   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 76-66 82%    
  Feb 17, 2025 326   Delaware St. W 78-67 85%    
  Feb 22, 2025 363   @ Coppin St. W 74-60 90%    
  Feb 24, 2025 348   Morgan St. W 83-69 90%    
  Mar 01, 2025 247   @ South Carolina St. W 72-71 53%    
  Mar 03, 2025 276   @ NC Central W 72-70 58%    
  Mar 06, 2025 255   @ Howard W 74-73 54%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 11 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 6.4 16.1 18.9 12.5 4.4 59.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 5.2 9.8 5.4 0.9 21.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.1 5.3 2.0 0.1 10.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.6 0.8 0.0 5.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.3 2.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.1 6.8 12.0 18.2 21.6 19.8 12.5 4.4 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 4.4    4.4
13-1 100.0% 12.5    12.3 0.2
12-2 95.4% 18.9    16.0 2.9 0.0
11-3 74.6% 16.1    9.5 5.9 0.7 0.0
10-4 35.1% 6.4    1.7 3.0 1.5 0.2
9-5 6.7% 0.8    0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
8-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 59.1% 59.1 43.9 12.2 2.6 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 4.4% 65.8% 65.8% 13.6 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 1.5
13-1 12.5% 57.9% 57.9% 14.2 0.1 1.2 3.4 2.4 0.2 5.3
12-2 19.8% 51.7% 51.7% 14.7 0.0 0.5 3.1 5.5 1.1 9.5
11-3 21.6% 44.0% 44.0% 15.2 0.1 1.3 5.1 3.0 12.1
10-4 18.2% 36.4% 36.4% 15.5 0.0 0.3 2.5 3.9 11.6
9-5 12.0% 28.6% 28.6% 15.8 0.0 0.8 2.7 8.6
8-6 6.8% 23.8% 23.8% 15.9 0.2 1.4 5.2
7-7 3.1% 18.8% 18.8% 16.0 0.0 0.6 2.5
6-8 1.2% 14.3% 14.3% 16.0 0.2 1.0
5-9 0.4% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-10 0.1% 12.7% 12.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-11 0.0% 0.0
2-12 0.0% 0.0
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 42.3% 42.3% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.3 2.9 9.4 16.8 12.9 57.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 12.0 23.8 52.4 23.8