Norfolk St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.6#218
Expected Predictive Rating-8.2#289
Pace65.7#280
Improvement-0.3#206

Offense
Total Offense-5.3#312
First Shot-4.1#285
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#256
Layup/Dunks-3.8#306
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#12
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#230
Freethrows-4.6#353
Improvement-0.1#193

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#121
First Shot+4.4#48
After Offensive Rebounds-2.7#320
Layups/Dunks+2.0#105
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#73
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#68
Freethrows-2.3#312
Improvement-0.2#204
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 51.3% 61.1% 50.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.3 15.8
.500 or above 78.0% 94.6% 77.5%
.500 or above in Conference 97.9% 99.5% 97.8%
Conference Champion 69.0% 79.3% 68.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four34.9% 19.3% 35.4%
First Round35.6% 53.2% 35.0%
Second Round0.3% 0.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Baylor (Away) - 3.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 416 - 516 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 119 William & Mary L 78-81 36%     0 - 1 -2.9 -1.6 -1.1
  Tue, Nov 11 212 @Old Dominion L 57-60 37%     0 - 2 -3.3 -6.9 +3.0
  Fri, Nov 14 125 @Towson L 41-51 20%     0 - 3 -4.6 -21.6 +15.3
  Fri, Nov 21 208 Hampton W 62-60 60%     1 - 3 -4.2 -5.7 +1.8
  Sun, Nov 23 107 @Wyoming L 67-75 15%     1 - 4 -0.7 +1.4 -2.5
  Sat, Nov 29 5 @Arizona L 61-98 1%     1 - 5 -13.0 -4.6 -5.6
  Sat, Dec 6 177 @James Madison L 67-68 31%     1 - 6 +0.6 -2.4 +2.9
  Wed, Dec 10 34 @Baylor L 62-82 3%    
  Thu, Dec 18 284 Grambling St. W 66-63 61%    
  Fri, Dec 19 312 Jackson St. W 69-64 67%    
  Sun, Dec 21 241 @UTEP L 62-64 42%    
  Sun, Dec 28 319 @Louisiana W 64-62 59%    
  Sat, Jan 3 350 @NC Central W 68-62 71%    
  Sat, Jan 10 351 @Delaware St. W 68-62 71%    
  Mon, Jan 12 345 Maryland Eastern Shore W 66-55 85%    
  Sat, Jan 17 349 @South Carolina St. W 71-65 70%    
  Sat, Jan 24 364 Coppin St. W 75-58 94%    
  Mon, Jan 26 358 Morgan St. W 78-65 89%    
  Sat, Jan 31 313 @Howard W 70-68 57%    
  Sat, Feb 7 350 NC Central W 71-59 85%    
  Sat, Feb 14 351 Delaware St. W 71-59 86%    
  Mon, Feb 16 345 @Maryland Eastern Shore W 63-58 68%    
  Sat, Feb 21 349 South Carolina St. W 74-62 85%    
  Sat, Feb 28 364 @Coppin St. W 72-61 83%    
  Mon, Mar 2 358 @Morgan St. W 75-68 75%    
  Thu, Mar 5 313 Howard W 73-65 76%    
Projected Record 14 - 12 11 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.9 8.0 16.8 20.2 15.2 6.9 69.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.5 5.6 6.7 3.4 0.6 17.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.2 2.7 0.6 0.0 7.1 3rd
4th 0.3 1.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.1 6.1 10.3 15.3 20.2 20.7 15.2 6.9 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 6.9    6.9
13-1 100.0% 15.2    15.0 0.2
12-2 97.3% 20.2    18.1 2.1 0.0
11-3 83.2% 16.8    11.8 4.7 0.2
10-4 52.4% 8.0    3.4 3.7 0.9 0.0
9-5 18.1% 1.9    0.2 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
8-6 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 69.0% 69.0 55.4 11.5 1.9 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 6.9% 73.9% 73.9% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.9 1.8 1.8
13-1 15.2% 68.8% 68.8% 15.7 0.0 0.5 2.4 7.5 4.7
12-2 20.7% 60.1% 60.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.9 11.5 8.3
11-3 20.2% 51.6% 51.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2 10.1 9.8
10-4 15.3% 43.9% 43.9% 16.0 0.1 6.7 8.6
9-5 10.3% 34.7% 34.7% 16.0 0.0 3.6 6.7
8-6 6.1% 25.6% 25.6% 16.0 1.6 4.6
7-7 3.1% 20.8% 20.8% 16.0 0.6 2.5
6-8 1.4% 19.3% 19.3% 16.0 0.3 1.2
5-9 0.5% 11.3% 11.3% 16.0 0.1 0.5
4-10 0.1% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
2-12 0.0% 0.0
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 51.3% 51.3% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.7 5.5 43.8 48.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.5 7.7 42.3 46.2 3.8