IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Mercyhurst
Northeast
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-15.9	#361
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	62.6	#324
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-9.6	#360

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-6.3	#352

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	n/a	n/a	n/a

.500 or above	6.0%	28.1%	5.8%
.500 or above in Conference	30.3%	59.7%	30.1%
Conference Champion	2.3%	6.7%	2.3%
Last Place in Conference	25.3%	8.7%	25.4%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern (Away) - 0.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 3	0 - 3	0 - 7
Quad 4	7 - 12	8 - 19

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	71	@ Northwestern	L	50-77	1%
Nov 06, 2025	103	@ Loyola Chicago	L	53-77	1%
Nov 12, 2025	346	@ Canisius	L	62-69	26%
Nov 15, 2025	355	Morgan St.	W	70-69	51%
Nov 20, 2025	128	@ Miami (OH)	L	58-79	3%
Nov 23, 2025	187	@ Marshall	L	59-76	7%
Nov 30, 2025	61	@ West Virginia	L	49-77	1%
Dec 05, 2025	308	@ Lafayette	L	58-69	17%
Dec 13, 2025	144	@ Davidson	L	55-75	4%
Dec 17, 2025	64	@ Syracuse	L	55-83	1%
Dec 20, 2025	331	Binghamton	L	62-65	41%
Jan 02, 2026	354	Fairleigh Dickinson	W	68-67	51%
Jan 04, 2026	347	Le Moyne	L	69-70	47%
Jan 08, 2026	300	@ LIU Brooklyn	L	56-67	17%
Jan 10, 2026	343	@ Wagner	L	52-59	27%
Jan 17, 2026	340	Stonehill	L	62-64	45%
Jan 19, 2026	305	Central Connecticut St.	L	59-64	35%
Jan 23, 2026	363	@ New Haven	L	65-67	45%
Jan 25, 2026	349	Chicago St.	L	67-68	47%
Jan 29, 2026	363	New Haven	W	68-64	64%
Jan 31, 2026	349	@ Chicago St.	L	64-71	29%
Feb 05, 2026	344	St. Francis (PA)	L	65-66	46%
Feb 07, 2026	354	@ Fairleigh Dickinson	L	65-71	31%
Feb 19, 2026	343	Wagner	L	55-56	46%
Feb 21, 2026	300	LIU Brooklyn	L	59-64	33%
Feb 26, 2026	305	@ Central Connecticut St.	L	56-67	19%
Feb 28, 2026	340	@ Stonehill	L	59-67	27%
Projected Record						8 - 19	6 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Northeast Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st										0.0	0.0	0.4	0.8	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0		2.3	1st
2nd									0.0	0.2	1.0	1.8	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.0			4.7	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.2	1.6	2.6	1.2	0.2	0.0					5.9	3rd
4th								0.2	2.0	3.5	1.6	0.2	0.0						7.5	4th
5th						0.0	0.3	2.1	4.4	2.0	0.2	0.0							8.9	5th
6th					0.0	0.2	2.1	5.3	2.9	0.3	0.0								10.9	6th
7th				0.0	0.3	2.2	5.8	3.5	0.4	0.0									12.2	7th
8th			0.0	0.5	2.9	5.9	4.3	0.7	0.0										14.4	8th
9th		0.1	1.2	4.1	6.4	3.8	0.8	0.0											16.4	9th
10th	1.1	3.0	5.1	4.7	2.4	0.5	0.0												16.9	10th

Total	1.1	3.1	6.3	9.3	12.0	12.6	13.3	11.9	9.9	7.5	5.5	3.6	2.2	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.0			Total

Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
15-1	91.7%	0.1		0.1	0.0
14-2	82.0%	0.4		0.3	0.1	0.0
13-3	59.3%	0.7		0.4	0.2	0.0
12-4	35.1%	0.8		0.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
11-5	9.9%	0.4		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
10-6	0.8%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.1%	0.0								0.0
8-8	0.0%

Total	2.3%	2.3		1.2	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0		0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.0%																							0.0
15-1	0.1%																							0.1
14-2	0.5%																							0.5
13-3	1.1%																							1.1
12-4	2.2%																							2.2
11-5	3.6%																							3.6
10-6	5.5%																							5.5
9-7	7.5%																							7.5
8-8	9.9%																							9.9
7-9	11.9%																							11.9
6-10	13.3%																							13.3
5-11	12.6%																							12.6
4-12	12.0%																							12.0
3-13	9.3%																							9.3
2-14	6.3%																							6.3
1-15	3.1%																							3.1
0-16	1.1%																							1.1

Total	100%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0																		100.0		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.6%