Stonehill
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.3 #339
Expected Predictive Rating -13.5 #344
Pace 65.6 #274
Improvement +0.2 #178

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #361 D- D- F F C
Defense #217 C C+ F C D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #175 1.01 #336 -3.0 #284
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #194 0.65 #321 -1.5 #256
Three Pointers 42% #160 0.94 #267 -1.0 #213
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #329 -5.4 #327
Freethrows 13.3 #349 69% #284 9.2 #360
Second Chance 27.5% #270 0.90 #341 0.25 #318
Turnovers 21.1% #361
Total Offense -9.9 #361

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #25 1.13 #137 -3.3 #291
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #198 0.64 #31 +1.4 #88
Three Pointers 35% #334 1.11 #303 +1.5 #126
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #190 -0.5 #191
Freethrows 18.9 #249 68% #36 12.9 #192
Second Chance 26.4% #44 1.12 #285 0.30 #117
Turnovers 11.1% #364
Total Defense -1.4 #217

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #180 1.2% #281
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.9% #338 -0.4% #177
Possession Length 18.9 #320 16.5 #51
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #274 0.19 #246
Improvement -0.5 #209 +0.7 #136

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.5% 8.5% 5.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.1% 2.7% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 65.1% 82.1% 56.9%
Conference Champion 1.4% 3.5% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 3.5% 1.1% 4.7%
First Four6.4% 8.4% 5.5%
First Round2.8% 3.9% 2.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: LIU Brooklyn (Home) - 32.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 410 - 1410 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 99 @DePaul L 64 - 72 4% -8  0 - 1 +0 -8 D C F +9 A+ A- F
 Tue, Nov 11 122 @Rhode Island L 57 - 80 7% -12  0 - 2 -17 -12 F D+ F -5 C B F
 Fri, Nov 14 274 @Fairfield L 71 - 73 OT 22% -2  0 - 3 -5 -12 F F B- +7 A+ A F
 Sat, Nov 15 324 Loyola Maryland L 63 - 74 45% -3  0 - 4 -21 -12 D+ F F -10 F C- F
 Mon, Nov 17 8 @Iowa St. L 57 - 96 0% -18  0 - 5 -16 -4 A- F F -11 F A+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 314 Lafayette W 74 - 70 54% +4  1 - 5 -8 -6 B F F -3 B- B- C+
 Wed, Nov 26 309 Umass Lowell L 64 - 75 51% -5  1 - 6 -22 -13 F F C -9 C C F
 Sun, Nov 30 175 @Quinnipiac L 62 - 76 11% -8  1 - 7 -12 -8 F A+ F -4 F A+ D
 Tue, Dec 2 343 @Bryant L 65 - 77 40% -4  1 - 8 -21 -1 D+ F D+ -21 F F F
 Wed, Dec 17 323 @New Hampshire L 58 - 59 34% -1  1 - 9 -8 -14 F F F +6 A+ B+ F
 Mon, Dec 22 67 @Syracuse L 48 - 77 3% -12  1 - 10 -18 -13 F B- F -9 D+ B- F
 Fri, Jan 2 331 New Haven L 55 - 70 59% -5  1 - 11 0 - 1 -29 -19 F D+ D+ -11 F C F
 Sun, Jan 4 326 @Wagner W 69 - 60 35% +2  2 - 11 1 - 1 +2 +1 C- D- C +2 B C+ D
 Thu, Jan 8 277 @Central Connecticut St. L 69 - 76 23% -6  2 - 12 1 - 2 -11 -3 C+ F F -7 F F A
 Sat, Jan 10 357 Chicago St. W 85 - 82 OT 71% +3  3 - 12 2 - 2 -14 +0 C+ B+ F -14 F F F
 Sat, Jan 17 306 @Mercyhurst W 62 - 57 OT 28% -2  4 - 12 3 - 2 -0 -11 F D- F +11 B+ A+ F
 Mon, Jan 19 358 @St. Francis (PA) L 61 - 63 52% +3  4 - 13 3 - 3 -14 -15 F F F +1 A C- F
 Fri, Jan 23 222 LIU Brooklyn L 66 - 71 32%
 Sun, Jan 25 277 Central Connecticut St. L 67 - 69 43%
 Thu, Jan 29 348 Fairleigh Dickinson W 69 - 65 65%
 Sat, Jan 31 278 @Le Moyne L 65 - 73 24%
 Thu, Feb 5 348 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 66 - 68 43%
 Sat, Feb 7 222 @LIU Brooklyn L 63 - 74 16%
 Thu, Feb 12 357 @Chicago St. L 67 - 68 49%
 Sat, Feb 14 326 Wagner W 68 - 66 58%
 Thu, Feb 19 331 @New Haven L 60 - 64 36%
 Sat, Feb 21 278 Le Moyne L 68 - 70 43%
 Thu, Feb 26 358 St. Francis (PA) W 72 - 66 72%
 Sat, Feb 28 306 Mercyhurst L 62 - 63 50%
Totals 9 - 20 8 - 10 -11 -10 D- D- F -1 C C+ F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.9 0.6 0.0 4.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.3 4.0 1.1 0.1 8.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 4.5 6.9 2.1 0.1 14.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 5.2 9.3 3.5 0.2 18.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 4.8 9.6 3.9 0.2 18.9 6th
7th 0.2 3.1 8.4 3.9 0.3 16.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.4 3.3 0.3 10.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 2.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 5.7 9th
10th 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.2 10th
Total 0.2 1.5 5.0 11.0 17.2 19.6 18.3 14.3 7.9 3.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 85.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-3 46.7% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-4 14.1% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
11-5 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0
14-2 0.2% 25.0% 25.0% 16.0 0.1 0.2
13-3 1.1% 24.9% 24.9% 16.0 0.3 0.9
12-4 3.6% 17.6% 17.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6 3.0
11-5 7.9% 11.4% 11.4% 16.0 0.9 7.0
10-6 14.3% 8.6% 8.6% 16.0 1.2 13.0
9-7 18.3% 7.1% 7.1% 16.0 1.3 17.0
8-8 19.6% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 1.0 18.5
7-9 17.2% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.7 16.5
6-10 11.0% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.3 10.7
5-11 5.0% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 5.0
4-12 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-13 0.2% 0.2
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 16.0 93.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%