Stonehill
Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.1#323
Expected Predictive Rating-5.7#262
Pace65.7#267
Improvement+2.3#52

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#319
First Shot-2.0#233
After Offensive Rebound-3.1#332
Layup/Dunks-5.8#342
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#234
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#25
Freethrows-1.1#250
Improvement+4.0#4

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#301
First Shot-2.8#271
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#287
Layups/Dunks-1.8#243
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#223
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#152
Freethrows-1.6#285
Improvement-1.8#310
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.3% 13.5% 9.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 43.5% 66.8% 40.4%
.500 or above in Conference 67.2% 77.2% 65.9%
Conference Champion 11.0% 15.6% 10.3%
Last Place in Conference 6.1% 3.6% 6.4%
First Four9.0% 10.2% 8.9%
First Round5.0% 7.7% 4.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Umass Lowell (Away) - 11.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 31 - 7
Quad 414 - 915 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 81   @ Notre Dame L 60-89 5%     0 - 1 -19.2 -6.6 -13.4
  Nov 09, 2024 75   @ Providence L 49-76 5%     0 - 2 -16.8 -19.2 +3.2
  Nov 14, 2024 259   @ Robert Morris L 51-63 26%     0 - 3 -14.5 -18.5 +3.7
  Nov 15, 2024 346   New Orleans W 80-54 60%     1 - 3 +14.3 +0.4 +13.5
  Nov 17, 2024 347   Lindenwood L 74-75 60%     1 - 4 -12.8 -0.7 -12.1
  Nov 21, 2024 176   Bryant W 67-66 30%     2 - 4 -2.8 -6.8 +4.0
  Nov 25, 2024 357   Texas A&M - Commerce W 67-65 76%     3 - 4 -14.5 -3.8 -10.4
  Nov 27, 2024 13   @ Marquette L 59-94 1%     3 - 5 -16.7 -3.4 -14.2
  Dec 01, 2024 238   Quinnipiac W 88-74 42%     4 - 5 +7.0 +17.6 -9.8
  Dec 15, 2024 150   @ Boston College L 69-73 12%     4 - 6 -0.6 +7.3 -8.4
  Dec 18, 2024 151   @ Umass Lowell L 69-82 12%    
  Dec 22, 2024 354   New Hampshire W 71-64 74%    
  Dec 29, 2024 239   @ Lafayette L 63-71 22%    
  Jan 03, 2025 360   @ Mercyhurst W 68-65 59%    
  Jan 05, 2025 335   @ St. Francis (PA) L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 10, 2025 337   LIU Brooklyn W 71-66 67%    
  Jan 12, 2025 359   @ Chicago St. W 71-69 58%    
  Jan 20, 2025 338   @ Le Moyne L 69-70 46%    
  Jan 24, 2025 359   Chicago St. W 74-66 77%    
  Jan 26, 2025 339   Fairleigh Dickinson W 79-74 68%    
  Jan 30, 2025 290   Wagner W 59-58 52%    
  Feb 01, 2025 222   Central Connecticut St. L 64-67 39%    
  Feb 08, 2025 337   @ LIU Brooklyn L 68-69 45%    
  Feb 13, 2025 335   St. Francis (PA) W 73-69 65%    
  Feb 15, 2025 360   Mercyhurst W 71-62 77%    
  Feb 20, 2025 290   @ Wagner L 56-61 32%    
  Feb 22, 2025 222   @ Central Connecticut St. L 61-70 21%    
  Feb 27, 2025 339   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 76-77 47%    
  Mar 01, 2025 338   Le Moyne W 72-67 67%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.4 2.9 1.5 0.4 0.1 11.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 5.3 6.4 3.3 0.8 0.1 17.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 6.9 6.6 2.2 0.3 0.0 17.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 6.3 5.9 1.4 0.1 15.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 5.2 5.5 1.1 0.0 12.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.8 5.1 1.1 0.0 10.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.8 1.0 0.0 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.5 0.8 0.0 5.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.0 3.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.1 5.9 9.2 12.6 14.5 15.3 13.9 10.7 7.0 3.8 1.6 0.4 0.1 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
14-2 94.9% 1.5    1.3 0.2
13-3 77.6% 2.9    2.1 0.8 0.0
12-4 49.1% 3.4    1.6 1.5 0.3 0.0
11-5 19.3% 2.1    0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
10-6 3.8% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 11.0% 11.0 6.0 3.6 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 56.4% 56.4% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.4% 38.1% 38.1% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3
14-2 1.6% 30.8% 30.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1
13-3 3.8% 26.0% 26.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.8
12-4 7.0% 19.2% 19.2% 16.0 0.0 1.3 5.7
11-5 10.7% 17.1% 17.1% 16.0 0.0 1.8 8.8
10-6 13.9% 12.6% 12.6% 16.0 1.8 12.1
9-7 15.3% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 0.0 1.5 13.8
8-8 14.5% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 1.0 13.5
7-9 12.6% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.7 11.9
6-10 9.2% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.3 8.9
5-11 5.9% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 5.7
4-12 3.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 3.1
3-13 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.4
2-14 0.5% 0.5
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.3% 10.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 9.9 89.7 0.0%