Stonehill
Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.7#324
Expected Predictive Rating-9.0#309
Pace63.8#295
Improvement-2.7#300

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#277
First Shot-1.1#212
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#325
Layup/Dunks-4.5#330
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#231
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#39
Freethrows-0.9#240
Improvement+0.6#153

Defense
Total Defense-5.8#335
First Shot-5.2#330
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#243
Layups/Dunks-2.5#277
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#250
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#186
Freethrows-2.5#332
Improvement-3.3#331
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.1% 11.0% 8.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 16.5% 45.9% 11.0%
.500 or above in Conference 36.7% 84.1% 27.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.0% 1.1%
First Four9.0% 10.5% 8.7%
First Round3.2% 4.0% 3.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Connecticut St. (Away) - 15.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 31 - 7
Quad 413 - 1014 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 95   @ Notre Dame L 60-89 6%     0 - 1 -21.3 -8.6 -13.6
  Nov 09, 2024 79   @ Providence L 49-76 5%     0 - 2 -17.2 -22.0 +5.6
  Nov 14, 2024 173   @ Robert Morris L 51-63 14%     0 - 3 -10.0 -18.6 +8.3
  Nov 15, 2024 353   New Orleans W 80-54 63%     1 - 3 +12.8 -1.1 +13.5
  Nov 17, 2024 335   Lindenwood L 74-75 55%     1 - 4 -12.0 +1.5 -13.5
  Nov 21, 2024 161   Bryant W 67-66 25%     2 - 4 -1.5 -5.5 +4.0
  Nov 25, 2024 339   Texas A&M - Commerce W 67-65 66%     3 - 4 -12.0 -1.8 -10.0
  Nov 27, 2024 29   @ Marquette L 59-94 1%     3 - 5 -17.7 -3.5 -15.2
  Dec 01, 2024 189   Quinnipiac W 88-74 30%     4 - 5 +9.8 +19.9 -9.4
  Dec 15, 2024 174   @ Boston College L 69-73 14%     4 - 6 -2.1 +6.6 -9.3
  Dec 18, 2024 225   @ Umass Lowell L 67-78 20%     4 - 7 -11.9 -6.6 -5.8
  Dec 22, 2024 355   New Hampshire W 90-83 74%     5 - 7 -9.3 +11.8 -21.0
  Dec 29, 2024 298   @ Lafayette W 70-65 33%     6 - 7 -0.1 -1.4 +1.4
  Jan 03, 2025 350   @ Mercyhurst L 69-76 52%     6 - 8 0 - 1 -17.3 -8.0 -9.4
  Jan 05, 2025 331   @ St. Francis (PA) W 64-60 43%     7 - 8 1 - 1 -4.0 -6.0 +2.5
  Jan 10, 2025 323   LIU Brooklyn L 60-70 59%     7 - 9 1 - 2 -22.0 -7.1 -16.0
  Jan 12, 2025 360   @ Chicago St. W 68-52 63%     8 - 9 2 - 2 +2.8 -1.0 +5.6
  Jan 20, 2025 357   @ Le Moyne L 72-73 56%     8 - 10 2 - 3 -12.3 -5.0 -7.3
  Jan 24, 2025 360   Chicago St. W 75-73 79%     9 - 10 3 - 3 -16.3 -0.1 -16.0
  Jan 26, 2025 318   Fairleigh Dickinson L 54-65 58%     9 - 11 3 - 4 -22.8 -17.1 -6.9
  Jan 30, 2025 347   Wagner W 73-61 70%     10 - 11 4 - 4 -3.2 +8.6 -9.6
  Feb 01, 2025 197   Central Connecticut St. L 63-71 31%     10 - 12 4 - 5 -12.6 -10.9 -1.5
  Feb 08, 2025 323   @ LIU Brooklyn L 59-62 39%     10 - 13 4 - 6 -9.9 -2.9 -7.5
  Feb 13, 2025 331   St. Francis (PA) W 79-74 63%     11 - 13 5 - 6 -8.1 +8.4 -15.9
  Feb 15, 2025 350   Mercyhurst W 85-73 71%     12 - 13 6 - 6 -3.4 +14.6 -16.7
  Feb 20, 2025 347   @ Wagner L 57-63 52%     12 - 14 6 - 7 -16.1 -4.9 -12.6
  Feb 22, 2025 197   @ Central Connecticut St. L 62-72 16%    
  Feb 27, 2025 318   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 70-73 37%    
  Mar 01, 2025 357   Le Moyne W 78-71 75%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.4 0.4 2nd
3rd 6.0 4.5 10.5 3rd
4th 0.3 17.3 17.7 4th
5th 0.8 27.9 8.5 37.2 5th
6th 8.9 20.6 29.5 6th
7th 3.8 0.8 4.6 7th
8th 0.2 0.2 8th
9th 9th
Total 13.8 49.6 31.7 4.9 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 4.9% 12.0% 12.0% 16.0 0.6 4.3
8-8 31.7% 9.6% 9.6% 16.0 3.0 28.7
7-9 49.6% 9.3% 9.3% 16.0 4.6 45.0
6-10 13.8% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 0.9 12.9
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 16.0 9.1 90.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2%
Lose Out 8.4%