Lafayette
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.0#239
Expected Predictive Rating-6.2#268
Pace64.7#288
Improvement+1.3#89

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#278
First Shot-1.1#200
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#315
Layup/Dunks-1.4#238
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#351
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#102
Freethrows+1.6#91
Improvement+1.0#99

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#185
First Shot+1.4#128
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#315
Layups/Dunks-0.6#187
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#193
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#37
Freethrows-2.2#311
Improvement+0.3#170
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.4% 19.3% 14.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 64.3% 81.0% 59.2%
.500 or above in Conference 74.9% 82.3% 72.6%
Conference Champion 20.6% 26.6% 18.8%
Last Place in Conference 4.4% 2.4% 5.0%
First Four6.2% 5.3% 6.4%
First Round12.4% 16.7% 11.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: George Washington (Away) - 23.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 41 - 7
Quad 416 - 817 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 48   @ Villanova L 63-75 6%     0 - 1 +1.5 -4.8 +6.0
  Nov 09, 2024 155   @ La Salle L 60-81 24%     0 - 2 -17.7 -11.3 -6.2
  Nov 12, 2024 284   Penn W 65-63 70%     1 - 2 -7.6 -0.6 -6.7
  Nov 16, 2024 121   @ Cornell L 71-81 18%     1 - 3 -4.4 -0.3 -4.3
  Nov 20, 2024 98   @ Rhode Island L 72-86 13%     1 - 4 -5.6 +1.1 -6.3
  Nov 29, 2024 337   LIU Brooklyn W 75-56 82%     2 - 4 +5.2 -0.3 +6.1
  Nov 30, 2024 314   Niagara W 59-47 77%     3 - 4 +0.3 -17.0 +18.2
  Dec 01, 2024 310   Binghamton L 81-82 OT 75%     3 - 5 -12.2 -2.1 -10.0
  Dec 07, 2024 360   @ Mercyhurst W 77-73 77%     4 - 5 -7.7 +6.0 -13.3
  Dec 18, 2024 144   @ George Washington L 67-75 23%    
  Dec 21, 2024 312   @ Portland W 69-68 55%    
  Dec 29, 2024 323   Stonehill W 71-63 78%    
  Jan 02, 2025 252   Boston University W 67-63 65%    
  Jan 05, 2025 301   @ Navy W 70-69 52%    
  Jan 08, 2025 260   @ Bucknell L 64-66 44%    
  Jan 11, 2025 330   Holy Cross W 73-64 80%    
  Jan 15, 2025 305   @ Army W 68-67 52%    
  Jan 18, 2025 224   Colgate W 67-65 58%    
  Jan 22, 2025 319   @ Loyola Maryland W 68-66 56%    
  Jan 25, 2025 246   @ Lehigh L 70-72 42%    
  Jan 29, 2025 237   American W 66-63 60%    
  Feb 01, 2025 224   @ Colgate L 64-68 37%    
  Feb 05, 2025 319   Loyola Maryland W 71-63 76%    
  Feb 08, 2025 301   Navy W 72-66 72%    
  Feb 10, 2025 237   @ American L 63-66 39%    
  Feb 15, 2025 260   Bucknell W 67-63 66%    
  Feb 19, 2025 330   @ Holy Cross W 70-67 60%    
  Feb 22, 2025 246   Lehigh W 73-69 63%    
  Feb 25, 2025 305   Army W 71-64 73%    
  Mar 01, 2025 252   @ Boston University L 64-66 44%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.8 5.3 5.5 3.8 1.8 0.7 0.1 20.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.0 6.3 4.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 16.6 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.9 6.2 2.9 0.6 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.8 6.1 2.6 0.3 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.7 5.4 2.6 0.2 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.4 2.9 0.3 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.9 2.8 0.4 0.0 6.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 2.0 2.3 0.5 0.0 5.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.5 4.3 6.8 9.5 11.9 13.5 13.6 12.3 10.1 6.8 4.0 1.8 0.7 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
16-2 99.1% 1.8    1.7 0.1
15-3 94.7% 3.8    3.3 0.5 0.0
14-4 81.1% 5.5    4.0 1.4 0.1
13-5 52.7% 5.3    2.6 2.2 0.5 0.0
12-6 22.9% 2.8    0.6 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
11-7 4.2% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.6% 20.6 13.1 5.5 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 50.0% 50.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.7% 48.1% 48.1% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
16-2 1.8% 42.4% 42.4% 14.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.0
15-3 4.0% 35.1% 35.1% 14.8 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.2 2.6
14-4 6.8% 30.4% 30.4% 15.2 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.8 4.8
13-5 10.1% 22.9% 22.9% 15.6 0.1 0.8 1.4 7.8
12-6 12.3% 19.4% 19.4% 15.8 0.0 0.5 1.9 9.9
11-7 13.6% 16.2% 16.2% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.0 11.4
10-8 13.5% 12.4% 12.4% 15.9 0.1 1.6 11.8
9-9 11.9% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 0.0 1.1 10.8
8-10 9.5% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.0 0.6 8.9
7-11 6.8% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.3 6.5
6-12 4.3% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.1 4.2
5-13 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.1 2.5
4-14 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-17 0.0% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.4% 15.4% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.9 10.1 84.6 0.0%