Colgate
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.4#179
Expected Predictive Rating+0.2#165
Pace67.4#241
Improvement-0.7#235

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#171
First Shot+3.1#92
After Offensive Rebound-3.5#348
Layup/Dunks+2.4#99
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#59
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#163
Freethrows-2.5#318
Improvement-1.9#320

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#200
First Shot-2.0#239
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#124
Layups/Dunks-1.2#222
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#56
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#252
Freethrows-0.6#231
Improvement+1.1#92
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.8% 34.2% 27.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.4 15.0
.500 or above 86.5% 95.0% 84.2%
.500 or above in Conference 92.6% 95.9% 91.7%
Conference Champion 41.5% 50.2% 39.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.3% 0.7%
First Four3.0% 1.3% 3.5%
First Round27.3% 33.6% 25.7%
Second Round0.7% 1.5% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Bonaventure (Away) - 21.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 32 - 32 - 7
Quad 416 - 619 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 12 @Michigan St. L 69-80 3%     0 - 1 +10.5 +9.6 +0.8
  Fri, Nov 7 228 Northeastern L 65-68 70%     0 - 2 -9.9 -6.9 -3.2
  Tue, Nov 11 267 Drexel W 90-83 75%     1 - 2 -1.6 +14.3 -15.9
  Fri, Nov 14 15 @Illinois L 65-84 3%     1 - 3 +2.0 +4.6 -3.5
  Mon, Nov 17 156 @Siena W 72-69 34%     2 - 3 +5.7 +7.9 -2.0
  Thu, Nov 20 150 @Cornell L 94-95 2OT 33%     2 - 4 +2.2 -3.3 +5.8
  Fri, Nov 28 330 Albany W 69-67 79%     3 - 4 -8.1 -3.1 -4.8
  Sun, Nov 30 229 Fordham W 72-62 60%     4 - 4 +6.1 +3.9 +3.0
  Wed, Dec 10 108 @St. Bonaventure L 66-75 21%    
  Sun, Dec 21 14 @Florida L 64-86 2%    
  Sun, Dec 28 202 Harvard W 72-68 65%    
  Wed, Dec 31 327 @Lafayette W 74-69 69%    
  Sat, Jan 3 340 @Army W 77-70 74%    
  Wed, Jan 7 242 American W 77-71 71%    
  Sat, Jan 10 307 Lehigh W 77-67 81%    
  Wed, Jan 14 321 @Loyola Maryland W 76-71 66%    
  Sat, Jan 17 316 Bucknell W 77-67 82%    
  Wed, Jan 21 242 @American W 74-73 50%    
  Sat, Jan 24 253 Boston University W 75-68 73%    
  Wed, Jan 28 286 Holy Cross W 75-66 78%    
  Sat, Jan 31 307 @Lehigh W 74-70 63%    
  Wed, Feb 4 340 Army W 80-67 87%    
  Sat, Feb 7 316 @Bucknell W 74-70 64%    
  Wed, Feb 11 286 @Holy Cross W 72-69 59%    
  Sat, Feb 14 197 Navy W 73-69 64%    
  Mon, Feb 16 253 @Boston University W 72-71 53%    
  Sat, Feb 21 321 Loyola Maryland W 79-68 83%    
  Wed, Feb 25 327 Lafayette W 77-66 84%    
  Sat, Feb 28 197 @Navy L 70-72 42%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.4 6.8 10.5 10.2 7.1 3.2 0.9 41.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 3.0 7.2 7.1 3.8 0.9 0.1 22.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.3 5.6 4.0 1.1 0.2 13.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 4.0 2.5 0.4 0.0 8.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 2.8 2.0 0.2 0.0 5.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.3 0.2 3.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.6 6.1 8.8 11.7 14.0 15.0 14.5 11.2 7.2 3.2 0.9 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 100.0% 3.2    3.2 0.0
16-2 99.0% 7.1    6.8 0.4
15-3 91.5% 10.2    8.6 1.6 0.0
14-4 72.4% 10.5    7.0 3.2 0.3 0.0
13-5 45.0% 6.8    2.9 2.9 0.8 0.1
12-6 16.9% 2.4    0.6 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
11-7 3.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 41.5% 41.5 30.0 9.2 1.9 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 64.4% 64.4% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
17-1 3.2% 53.9% 53.9% 13.5 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.2 1.5
16-2 7.2% 46.9% 46.9% 14.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 0.8 0.0 3.8
15-3 11.2% 41.3% 41.3% 14.4 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.9 0.2 6.6
14-4 14.5% 35.1% 35.1% 14.8 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.8 0.7 9.4
13-5 15.0% 30.8% 30.8% 15.1 0.1 0.8 2.5 1.3 10.4
12-6 14.0% 26.0% 26.0% 15.4 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.6 10.3
11-7 11.7% 20.9% 20.9% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.7 9.2
10-8 8.8% 15.4% 15.4% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.1 7.5
9-9 6.1% 14.2% 14.2% 15.9 0.1 0.8 5.2
8-10 3.6% 9.2% 9.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3 3.2
7-11 2.1% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.1 2.0
6-12 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0
5-13 0.5% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 28.8% 28.8% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.4 7.1 10.9 7.8 71.2 0.0%