IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Colgate
Patriot League
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-3.2	#216
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.4	#202
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.3	#212

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.0	#237

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	23.2%	39.3%	22.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	16.1	13.7	14.9

.500 or above	64.5%	91.7%	64.0%
.500 or above in Conference	84.5%	97.3%	84.3%
Conference Champion	31.2%	53.7%	30.8%
Last Place in Conference	1.9%	0.0%	2.0%

First Four	5.3%	3.6%	5.3%
First Round	22.6%	39.3%	22.3%
Second Round	0.8%	3.6%	0.7%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	1.1%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Michigan St. (Away) - 1.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 3	0 - 3
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 4
Quad 3	2 - 4	2 - 7
Quad 4	15 - 7	17 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	21	@ Michigan St.	L	59-81	2%
Nov 07, 2025	226	Northeastern	W	72-69	62%
Nov 11, 2025	227	Drexel	W	66-63	62%
Nov 14, 2025	15	@ Illinois	L	65-89	2%
Nov 17, 2025	222	@ Siena	L	69-72	41%
Nov 20, 2025	160	@ Cornell	L	75-81	30%
Nov 28, 2025	302	Albany	W	74-69	66%
Nov 30, 2025	164	Fordham	L	73-76	41%
Dec 10, 2025	120	@ St. Bonaventure	L	62-71	23%
Dec 21, 2025	5	@ Florida	L	61-88	1%
Dec 28, 2025	172	Harvard	W	69-68	53%
Dec 31, 2025	308	@ Lafayette	W	69-67	56%
Jan 03, 2026	353	@ Army	W	74-68	70%
Jan 07, 2026	303	American	W	70-62	75%
Jan 10, 2026	306	Lehigh	W	74-66	75%
Jan 14, 2026	317	@ Loyola Maryland	W	71-68	58%
Jan 17, 2026	287	Bucknell	W	74-67	72%
Jan 21, 2026	303	@ American	W	67-65	56%
Jan 24, 2026	277	Boston University	W	68-62	69%
Jan 28, 2026	352	Holy Cross	W	76-64	84%
Jan 31, 2026	306	@ Lehigh	W	71-69	57%
Feb 04, 2026	353	Army	W	77-65	84%
Feb 07, 2026	287	@ Bucknell	W	71-70	52%
Feb 11, 2026	352	@ Holy Cross	W	73-67	70%
Feb 14, 2026	224	Navy	W	72-69	60%
Feb 16, 2026	277	@ Boston University	W	66-65	50%
Feb 21, 2026	317	Loyola Maryland	W	74-65	76%
Feb 25, 2026	308	Lafayette	W	72-64	74%
Feb 28, 2026	224	@ Navy	L	69-72	41%
Projected Record						16 - 13	12 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Patriot League Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.1	1.2	3.8	6.7	7.8	6.7	3.7	1.3		31.2	1st
2nd											0.2	1.7	5.3	6.7	4.4	1.5	0.2				20.0	2nd
3rd										0.2	1.9	5.0	4.6	1.8	0.3	0.0					13.7	3rd
4th									0.1	1.6	4.3	3.3	0.9	0.1							10.2	4th
5th								0.1	1.2	3.5	2.6	0.6	0.0								8.1	5th
6th							0.1	0.8	2.4	2.0	0.4	0.0									5.8	6th
7th						0.1	0.7	1.9	1.5	0.3	0.0										4.5	7th
8th				0.0	0.1	0.5	1.3	1.1	0.2	0.0											3.3	8th
9th			0.0	0.1	0.4	0.8	0.6	0.1	0.0												2.1	9th
10th	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.0														1.0	10th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.9	1.7	2.8	4.0	5.5	7.7	9.3	10.7	11.9	12.3	11.4	9.3	6.9	3.7	1.3			Total

Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	1.3		1.3
17-1	100.0%	3.7		3.7	0.0
16-2	97.0%	6.7		6.0	0.7	0.0
15-3	84.0%	7.8		6.1	1.7	0.1
14-4	58.8%	6.7		3.8	2.6	0.4	0.0
13-5	30.5%	3.8		1.4	1.6	0.7	0.1	0.0
12-6	9.8%	1.2		0.2	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0
11-7	1.3%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	31.2%	31.2		22.4	7.1	1.6	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	1.3%		66.9%	66.9%		12.7							0.0					0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0		0.4
17-1	3.7%		56.5%	56.5%		13.4												0.0	0.3	0.8	0.7	0.2	0.0	1.6
16-2	6.9%		50.2%	50.2%		14.2													0.2	0.8	1.4	0.9	0.2	3.4
15-3	9.3%		42.0%	42.0%		15.3													0.1	0.5	1.2	1.7	0.6	5.4
14-4	11.4%		32.3%	32.3%		16.5													0.0	0.2	0.9	1.6	1.3	7.7
13-5	12.3%		25.7%	25.7%		17.7														0.1	0.4	1.3	1.9	9.1
12-6	11.9%		19.0%	19.0%		18.5														0.0	0.1	0.8	1.8	9.7
11-7	10.7%		16.4%	16.4%		17.9															0.0	0.4	1.5	8.9
10-8	9.3%		10.7%	10.7%		17.7																0.1	1.0	8.3
9-9	7.7%		6.8%	6.8%		17.1																0.0	0.5	7.2
8-10	5.5%		4.2%	4.2%		16.3																	0.2	5.3
7-11	4.0%		3.1%	3.1%		17.0																	0.1	3.9
6-12	2.8%		1.6%	1.6%		16.0																	0.0	2.7
5-13	1.7%		2.0%	2.0%		16.0																	0.0	1.6
4-14	0.9%		1.8%	1.8%		16.0																	0.0	0.9
3-15	0.4%																							0.4
2-16	0.2%																							0.2
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		23.2%	23.2%	0.0%	16.1							0.0					0.1	1.0	2.7	4.9	7.1	9.3	76.8		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%