Colgate
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.3#209
Expected Predictive Rating-9.1#304
Pace65.7#278
Improvement-1.1#283

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#257
First Shot+2.0#123
After Offensive Rebound-4.8#360
Layup/Dunks-0.5#204
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#88
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.1#19
Freethrows-6.2#359
Improvement+0.1#169

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#148
First Shot-2.6#271
After Offensive Rebounds+3.1#21
Layups/Dunks+4.9#47
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#296
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.5#347
Freethrows+0.9#138
Improvement-1.1#299
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.9% 27.6% 20.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 52.7% 70.0% 45.5%
.500 or above in Conference 84.0% 89.6% 81.7%
Conference Champion 32.1% 40.5% 28.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 1.1% 2.7%
First Four7.3% 5.9% 8.0%
First Round19.7% 25.1% 17.5%
Second Round0.8% 1.2% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Wilmington (Away) - 29.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 52 - 9
Quad 414 - 716 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 144   @ Drexel L 56-73 27%     0 - 1 -13.0 -10.9 -3.0
  Nov 12, 2024 90   @ Syracuse L 72-74 14%     0 - 2 +7.1 +1.7 +5.4
  Nov 18, 2024 49   @ North Carolina St. L 49-72 8%     0 - 3 -10.0 -18.7 +9.3
  Nov 22, 2024 227   @ Harvard L 67-78 42%     0 - 4 -11.3 -2.1 -9.7
  Nov 27, 2024 152   @ UNC Wilmington L 67-73 29%    
  Nov 29, 2024 197   Appalachian St. L 65-66 48%    
  Nov 30, 2024 111   Sam Houston St. L 68-74 29%    
  Dec 04, 2024 213   Cornell W 77-74 62%    
  Dec 08, 2024 163   @ Northeastern L 64-69 32%    
  Dec 11, 2024 8   @ Kentucky L 64-87 2%    
  Dec 15, 2024 159   Vermont W 62-61 51%    
  Dec 22, 2024 248   Iona W 70-65 68%    
  Jan 02, 2025 295   Army W 70-62 76%    
  Jan 05, 2025 229   @ Bucknell L 67-69 43%    
  Jan 08, 2025 279   Lehigh W 74-67 73%    
  Jan 11, 2025 289   Boston University W 70-63 74%    
  Jan 15, 2025 311   @ Navy W 70-67 60%    
  Jan 18, 2025 245   @ Lafayette L 64-65 47%    
  Jan 20, 2025 229   Bucknell W 70-66 64%    
  Jan 25, 2025 252   @ American L 64-65 48%    
  Jan 29, 2025 295   @ Army W 67-65 55%    
  Feb 01, 2025 245   Lafayette W 67-62 67%    
  Feb 03, 2025 279   @ Lehigh W 71-70 53%    
  Feb 08, 2025 337   Loyola Maryland W 71-60 84%    
  Feb 12, 2025 315   @ Holy Cross W 71-68 61%    
  Feb 15, 2025 289   @ Boston University W 67-66 54%    
  Feb 19, 2025 311   Navy W 73-64 78%    
  Feb 22, 2025 337   @ Loyola Maryland W 68-63 68%    
  Feb 26, 2025 315   Holy Cross W 74-65 79%    
  Mar 01, 2025 252   American W 67-62 68%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.2 5.9 8.4 7.4 4.9 2.3 0.6 32.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.3 6.7 5.5 2.6 0.6 0.1 19.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.7 5.8 3.8 1.0 0.1 13.6 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 4.7 2.8 0.5 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 3.8 2.4 0.3 0.0 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.8 2.1 0.3 0.0 6.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.9 0.2 4.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.7 4.3 6.5 8.4 10.5 12.5 13.3 12.4 11.1 8.1 4.9 2.3 0.6 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 100.0% 2.3    2.3 0.0
16-2 98.3% 4.9    4.7 0.2
15-3 92.3% 7.4    6.4 1.0 0.0
14-4 75.7% 8.4    5.7 2.4 0.3
13-5 47.7% 5.9    2.6 2.5 0.8 0.1
12-6 16.8% 2.2    0.5 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0
11-7 3.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 32.1% 32.1 22.8 7.1 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 61.9% 61.9% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-1 2.3% 51.4% 51.4% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.1
16-2 4.9% 48.6% 48.6% 14.3 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.2 2.5
15-3 8.1% 42.1% 42.1% 14.8 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 0.6 4.7
14-4 11.1% 34.7% 34.7% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 1.5 7.2
13-5 12.4% 28.3% 28.3% 15.6 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.2 8.9
12-6 13.3% 23.2% 23.2% 15.8 0.0 0.6 2.5 10.2
11-7 12.5% 17.8% 17.8% 15.9 0.1 2.1 10.3
10-8 10.5% 13.2% 13.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 9.1
9-9 8.4% 9.6% 9.6% 16.0 0.0 0.8 7.6
8-10 6.5% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 0.4 6.0
7-11 4.3% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.1 4.2
6-12 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.1 2.6
5-13 1.3% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 1.3
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 22.9% 22.9% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.4 6.3 11.8 77.1 0.0%