Yale
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.7#73
Expected Predictive Rating+11.8#53
Pace65.9#277
Improvement-3.9#360

Offense
Total Offense+8.7#23
First Shot+8.4#16
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#161
Layup/Dunks+4.2#55
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#158
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#125
Freethrows+2.0#79
Improvement-2.0#329

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#202
First Shot-2.1#236
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#114
Layups/Dunks-1.4#226
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#269
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#250
Freethrows+2.2#60
Improvement-1.9#325
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 57.6% 58.3% 51.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.8 11.8 12.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.1% 99.1% 98.6%
Conference Champion 75.5% 76.5% 67.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round57.4% 58.2% 51.0%
Second Round13.1% 13.5% 9.4%
Sweet Sixteen2.9% 3.0% 2.2%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois-Chicago (Home) - 89.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 22 - 12 - 2
Quad 38 - 310 - 4
Quad 412 - 123 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 198 @Navy W 97-68 75%     1 - 0 +29.6 +18.1 +9.3
  Tue, Nov 11 154 @Quinnipiac W 97-60 67%     2 - 0 +40.1 +24.6 +14.8
  Sat, Nov 15 222 Stony Brook W 86-79 90%     3 - 0 +0.4 +17.5 -16.5
  Tue, Nov 18 110 Rhode Island L 77-86 74%     3 - 1 -8.1 +9.3 -17.9
  Fri, Nov 21 264 Green Bay W 73-67 89%     4 - 1 +0.2 +5.6 -4.5
  Sun, Nov 23 180 College of Charleston W 74-63 81%     5 - 1 +9.6 +5.2 +5.2
  Mon, Nov 24 54 Akron W 97-94 42%     6 - 1 +12.6 +30.1 -17.3
  Sun, Nov 30 189 @Vermont W 77-74 74%     7 - 1 +3.9 +11.2 -6.9
  Sun, Dec 7 204 Illinois-Chicago W 84-71 90%    
  Wed, Dec 10 324 Albany W 84-67 94%    
  Mon, Dec 29 11 @Alabama L 80-94 9%    
  Mon, Jan 5 225 @Brown W 74-66 79%    
  Sat, Jan 10 247 @Princeton W 78-69 81%    
  Sat, Jan 17 150 Cornell W 91-81 83%    
  Mon, Jan 19 140 Columbia W 82-73 80%    
  Sat, Jan 24 240 @Penn W 84-75 80%    
  Fri, Jan 30 261 Dartmouth W 87-71 93%    
  Sat, Jan 31 193 Harvard W 80-67 87%    
  Fri, Feb 6 225 Brown W 77-63 91%    
  Mon, Feb 9 315 @Howard W 84-71 88%    
  Fri, Feb 13 261 @Dartmouth W 84-74 82%    
  Sat, Feb 14 193 @Harvard W 77-70 73%    
  Sat, Feb 21 240 Penn W 87-72 91%    
  Fri, Feb 27 150 @Cornell W 88-84 66%    
  Sat, Feb 28 140 @Columbia W 79-76 61%    
  Sat, Mar 7 247 Princeton W 81-66 91%    
Projected Record 21 - 5 11 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.4 6.7 16.0 22.4 19.5 9.5 75.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.3 6.3 3.5 0.8 15.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.2 2.1 0.6 0.0 5.3 3rd
4th 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.8 4.0 8.0 13.6 19.6 23.2 19.5 9.5 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 9.5    9.5
13-1 100.0% 19.5    19.2 0.4
12-2 96.7% 22.4    19.9 2.5 0.0
11-3 81.7% 16.0    10.9 4.8 0.3 0.0
10-4 49.0% 6.7    2.7 3.3 0.6 0.0
9-5 17.8% 1.4    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2
8-6 1.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 75.5% 75.5 62.3 11.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 9.5% 74.9% 72.9% 2.0% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.9 3.8 1.1 0.1 0.0 2.4 7.3%
13-1 19.5% 70.4% 70.0% 0.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 6.4 6.5 0.4 0.0 5.8 1.1%
12-2 23.2% 62.3% 62.2% 0.0% 11.9 0.0 3.1 9.6 1.6 0.1 8.8 0.1%
11-3 19.6% 55.4% 55.4% 0.0% 12.2 0.9 7.1 2.6 0.2 8.7 0.0%
10-4 13.6% 49.4% 49.4% 12.5 0.2 3.5 2.7 0.3 0.0 6.9
9-5 8.0% 40.8% 40.8% 12.7 0.0 1.3 1.6 0.3 4.7
8-6 4.0% 32.6% 32.6% 12.9 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.7
7-7 1.8% 10.1% 10.1% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.6
6-8 0.6% 1.1% 1.1% 13.0 0.0 0.6
5-9 0.2% 0.2
4-10 0.1% 0.1
3-11 0.0% 0.0
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 57.6% 57.3% 0.3% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.2 14.4 29.6 9.6 1.2 0.0 42.4 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 7.1 0.8 10.7 12.3 21.3 16.6 7.5 14.2 11.1 5.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 51.4% 10.2 5.7 11.4 2.9 31.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 28.6% 10.1 11.4 2.9 14.3