Yale
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.9#110
Expected Predictive Rating-2.2#232
Pace70.1#161
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#95
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#138
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.8% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.2% 36.5% 27.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.0 12.4 13.3
.500 or above 84.3% 93.5% 80.2%
.500 or above in Conference 90.1% 93.7% 88.6%
Conference Champion 39.2% 47.2% 35.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.6% 1.5%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.4%
First Round30.1% 36.3% 27.3%
Second Round5.2% 7.7% 4.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 2.3% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Minnesota (Away) - 30.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 35 - 46 - 8
Quad 410 - 217 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 247   Quinnipiac W 88-62 85%     1 - 0 +18.8 +9.3 +8.8
  Nov 08, 2024 162   @ Illinois-Chicago L 79-91 52%     1 - 1 -8.7 +0.3 -7.9
  Nov 11, 2024 15   @ Purdue L 84-92 11%     1 - 2 +9.5 +14.6 -4.8
  Nov 16, 2024 88   @ Minnesota L 69-74 31%    
  Nov 20, 2024 287   @ Stony Brook W 77-70 76%    
  Nov 23, 2024 258   Fairfield W 76-67 80%    
  Nov 24, 2024 204   Delaware W 78-72 72%    
  Dec 02, 2024 116   @ Rhode Island L 76-78 41%    
  Dec 07, 2024 139   Vermont W 69-63 69%    
  Dec 20, 2024 135   Akron W 74-72 59%    
  Jan 01, 2025 246   Howard W 81-70 84%    
  Jan 11, 2025 199   Brown W 77-68 79%    
  Jan 18, 2025 182   @ Columbia W 79-77 57%    
  Jan 20, 2025 329   Dartmouth W 78-62 92%    
  Jan 25, 2025 236   Harvard W 78-68 82%    
  Jan 31, 2025 107   @ Princeton L 74-78 38%    
  Feb 01, 2025 208   @ Penn W 75-71 62%    
  Feb 08, 2025 183   @ Cornell W 81-79 57%    
  Feb 14, 2025 208   Penn W 78-68 80%    
  Feb 15, 2025 107   Princeton W 77-75 58%    
  Feb 21, 2025 183   Cornell W 84-76 75%    
  Feb 22, 2025 182   Columbia W 82-74 76%    
  Feb 28, 2025 329   @ Dartmouth W 75-65 81%    
  Mar 01, 2025 236   @ Harvard W 75-71 64%    
  Mar 08, 2025 199   @ Brown W 74-71 60%    
Projected Record 16 - 9 10 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 5.9 11.0 11.2 7.0 2.6 39.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 7.8 9.4 4.8 1.0 24.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 6.3 5.5 1.5 0.1 14.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.3 3.5 0.6 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.4 0.4 0.0 5.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.4 0.2 3.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.1 1.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.7 5.2 8.4 11.9 15.2 16.8 15.9 12.3 7.0 2.6 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 2.6    2.6
13-1 100.0% 7.0    6.8 0.3
12-2 91.7% 11.2    9.3 1.9 0.0
11-3 69.3% 11.0    6.6 4.0 0.4
10-4 35.2% 5.9    1.8 2.9 1.0 0.1 0.0
9-5 8.7% 1.3    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
8-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 39.2% 39.2 27.4 9.5 2.0 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 2.6% 70.9% 67.0% 3.9% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.8 11.9%
13-1 7.0% 58.3% 57.7% 0.5% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8 2.1 0.9 0.1 2.9 1.2%
12-2 12.3% 47.9% 47.9% 0.0% 12.6 0.0 0.3 2.5 2.3 0.7 0.0 6.4 0.1%
11-3 15.9% 40.4% 40.4% 13.0 0.1 1.7 2.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 9.5
10-4 16.8% 32.5% 32.5% 13.5 0.0 0.5 2.3 1.9 0.7 0.1 11.4
9-5 15.2% 26.2% 26.2% 14.1 0.2 1.0 1.6 1.1 0.2 11.2
8-6 11.9% 17.4% 17.4% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.3 9.8
7-7 8.4% 5.1% 5.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 8.0
6-8 5.2% 0.6% 0.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1
5-9 2.7% 2.7
4-10 1.3% 1.3
3-11 0.5% 0.5
2-12 0.1% 0.1
1-13 0.0% 0.0
0-14 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 30.2% 30.1% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.6 7.6 9.7 6.6 3.1 0.7 69.8 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 6.1 2.1 4.1 23.7 12.4 24.7 13.4 3.1 6.2 3.1 5.2 2.1