New Mexico St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.6 #133
Expected Predictive Rating -1.2 #185
Pace 64.7 #288
Improvement -2.4 #289

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #110 C C B+ C F
Defense #200 B- D C- F B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #321 1.21 #119 -2.5 #272
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #46 0.79 #132 +3.3 #43
Three Pointers 39% #219 1.04 #154 -0.5 #195
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #169 +0.3 #169
Freethrows 17.0 #223 73% #166 12.4 #195
Second Chance 32.2% #139 1.03 #199 0.33 #152
Turnovers 14.1% #50
Total Offense +2.5 #110

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #309 1.15 #170 +2.8 #85
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #84 0.62 #21 +0.4 #162
Three Pointers 43% #130 1.03 #201 -1.0 #224
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #116 +2.2 #116
Freethrows 22.3 #347 78% #353 17.3 #361
Second Chance 30.1% #155 1.21 #342 0.36 #289
Turnovers 15.7% #228
Total Defense -0.9 #200

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.7% #327 -1.4% #71
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.3% #124 -2.9% #131
Possession Length 18.1 #252 17.6 #233
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #106 0.20 #260
Improvement +1.3 #113 -3.6 #342

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.4% 11.4% 7.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.3 13.7
.500 or above 72.4% 79.1% 53.7%
.500 or above in Conference 68.5% 75.7% 48.4%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.2% 1.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round10.4% 11.4% 7.5%
Second Round0.6% 0.6% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida International (Home) - 73.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 36 - 77 - 10
Quad 49 - 316 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 15 51 New Mexico W 76 - 68 28% +2  1 - 0 +16 +14 C A+ A+ +3 A+ D+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 249 Samford W 81 - 72 82% +10  2 - 0 +1 +12 A- A A- -10 B+ F F
 Tue, Nov 25 123 UC Irvine W 57 - 45 47% +5  3 - 0 +14 -10 F B F +25 A+ A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 273 Georgia St. W 77 - 58 77% +9  4 - 0 +13 +0 C D- A+ +12 B+ A+ C
 Tue, Dec 2 191 South Alabama L 75 - 77 64% +1  4 - 1 -4 +7 C D+ F -11 B- D- D-
 Sat, Dec 6 258 @Abilene Christian L 69 - 77 65% -5  4 - 2 -10 +4 D D C -15 F F B-
 Sat, Dec 13 70 Tulsa L 70 - 83 27% -13  4 - 3 -5 -3 F D- C+ -2 D+ F A+
 Sun, Dec 21 124 Sam Houston St. W 87 - 78 58% +13  5 - 3 1 - 0 +8 +8 A+ C- A+ -0 A+ B D+
 Fri, Jan 2 192 @Florida International L 74 - 89 53% -11  5 - 4 1 - 1 -14 +0 A+ F D+ -14 F F B
 Sun, Jan 4 179 @Missouri St. L 82 - 89 50% -8  5 - 5 1 - 2 -5 +8 B- C- C -13 D F B-
 Thu, Jan 8 162 Western Kentucky W 80 - 64 68% +16  6 - 5 2 - 2 +13 +11 D+ A+ B- +3 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 128 Middle Tennessee L 55 - 59 60% -0  6 - 6 2 - 3 -5 -13 D F D+ +7 A+ A D
 Thu, Jan 15 94 @Liberty L 71 - 73 25% -6  6 - 7 2 - 4 +7 +14 B C+ A+ -8 D B+ D-
 Sat, Jan 17 295 @Delaware W 97 - 68 73% +14  7 - 7 3 - 4 +24 +35 A+ A+ A+ -7 B- F F
 Thu, Jan 22 179 Missouri St. L 75 - 84 72% -5  7 - 8 3 - 5 -13 +6 F C+ A+ -20 F A- C
 Sat, Jan 24 192 Florida International W 81 - 74 74%
 Wed, Jan 28 295 Delaware W 74 - 62 88%
 Sat, Jan 31 150 @Kennesaw St. L 78 - 80 43%
 Wed, Feb 4 228 @Louisiana Tech W 66 - 64 60%
 Sat, Feb 7 256 @UTEP W 72 - 68 63%
 Wed, Feb 11 94 Liberty L 72 - 73 47%
 Sat, Feb 14 216 @Jacksonville St. W 70 - 68 58%
 Sat, Feb 21 256 UTEP W 75 - 65 81%
 Thu, Feb 26 162 @Western Kentucky L 76 - 77 46%
 Sat, Feb 28 128 @Middle Tennessee L 69 - 72 38%
 Thu, Mar 5 216 Jacksonville St. W 73 - 65 76%
 Sat, Mar 7 150 Kennesaw St. W 81 - 77 64%
Totals 14 - 13 10 - 10 +2 +3 C C B+ -1 B- D C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 3.4 2.4 0.4 7.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 6.3 4.4 0.8 0.0 13.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 7.9 6.1 1.1 0.0 16.4 4th
5th 0.5 6.0 7.6 1.4 0.1 15.6 5th
6th 0.1 3.3 8.5 2.4 0.1 14.4 6th
7th 1.2 6.6 3.6 0.2 11.5 7th
8th 0.4 3.7 4.4 0.5 9.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 3.4 0.7 5.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 2.0 0.9 0.0 3.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.1 1.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.5 9.2 15.6 20.0 20.2 15.4 8.9 3.5 0.5 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 24.8% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.5% 28.7% 28.7% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
14-6 3.5% 23.0% 23.0% 12.4 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.0 2.7
13-7 8.9% 22.1% 22.1% 12.8 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 7.0
12-8 15.4% 16.0% 16.0% 13.1 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.6 0.0 12.9
11-9 20.2% 11.0% 11.0% 13.3 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.8 0.1 18.0
10-10 20.0% 7.3% 7.3% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.2 18.5
9-11 15.6% 5.3% 5.3% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.0 14.8
8-12 9.2% 3.8% 3.8% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 8.9
7-13 4.5% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.4
6-14 1.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.6
5-15 0.4% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.4% 10.4% 0.0% 13.4 89.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.7 3.4 31.0 55.2 10.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%