Notre Dame
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.5#58
Expected Predictive Rating+13.8#37
Pace63.8#320
Improvement+0.9#122

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#67
First Shot+3.4#84
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#88
Layup/Dunks+2.1#107
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#296
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#119
Freethrows+1.5#96
Improvement+0.1#174

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#54
First Shot+4.0#58
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#150
Layups/Dunks+9.4#10
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#245
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#320
Freethrows-0.5#224
Improvement+0.7#126
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 4.1% 4.4% 1.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.5% 38.0% 22.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 35.8% 37.3% 21.8%
Average Seed 8.9 8.9 9.3
.500 or above 88.5% 90.2% 72.7%
.500 or above in Conference 55.9% 57.0% 45.8%
Conference Champion 1.2% 1.3% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 1.7% 2.8%
First Four8.4% 8.7% 5.8%
First Round32.0% 33.3% 19.5%
Second Round14.2% 14.9% 7.8%
Sweet Sixteen2.8% 3.0% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.9% 0.9% 0.2%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho (Home) - 90.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 44 - 10
Quad 24 - 38 - 12
Quad 34 - 112 - 13
Quad 47 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 227 LIU Brooklyn W 89-67 93%     1 - 0 +15.1 +11.5 +3.3
  Fri, Nov 7 293 Detroit Mercy W 102-70 96%     2 - 0 +21.6 +15.8 +3.3
  Tue, Nov 11 329 Eastern Illinois W 78-58 97%     3 - 0 +7.1 +12.2 -2.2
  Sun, Nov 16 24 @Ohio St. L 63-64 22%     3 - 1 +16.7 +1.1 +15.6
  Wed, Nov 19 292 Bellarmine W 86-79 96%     4 - 1 -3.3 +5.0 -8.3
  Mon, Nov 24 18 Kansas L 61-71 26%     4 - 2 +6.1 +1.9 +3.6
  Tue, Nov 25 123 Rutgers W 68-63 75%     5 - 2 +7.5 +5.7 +2.4
  Wed, Nov 26 8 Houston L 56-66 17%     5 - 3 +9.7 +4.4 +3.4
  Tue, Dec 2 37 Missouri W 76-71 49%     6 - 3 +14.8 +7.6 +7.3
  Fri, Dec 5 47 @TCU W 87-85 OT 34%     7 - 3 +15.8 +17.1 -1.4
  Wed, Dec 10 173 Idaho W 78-64 90%    
  Sat, Dec 13 265 Evansville W 77-59 96%    
  Sun, Dec 21 238 Purdue Fort Wayne W 83-66 94%    
  Tue, Dec 30 85 @Stanford W 73-72 51%    
  Fri, Jan 2 76 @California L 70-71 46%    
  Sat, Jan 10 33 Clemson L 68-69 47%    
  Tue, Jan 13 32 Miami (FL) L 71-72 46%    
  Sat, Jan 17 67 @Virginia Tech L 71-73 43%    
  Wed, Jan 21 22 @North Carolina L 69-77 22%    
  Sat, Jan 24 145 Boston College W 73-61 85%    
  Tue, Jan 27 23 Virginia L 70-72 41%    
  Sat, Jan 31 60 @Syracuse L 68-71 40%    
  Wed, Feb 4 13 @Louisville L 70-82 14%    
  Sat, Feb 7 101 Florida St. W 79-71 75%    
  Tue, Feb 10 40 @SMU L 71-76 31%    
  Sat, Feb 14 135 Georgia Tech W 75-64 83%    
  Sat, Feb 21 95 @Pittsburgh W 68-67 55%    
  Tue, Feb 24 3 Duke L 64-74 19%    
  Sat, Feb 28 36 North Carolina St. L 75-76 49%    
  Wed, Mar 4 85 Stanford W 76-70 71%    
  Sat, Mar 7 145 @Boston College W 70-64 69%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 2.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.4 1.9 0.7 0.0 4.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 2.7 1.3 0.1 5.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.5 2.3 0.3 6.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.7 3.9 0.7 0.0 7.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 4.9 2.0 0.1 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.4 4.1 0.5 9.5 8th
9th 0.1 2.3 5.4 1.2 0.0 9.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 4.8 3.0 0.2 8.9 10th
11th 0.2 2.8 4.1 0.7 0.0 7.9 11th
12th 0.0 1.3 4.4 1.8 0.1 7.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 3.0 2.8 0.2 0.0 6.4 13th
14th 0.1 1.5 2.9 0.7 0.0 5.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.3 0.1 4.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.2 2.6 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.8 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.6 5.3 8.9 11.8 13.9 15.3 14.0 11.3 7.4 4.5 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 80.8% 0.3    0.2 0.1
15-3 47.5% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 17.7% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.3% 100.0% 10.6% 89.4% 4.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.9% 100.0% 9.7% 90.3% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.3% 99.4% 6.3% 93.2% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.4%
13-5 4.5% 96.3% 4.0% 92.3% 7.4 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.2 96.2%
12-6 7.4% 89.5% 2.8% 86.7% 8.4 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.2 0.2 0.8 89.2%
11-7 11.3% 73.2% 1.6% 71.6% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.4 2.7 1.2 0.0 3.0 72.8%
10-8 14.0% 53.3% 0.7% 52.6% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.9 2.3 0.0 6.5 53.0%
9-9 15.3% 31.2% 0.5% 30.7% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.4 0.1 10.5 30.8%
8-10 13.9% 9.5% 0.1% 9.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.1 12.6 9.4%
7-11 11.8% 1.5% 0.1% 1.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.6 1.4%
6-12 8.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 8.9 0.0%
5-13 5.3% 5.3
4-14 2.6% 2.6
3-15 1.1% 1.1
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 36.5% 1.1% 35.4% 8.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.5 5.2 7.0 8.9 7.3 0.3 63.5 35.8%