Abilene Christian
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.8 #202
Expected Predictive Rating +0.7 #153
Pace 66.4 #264
Improvement +2.2 #66

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #273 D+ C+ C F D
Defense #134 F F B- A F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #151 1.05 #295 -1.6 #238
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #46 0.71 #228 +2.3 #67
Three Pointers 32% #332 1.04 #148 -4.0 #301
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #264 -3.2 #265
Freethrows 18.8 #109 73% #173 13.6 #115
Second Chance 35.6% #54 0.89 #327 0.32 #173
Turnovers 20.3% #344
Total Offense -3.7 #273

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #16 1.25 #274 -6.7 #352
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #285 0.76 #187 +1.3 #97
Three Pointers 37% #297 1.18 #340 -0.7 #208
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #336 -6.1 #336
Freethrows 29.1 #365 69% #80 20.2 #365
Second Chance 25.2% #30 1.09 #246 0.28 #81
Turnovers 20.6% #22
Total Defense +0.9 #134

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.8% #292 2.2% #335
Shot Type Make Effect -4.6% #239 9.7% #329
Possession Length 19.4 #350 16.4 #63
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #273 0.26 #350
Improvement +2.0 #47 +0.1 #174
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.1% 5.9% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.9
.500 or above 39.2% 46.9% 22.5%
.500 or above in Conference 45.2% 53.5% 27.4%
Conference Champion 3.4% 4.6% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 8.5% 5.3% 15.5%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.7%
First Round4.9% 5.8% 3.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Tech (Home) - 68.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 34 - 64 - 13
Quad 410 - 314 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 233 Nebraska Omaha W 73-71 66%     3.8   1 - 0 -5.0 -5.1 -1.6
  Fri, Nov 14 121 @Stephen F. Austin L 66-76 21%     -1.3   1 - 1 -4.2 +3.9 +0.5
  Tue, Nov 18 255 @Texas St. L 49-63 48%     -11.0   1 - 2 -16.3 -2.2 -2.3
  Mon, Nov 24 287 Texas San Antonio W 61-50 65%     6.8   2 - 2 +4.3 -1.6 -3.4
  Tue, Nov 25 112 William & Mary L 58-92 27%     -11.6   2 - 3 -30.5 -0.9 -0.1
  Tue, Dec 2 279 @Pepperdine W 71-63 52%     8.0   3 - 3 +4.6 +1.6 -3.7
  Sat, Dec 6 128 New Mexico St. W 77-69 42%     4.9   4 - 3 +7.2 +1.5 -1.0
  Tue, Dec 16 2 @Arizona L 62-96 1%     -20.8   4 - 4 -7.6 +11.6 +10.3
  Fri, Dec 19 10 @BYU L 67-85 2%     -5.1   4 - 5 +4.6 +8.6 +11.5
  Mon, Dec 22 325 @Texas Southern W 75-68 66%     -1.6   5 - 5 +0.1 -2.2 -3.8
  Thu, Jan 1 245 Utah Tech W 491-486 68%    
  Sat, Jan 3 87 Utah Valley L 484-490 28%    
  Thu, Jan 8 164 @Tarleton St. L 497-502 31%    
  Sat, Jan 10 179 @Texas Arlington L 457-462 33%    
  Thu, Jan 15 134 California Baptist L 476-478 44%    
  Sat, Jan 17 328 @Southern Utah W 498-494 65%    
  Sat, Jan 24 164 @Tarleton St. L 497-502 31%    
  Thu, Jan 29 245 Utah Tech W 491-486 68%    
  Sat, Jan 31 328 Southern Utah W 501-491 83%    
  Thu, Feb 5 87 @Utah Valley L 481-493 14%    
  Sat, Feb 7 134 @California Baptist L 473-481 25%    
  Thu, Feb 12 179 Texas Arlington W 460-459 55%    
  Sat, Feb 14 164 Tarleton St. W 500-499 53%    
  Sat, Feb 21 328 Southern Utah W 501-491 83%    
  Thu, Feb 26 245 @Utah Tech L 488-489 47%    
  Sat, Feb 28 87 @Utah Valley L 481-493 13%    
  Thu, Mar 5 134 @California Baptist L 473-481 25%    
  Sat, Mar 7 179 Texas Arlington W 460-459 55%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.9 3.5 1.7 0.4 0.1 11.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 4.1 6.9 4.4 1.2 0.1 17.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.3 7.1 8.1 3.2 0.6 21.7 4th
5th 0.2 1.2 5.0 8.5 6.7 1.8 0.1 23.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 2.8 5.2 5.8 2.6 0.5 0.0 17.7 6th
7th 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.8 7th
Total 0.2 0.7 2.2 4.5 7.2 11.4 13.5 15.1 14.1 11.9 9.0 5.4 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 84.3% 0.4    0.3 0.1
14-4 68.3% 1.0    0.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 35.9% 1.0    0.4 0.5 0.1
12-6 12.4% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
11-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.4% 3.4 1.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.5% 33.3% 33.3% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
14-4 1.4% 27.3% 27.3% 13.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0
13-5 2.8% 21.8% 21.8% 13.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 2.2
12-6 5.4% 15.0% 15.0% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 4.6
11-7 9.0% 10.6% 10.6% 14.1 0.1 0.6 0.3 8.0
10-8 11.9% 6.4% 6.4% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 11.1
9-9 14.1% 4.9% 4.9% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 13.4
8-10 15.1% 2.0% 2.0% 15.7 0.1 0.2 14.8
7-11 13.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 13.3
6-12 11.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 11.3
5-13 7.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 7.1
4-14 4.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.5
3-15 2.2% 2.2
2-16 0.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18
Total 100% 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.8 1.6 0.7 94.9 0.0%