Abilene Christian
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#215
Expected Predictive Rating-0.2#175
Pace64.6#306
Improvement+2.5#39

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#278
First Shot-6.0#334
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#65
Layup/Dunks-3.7#304
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#54
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#261
Freethrows-2.4#314
Improvement+2.8#16

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#154
First Shot-2.2#242
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#37
Layups/Dunks-0.4#191
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#29
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#134
Freethrows-5.6#363
Improvement-0.3#213
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.9% 12.3% 4.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 13.8 14.5
.500 or above 32.9% 65.4% 32.7%
.500 or above in Conference 42.6% 63.1% 42.6%
Conference Champion 3.2% 12.3% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 12.8% 7.7% 12.9%
First Four0.6% 0.8% 0.6%
First Round4.7% 11.5% 4.6%
Second Round0.2% 0.8% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arizona (Away) - 0.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 31 - 6
Quad 33 - 64 - 12
Quad 410 - 413 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 233 Nebraska Omaha W 73-71 64%     1 - 0 -5.2 -3.8 -1.3
  Fri, Nov 14 142 @Stephen F. Austin L 66-76 23%     1 - 1 -5.8 -0.4 -5.8
  Tue, Nov 18 237 @Texas St. L 49-63 42%     1 - 2 -15.3 -17.3 +0.5
  Mon, Nov 24 277 Texas San Antonio W 61-50 60%     2 - 2 +4.9 -5.2 +11.5
  Tue, Nov 25 119 William & Mary L 58-92 26%     2 - 3 -30.9 -16.7 -12.1
  Tue, Dec 2 311 @Pepperdine W 71-63 57%     3 - 3 +2.6 +6.8 -3.1
  Sat, Dec 6 127 New Mexico St. W 77-69 39%     4 - 3 +7.3 +12.1 -4.0
  Tue, Dec 16 5 @Arizona L 58-86 0.4%   
  Fri, Dec 19 9 @BYU L 57-83 1%    
  Mon, Dec 22 305 @Texas Southern W 71-69 56%    
  Thu, Jan 1 257 Utah Tech W 70-65 67%    
  Sat, Jan 3 83 Utah Valley L 65-72 26%    
  Thu, Jan 8 201 @Tarleton St. L 67-71 36%    
  Sat, Jan 10 191 @Texas Arlington L 64-69 34%    
  Thu, Jan 15 131 California Baptist L 65-68 41%    
  Sat, Jan 17 320 @Southern Utah W 70-68 58%    
  Sat, Jan 24 201 @Tarleton St. L 67-71 36%    
  Thu, Jan 29 257 Utah Tech W 70-65 67%    
  Sat, Jan 31 320 Southern Utah W 73-65 78%    
  Thu, Feb 5 83 @Utah Valley L 62-75 12%    
  Sat, Feb 7 131 @California Baptist L 62-71 23%    
  Thu, Feb 12 191 Texas Arlington W 67-66 55%    
  Sat, Feb 14 201 Tarleton St. W 70-68 57%    
  Sat, Feb 21 320 Southern Utah W 73-65 77%    
  Thu, Feb 26 257 @Utah Tech L 67-68 46%    
  Sat, Feb 28 83 @Utah Valley L 62-75 13%    
  Thu, Mar 5 131 @California Baptist L 62-71 22%    
  Sat, Mar 7 191 Texas Arlington W 67-66 55%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.2 1st
2nd 0.3 1.4 3.4 3.5 1.8 0.6 0.1 11.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 5.0 6.4 4.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 18.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.6 7.6 7.3 2.6 0.5 0.0 22.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 5.8 7.8 4.9 1.1 0.1 21.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 2.8 5.2 4.9 2.1 0.3 0.0 16.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.2 2.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 7.8 7th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.9 5.3 8.3 11.4 13.7 14.2 13.6 10.6 8.1 5.2 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 87.4% 0.6    0.4 0.1
14-4 58.4% 0.8    0.5 0.3 0.0
13-5 31.0% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 10.0% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.2% 3.2 1.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 29.4% 29.4% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.6% 29.5% 29.5% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-4 1.4% 24.3% 24.3% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1
13-5 2.9% 21.1% 21.1% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 2.3
12-6 5.2% 15.8% 15.8% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 4.4
11-7 8.1% 10.3% 10.3% 14.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 7.2
10-8 10.6% 6.7% 6.7% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 9.8
9-9 13.6% 4.3% 4.3% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 13.1
8-10 14.2% 2.3% 2.3% 15.8 0.1 0.3 13.9
7-11 13.7% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 13.4
6-12 11.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 11.3
5-13 8.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 8.2
4-14 5.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.3
3-15 2.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.9
2-16 1.2% 1.2
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 14.5 0.1 0.8 1.5 1.6 1.0 95.1 0.0%