Iowa St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+16.2#18
Expected Predictive Rating-1.9#289
Pace70.5#124
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.8#41
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+9.5#2
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 4.6% 4.7% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 11.0% 11.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 27.8% 28.0% 5.8%
Top 6 Seed 45.9% 46.1% 13.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 77.4% 77.6% 43.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 75.5% 75.7% 43.5%
Average Seed 5.7 5.7 7.7
.500 or above 93.7% 93.9% 67.4%
.500 or above in Conference 81.6% 81.8% 55.8%
Conference Champion 9.7% 9.8% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.6% 4.3%
First Four4.2% 4.1% 7.2%
First Round75.5% 75.8% 40.6%
Second Round57.3% 57.5% 26.1%
Sweet Sixteen30.0% 30.1% 11.6%
Elite Eight14.7% 14.8% 2.2%
Final Four7.0% 7.1% 0.7%
Championship Game3.3% 3.3% 0.0%
National Champion1.4% 1.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Grambling St. (Home) - 99.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 8
Quad 25 - 112 - 10
Quad 33 - 015 - 10
Quad 47 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 348   Fairleigh Dickinson W 88-50 99%     1 - 0 +23.1 +7.8 +15.0
  Nov 06, 2025 286   Grambling St. W 79-53 99%    
  Nov 10, 2025 32   Mississippi St. W 74-71 61%    
  Nov 17, 2025 334   Stonehill W 82-53 99.6%   
  Nov 24, 2025 11   St. John's L 74-76 43%    
  Nov 25, 2025 25   Creighton W 73-71 56%    
  Dec 03, 2025 331   Alcorn St. W 82-53 99.5%   
  Dec 06, 2025 2   @ Purdue L 66-76 20%    
  Dec 11, 2025 34   Iowa W 78-72 70%    
  Dec 14, 2025 322   Eastern Illinois W 82-54 99%    
  Dec 21, 2025 264   Long Beach St. W 80-55 98%    
  Dec 29, 2025 285   Houston Christian W 81-55 99%    
  Jan 02, 2026 63   West Virginia W 73-62 82%    
  Jan 07, 2026 29   @ Baylor L 72-73 47%    
  Jan 10, 2026 66   Oklahoma St. W 81-70 82%    
  Jan 13, 2026 13   @ Kansas L 69-73 36%    
  Jan 17, 2026 42   @ Cincinnati W 71-70 53%    
  Jan 20, 2026 83   Central Florida W 83-70 87%    
  Jan 24, 2026 66   @ Oklahoma St. W 78-73 66%    
  Jan 29, 2026 95   Colorado W 78-64 88%    
  Feb 01, 2026 62   @ Kansas St. W 72-67 65%    
  Feb 07, 2026 29   Baylor W 75-70 67%    
  Feb 10, 2026 85   @ TCU W 72-65 72%    
  Feb 14, 2026 13   Kansas W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 16, 2026 1   Houston L 62-66 36%    
  Feb 21, 2026 12   @ BYU L 71-76 35%    
  Feb 24, 2026 82   @ Utah W 77-70 71%    
  Feb 28, 2026 16   Texas Tech W 72-70 57%    
  Mar 02, 2026 9   @ Arizona L 73-78 33%    
  Mar 07, 2026 75   Arizona St. W 78-66 84%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.2 2.9 1.8 0.5 9.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.5 3.5 0.9 0.0 11.9 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.9 5.5 3.1 0.6 0.0 12.5 3rd
4th 0.3 2.5 5.6 3.0 0.4 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.2 1.6 5.0 3.5 0.5 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.2 3.8 0.7 0.0 9.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.0 3.7 1.0 0.0 8.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 3.7 1.4 0.1 7.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.9 1.7 0.2 5.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.1 10th
11th 0.1 1.0 1.6 0.5 0.0 3.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.6 0.0 2.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 1.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.2 4.9 7.3 9.9 11.4 12.9 13.2 11.8 9.3 7.2 3.8 1.8 0.5 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 97.6% 1.8    1.5 0.3 0.0
16-2 75.8% 2.9    1.8 1.0 0.1
15-3 43.7% 3.2    1.2 1.4 0.5 0.1
14-4 13.5% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.7% 9.7 5.2 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 100.0% 40.9% 59.1% 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.8% 100.0% 35.5% 64.5% 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.8% 100.0% 25.5% 74.5% 2.0 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 7.2% 100.0% 20.5% 79.5% 2.8 1.1 2.2 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 9.3% 100.0% 15.1% 84.9% 3.7 0.6 1.5 2.3 2.4 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 11.8% 99.6% 10.8% 88.8% 4.8 0.1 0.6 1.9 2.6 2.7 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
12-6 13.2% 97.9% 7.0% 90.9% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 2.7 2.7 2.5 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.3 97.8%
11-7 12.9% 94.1% 3.6% 90.6% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.2 2.8 2.4 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.8 93.9%
10-8 11.4% 82.7% 2.0% 80.6% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 2.2 2.0 1.7 0.5 0.0 2.0 82.3%
9-9 9.9% 59.7% 1.3% 58.4% 9.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 1.4 1.7 0.9 0.0 4.0 59.2%
8-10 7.3% 29.8% 0.7% 29.1% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.0 0.0 5.1 29.3%
7-11 4.9% 10.8% 0.2% 10.6% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 4.4 10.7%
6-12 3.2% 1.7% 0.2% 1.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 3.1 1.6%
5-13 1.8% 0.3% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 1.7
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 77.4% 7.8% 69.6% 5.7 4.6 6.3 8.2 8.7 9.2 8.8 8.9 8.0 6.3 5.6 2.7 0.1 0.0 22.6 75.5%