BYU
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+17.9#12
Expected Predictive Rating+24.9#2
Pace68.4#193
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+11.3#5
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#26
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.2% 3.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 14.4% 14.5% 2.2%
Top 2 Seed 30.6% 30.7% 4.4%
Top 4 Seed 57.7% 57.8% 13.3%
Top 6 Seed 75.8% 75.9% 28.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 93.0% 93.1% 62.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92.1% 92.2% 60.5%
Average Seed 4.2 4.1 6.5
.500 or above 98.0% 98.0% 82.2%
.500 or above in Conference 88.2% 88.3% 60.0%
Conference Champion 14.9% 14.9% 6.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 2.2%
First Four2.7% 2.7% 2.2%
First Round91.8% 91.8% 60.0%
Second Round77.6% 77.7% 42.2%
Sweet Sixteen47.4% 47.5% 17.8%
Elite Eight24.7% 24.8% 6.7%
Final Four12.3% 12.3% 2.2%
Championship Game6.0% 6.0% 0.0%
National Champion2.9% 2.9% 0.0%

Next Game: Holy Cross (Home) - 99.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 7
Quad 26 - 114 - 8
Quad 35 - 019 - 9
Quad 46 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 44   Villanova W 71-66 72%     1 - 0 +16.9 +6.4 +10.6
  Nov 08, 2025 329   Holy Cross W 90-59 99.8%   
  Nov 11, 2025 258   Delaware W 91-65 99%    
  Nov 15, 2025 4   Connecticut L 70-73 37%    
  Nov 21, 2025 21   Wisconsin W 76-73 61%    
  Nov 27, 2025 54   Miami (FL) W 79-71 76%    
  Nov 28, 2025 59   Dayton W 76-67 78%    
  Dec 03, 2025 186   California Baptist W 82-62 96%    
  Dec 08, 2025 41   Clemson W 72-66 69%    
  Dec 13, 2025 271   UC Riverside W 86-59 99%    
  Dec 16, 2025 214   Pacific W 85-61 98%    
  Dec 19, 2025 178   Abilene Christian W 84-62 97%    
  Dec 22, 2025 207   Eastern Washington W 86-63 98%    
  Jan 03, 2026 62   @ Kansas St. W 75-69 70%    
  Jan 07, 2026 75   Arizona St. W 82-68 88%    
  Jan 10, 2026 82   @ Utah W 80-71 77%    
  Jan 14, 2026 85   TCU W 79-64 90%    
  Jan 17, 2026 16   @ Texas Tech L 72-74 43%    
  Jan 24, 2026 82   Utah W 83-68 89%    
  Jan 26, 2026 9   Arizona W 79-77 58%    
  Jan 31, 2026 13   @ Kansas L 73-75 42%    
  Feb 04, 2026 66   @ Oklahoma St. W 82-75 71%    
  Feb 07, 2026 1   Houston L 65-68 41%    
  Feb 10, 2026 29   @ Baylor W 75-74 54%    
  Feb 14, 2026 95   Colorado W 82-66 91%    
  Feb 18, 2026 9   @ Arizona L 76-80 38%    
  Feb 21, 2026 18   Iowa St. W 76-71 65%    
  Feb 24, 2026 83   Central Florida W 87-72 89%    
  Feb 28, 2026 63   @ West Virginia W 73-66 71%    
  Mar 03, 2026 42   @ Cincinnati W 74-71 59%    
  Mar 07, 2026 16   Texas Tech W 75-71 62%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.3 4.7 3.1 0.7 14.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.0 6.3 4.6 1.3 0.1 15.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.8 6.2 3.9 0.6 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.2 2.4 5.6 3.4 0.4 12.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 4.9 3.5 0.5 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.7 3.6 0.7 0.0 8.9 6th
7th 0.3 2.5 3.4 0.8 0.0 7.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 2.8 1.0 0.1 5.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.2 0.1 4.0 9th
10th 0.2 1.2 1.3 0.2 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.2 5.4 7.7 10.0 12.1 13.2 13.4 12.3 9.5 6.0 3.3 0.7 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 96.3% 3.1    2.8 0.4 0.0
16-2 78.7% 4.7    3.0 1.6 0.1 0.0
15-3 44.9% 4.3    1.6 1.9 0.7 0.1
14-4 13.9% 1.7    0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 2.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.9% 14.9 8.5 4.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 100.0% 44.3% 55.7% 1.2 0.6 0.1 100.0%
17-1 3.3% 100.0% 37.4% 62.6% 1.3 2.4 0.8 0.0 100.0%
16-2 6.0% 100.0% 33.2% 66.8% 1.5 3.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-3 9.5% 100.0% 23.3% 76.7% 1.8 3.7 3.9 1.6 0.3 0.1 100.0%
14-4 12.3% 100.0% 17.2% 82.8% 2.4 2.6 4.5 3.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.4% 100.0% 11.8% 88.2% 3.1 1.1 3.4 4.1 3.0 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 13.2% 100.0% 6.6% 93.4% 4.1 0.2 1.3 3.3 3.8 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 12.1% 99.5% 4.9% 94.6% 5.1 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.7 3.2 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.5%
10-8 10.0% 98.0% 3.0% 95.0% 6.3 0.0 0.4 1.0 2.0 2.4 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.2 97.9%
9-9 7.7% 93.9% 1.6% 92.2% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.5 93.8%
8-10 5.4% 73.2% 0.9% 72.2% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.0 1.5 72.9%
7-11 3.2% 40.6% 0.9% 39.6% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.0 1.9 40.0%
6-12 1.8% 15.5% 0.6% 14.9% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.5 15.0%
5-13 0.9% 2.4% 0.6% 1.8% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.8%
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 93.0% 11.5% 81.6% 4.2 14.4 16.2 14.5 12.5 10.3 7.7 5.3 3.7 3.4 2.9 1.8 0.1 7.0 92.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 76.9 23.1