Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.9 #300
Expected Predictive Rating -7.9 #297
Pace 65.2 #279
Improvement -2.1 #278

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #136 B+ F C- B+ A-
Defense #361 F F C- C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #47 1.30 #50 +6.2 #17
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #327 0.72 #225 -3.2 #329
Three Pointers 44% #135 1.05 #145 +1.9 #116
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #53 +5.0 #52
Freethrows 19.6 #87 76% #58 15.0 #58
Second Chance 19.8% #363 1.03 #191 0.20 #358
Turnovers 17.1% #224
Total Offense +0.9 #136

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #319 1.39 #364 -0.5 #193
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #279 0.78 #210 +1.0 #119
Three Pointers 50% #13 1.21 #361 -9.3 #363
1st FG Attempt 1.19 #362 -8.8 #362
Freethrows 18.2 #215 72% #175 13.1 #209
Second Chance 35.5% #330 1.15 #302 0.41 #345
Turnovers 15.5% #235
Total Defense -8.8 #361

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.8% #26 0.0% #159
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.7% #78 17.2% #365
Possession Length 19.0 #332 16.8 #96
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #249 0.15 #104
Improvement -0.5 #207 -1.5 #276

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 2.5% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.9
.500 or above 1.9% 3.0% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 20.2% 29.2% 8.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.8% 3.9% 19.7%
First Four1.7% 1.9% 1.4%
First Round1.2% 1.5% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Florida (Away) - 56.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 10
Quad 410 - 911 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 24 @Georgia L 59 - 104 1% -18  0 - 1 -26 -10 B- F F -12 F A+ F
 Sat, Nov 8 85 @Kansas St. L 71 - 98 6% -11  0 - 2 -17 +2 D+ C+ C -18 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 215 Wofford L 86 - 94 44% -8  0 - 3 -14 +7 B- B+ A+ -21 F A+ B
 Wed, Nov 19 84 @Notre Dame L 79 - 86 6% -9  0 - 4 +3 +12 A+ F F -9 F F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 351 @The Citadel W 70 - 58 57% +5  1 - 4 +2 +3 C+ F B- +2 A+ F C+
 Tue, Nov 25 298 Houston Christian W 74 - 69 50% -1  2 - 4 -3 +6 A+ F D+ -8 C- F F
 Sat, Dec 6 97 @Murray St. L 68 - 81 7% -13  2 - 5 -5 +1 A+ F C- -7 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 178 Northern Kentucky L 76 - 80 36% -6  2 - 6 -8 +1 A- F F -9 F B- F
 Wed, Dec 17 247 Chattanooga W 79 - 64 50% -1  3 - 6 +7 +4 B F F +3 A+ D+ F
 Tue, Dec 23 25 @Kentucky L 85 - 99 1% -8  3 - 7 +5 +25 A+ A+ C- -21 F F C+
 Thu, Jan 1 338 @West Georgia L 85 - 87 52% -6  3 - 8 0 - 1 -10 +9 A+ F A -19 F C+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 177 @Queens L 76 - 98 18% -10  3 - 9 0 - 2 -20 -2 A+ F F -18 F F C
 Thu, Jan 8 236 Central Arkansas W 84 - 78 OT 47% -0  4 - 9 1 - 2 -1 +3 A+ F B- -5 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 328 North Alabama L 73 - 82 70% -1  4 - 10 1 - 3 -22 +4 A- F C+ -28 F C D
 Thu, Jan 15 174 @Lipscomb L 71 - 81 18% -14  4 - 11 1 - 4 -8 +4 F D+ A+ -13 F F B+
 Sat, Jan 17 254 @Eastern Kentucky L 69 - 89 29% -11  4 - 12 1 - 5 -22 -0 F F C -24 F F B-
 Thu, Jan 22 292 @Jacksonville W 77 - 70 37% +1  5 - 12 2 - 5 +2 +13 A+ C F -9 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 24 350 @North Florida W 87 - 85 56%
 Wed, Jan 28 338 West Georgia W 82 - 76 74%
 Sat, Jan 31 177 Queens L 80 - 84 37%
 Thu, Feb 5 332 Stetson W 80 - 74 71%
 Sat, Feb 7 225 Florida Gulf Coast L 79 - 80 46%
 Thu, Feb 12 236 @Central Arkansas L 72 - 79 27%
 Sat, Feb 14 171 @Austin Peay L 71 - 81 18%
 Wed, Feb 18 174 Lipscomb L 76 - 80 36%
 Sat, Feb 21 254 Eastern Kentucky W 80 - 79 50%
 Wed, Feb 25 328 @North Alabama L 76 - 77 48%
 Sat, Feb 28 171 Austin Peay L 74 - 78 36%
Totals 10 - 18 7 - 11 -8 +1 B+ F C- -9 F F C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 2.0 1.1 0.1 4.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 4.6 3.1 0.3 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 6.5 4.9 0.7 0.0 13.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 6.6 8.1 1.3 0.0 16.6 7th
8th 0.2 4.5 9.6 2.2 0.1 16.5 8th
9th 0.0 2.2 8.6 3.5 0.2 14.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 6.0 4.8 0.4 0.0 12.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 3.0 3.7 0.5 0.0 7.7 11th
12th 0.2 1.4 2.1 0.6 0.0 4.4 12th
Total 0.3 1.9 6.1 12.8 18.9 21.5 18.4 11.7 6.0 2.0 0.5 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 21.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.5% 8.6% 8.6% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.5
11-7 2.0% 8.3% 8.3% 15.5 0.1 0.1 1.8
10-8 6.0% 6.2% 6.2% 15.9 0.0 0.3 5.6
9-9 11.7% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.5 11.2
8-10 18.4% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4 18.0
7-11 21.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.3 21.3
6-12 18.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 18.7
5-13 12.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 12.7
4-14 6.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.1
3-15 1.9% 1.9
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 15.9 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%