Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.6#340
Expected Predictive Rating-17.7#358
Pace65.9#241
Improvement+4.8#24

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#219
First Shot+0.2#165
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#292
Layup/Dunks+1.6#123
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#357
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#107
Freethrows+0.4#155
Improvement+2.9#52

Defense
Total Defense-9.9#362
First Shot-8.6#359
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#294
Layups/Dunks-5.5#347
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#49
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.9#349
Freethrows+1.1#105
Improvement+1.9#85
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 97.5% 94.4% 100.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stetson (Away) - 44.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 30 - 70 - 12
Quad 43 - 134 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 34   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 65-84 1%     0 - 1 -3.3 +3.9 -8.1
  Nov 09, 2024 309   VMI L 71-76 48%     0 - 2 -16.0 -5.2 -10.9
  Nov 13, 2024 343   Southern Indiana L 69-71 62%     0 - 3 -16.8 -8.9 -8.0
  Nov 16, 2024 190   @ Marshall L 62-83 12%     0 - 4 -20.1 -10.3 -9.9
  Nov 19, 2024 21   @ Louisville L 68-100 1%     0 - 5 -13.7 +0.1 -12.2
  Nov 23, 2024 301   Bowling Green W 80-68 45%     1 - 5 +1.6 +4.7 -2.7
  Nov 30, 2024 241   @ Northern Kentucky L 70-86 18%     1 - 6 -17.9 -0.9 -17.4
  Dec 04, 2024 333   @ Western Carolina L 74-86 37%     1 - 7 -20.2 -2.8 -17.3
  Dec 14, 2024 261   Ball St. L 82-86 36%     1 - 8 -12.0 +10.3 -22.7
  Dec 19, 2024 166   @ Wyoming L 55-92 10%     1 - 9 -34.7 -8.9 -29.8
  Dec 21, 2024 91   @ Colorado L 55-79 4%     1 - 10 -15.9 -13.0 -2.5
  Jan 02, 2025 134   @ North Alabama L 66-82 8%     1 - 11 0 - 1 -12.1 +0.6 -14.4
  Jan 04, 2025 344   @ Central Arkansas L 65-71 43%     1 - 12 0 - 2 -15.7 -9.5 -6.5
  Jan 09, 2025 193   Jacksonville L 59-74 25%     1 - 13 0 - 3 -19.4 -4.4 -17.3
  Jan 11, 2025 266   North Florida L 83-98 37%     1 - 14 0 - 4 -23.1 +6.0 -29.8
  Jan 16, 2025 101   Lipscomb L 53-87 11%     1 - 15 0 - 5 -32.1 -15.6 -18.7
  Jan 18, 2025 191   @ Eastern Kentucky L 69-72 13%     1 - 16 0 - 6 -2.3 +0.9 -3.5
  Jan 23, 2025 180   Florida Gulf Coast L 61-77 22%     1 - 17 0 - 7 -19.6 -7.6 -14.0
  Jan 25, 2025 349   Stetson L 76-81 64%     1 - 18 0 - 8 -20.4 -4.4 -16.1
  Jan 30, 2025 276   @ Austin Peay L 77-86 OT 23%     1 - 19 0 - 9 -12.9 -2.5 -9.8
  Feb 01, 2025 101   @ Lipscomb L 80-87 5%     1 - 20 0 - 10 +0.0 +13.7 -14.0
  Feb 06, 2025 266   @ North Florida L 88-95 21%     1 - 21 0 - 11 -10.0 +2.2 -11.6
  Feb 08, 2025 193   @ Jacksonville L 64-73 13%     1 - 22 0 - 12 -8.3 +0.3 -9.5
  Feb 13, 2025 231   Queens L 87-92 OT 31%     1 - 23 0 - 13 -11.4 +3.0 -14.0
  Feb 15, 2025 348   West Georgia L 76-81 64%     1 - 24 0 - 14 -20.3 -2.5 -18.0
  Feb 18, 2025 276   Austin Peay W 94-68 40%     2 - 24 1 - 14 +17.0 +17.1 -0.2
  Feb 20, 2025 191   Eastern Kentucky W 80-74 24%     3 - 24 2 - 14 +1.6 +5.3 -3.4
  Feb 24, 2025 349   @ Stetson L 77-78 44%    
  Feb 26, 2025 180   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 67-80 10%    
Projected Record 4 - 25 3 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 3.9 3.9 10th
11th 19.7 1.2 20.9 11th
12th 50.4 24.8 0.1 75.3 12th
Total 50.4 44.5 5.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14 5.1% 5.1
3-15 44.5% 44.5
2-16 50.4% 50.4
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.1%
Lose Out 50.4%