Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.5#353
Expected Predictive Rating-20.4#362
Pace64.5#285
Improvement-2.2#280

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#262
First Shot-1.3#214
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#301
Layup/Dunks+0.9#141
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#357
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#125
Freethrows+0.1#166
Improvement-0.6#217

Defense
Total Defense-10.0#362
First Shot-8.7#361
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#291
Layups/Dunks-5.6#351
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#50
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.9#350
Freethrows+1.2#101
Improvement-1.6#271
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 61.3% 38.9% 65.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Gulf Coast (Home) - 16.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 30 - 70 - 12
Quad 44 - 134 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 50   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 65-84 1%     0 - 1 -5.5 +3.1 -9.6
  Nov 09, 2024 329   VMI L 71-76 49%     0 - 2 -18.1 -7.5 -10.6
  Nov 13, 2024 324   Southern Indiana L 69-71 47%     0 - 3 -14.6 -7.6 -7.0
  Nov 16, 2024 178   @ Marshall L 62-83 8%     0 - 4 -19.1 -9.3 -9.9
  Nov 19, 2024 27   @ Louisville L 68-100 1%     0 - 5 -15.5 -1.1 -12.8
  Nov 23, 2024 288   Bowling Green W 80-68 36%     1 - 5 +2.1 +4.9 -2.5
  Nov 30, 2024 234   @ Northern Kentucky L 70-86 13%     1 - 6 -17.5 +0.8 -18.7
  Dec 04, 2024 341   @ Western Carolina L 74-86 33%     1 - 7 -20.8 -1.4 -19.2
  Dec 14, 2024 249   Ball St. L 82-86 29%     1 - 8 -11.7 +11.3 -23.3
  Dec 19, 2024 187   @ Wyoming L 55-92 9%     1 - 9 -35.4 -10.4 -29.0
  Dec 21, 2024 95   @ Colorado L 55-79 3%     1 - 10 -15.3 -13.2 -1.7
  Jan 02, 2025 163   @ North Alabama L 66-82 7%     1 - 11 0 - 1 -13.1 +0.5 -15.4
  Jan 04, 2025 338   @ Central Arkansas L 65-71 32%     1 - 12 0 - 2 -14.7 -8.5 -6.5
  Jan 09, 2025 184   Jacksonville L 59-74 18%     1 - 13 0 - 3 -18.8 -3.7 -17.4
  Jan 11, 2025 246   North Florida L 83-98 28%     1 - 14 0 - 4 -22.4 +5.0 -28.0
  Jan 16, 2025 92   Lipscomb L 53-87 7%     1 - 15 0 - 5 -30.6 -15.1 -17.6
  Jan 18, 2025 247   @ Eastern Kentucky L 69-72 15%     1 - 16 0 - 6 -5.1 -0.2 -5.2
  Jan 23, 2025 168   Florida Gulf Coast L 65-75 16%    
  Jan 25, 2025 348   Stetson W 76-75 56%    
  Jan 30, 2025 300   @ Austin Peay L 64-72 21%    
  Feb 01, 2025 92   @ Lipscomb L 62-84 2%    
  Feb 06, 2025 246   @ North Florida L 76-88 14%    
  Feb 08, 2025 184   @ Jacksonville L 63-78 7%    
  Feb 13, 2025 210   Queens L 73-81 22%    
  Feb 15, 2025 349   West Georgia W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 18, 2025 300   Austin Peay L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 20, 2025 247   Eastern Kentucky L 73-79 31%    
  Feb 24, 2025 348   @ Stetson L 74-78 36%    
  Feb 26, 2025 168   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 62-78 7%    
Projected Record 4 - 25 3 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 1.8 0.8 0.1 3.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 4.9 2.2 0.3 9.3 9th
10th 0.1 2.4 7.8 4.4 0.5 15.2 10th
11th 0.6 5.7 13.2 8.2 0.9 0.0 28.6 11th
12th 3.3 12.0 16.8 8.4 1.5 0.0 42.0 12th
Total 3.3 12.6 22.7 24.0 19.3 11.2 4.8 1.7 0.4 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.1% 0.1
8-10 0.4% 0.4
7-11 1.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.7
6-12 4.8% 4.8
5-13 11.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.2
4-14 19.3% 19.3
3-15 24.0% 24.0
2-16 22.7% 22.7
1-17 12.6% 12.6
0-18 3.3% 3.3
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.3%