Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -1.7 183
Results Rating -2.3 202
Consistency 0.13 55
Pace 72.8 64
Improvement -1.4 236

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 193 C- C C C- B
Defense C 194 C- D- B C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 148 C+ 59% 133 +1.1 133
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% 305 D 34% 303 -3.1 319
Three Pointers 46% 71 D 30% 316 +0.3 171
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +0.9 69 D+ -2.5 267
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 226
Second Chance C 29.4% 204 C+ 1.06 131 C 0.31 170
Opponents' Steals C+ 8.8% 110
Other Turnovers D 8.3% 306
Turnovers C 17.0% 204
Freethrows C 0.30 202 C- 71% 246 C- 0.21 213
Total Offense C- -1.1 193

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D+ 41% 295 B- 9.0% 75
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 20% 248 C+ 4.5% 153
Three Pointers B- 88% 103 B- 0.6% 98
Total C- 54% 201 B 4.4% 51


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 114 C 58% 173 +1.4 222
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 222 C 39% 205 -0.5 147
Three Pointers 40% 221 D+ 36% 276 +0.6 215
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.4 241 C- +1.1 222
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 230
Second Chance D 33.3% 301 F+ 1.17 350 D- 0.39 339
Turnovers from Steals B+ 12.1% 29
Other Turnovers C 7.1% 199
Turnovers B 19.2% 47
Freethrows D+ 0.33 278 B 70% 51 C- 0.23 246
Total Defense C -0.5 194

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 215 C 11.7% 143
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 34% 314 C- 3.8% 240
Three Pointers B 79% 53 C- 0.7% 206
Total C 56% 200 C 5.8% 158

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.1 53 17.6 231
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 11 0.18 233
Consistency 0.13 202 0.10 44
Improvement -1.2 251 -0.3 205

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 204 190 171
Results Rating Rank 227 220 147
Conference Record 10 - 10 10 - 10 10 - 10
Conference Finish 7 7 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11% 27% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.8 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round11% 27% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 93 - 11
Quad 414 - 317 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 14 @Tennessee L 56 - 95 3% -18  4% 0 - 1 F+ -17 D- -7 D A- F+ F -10 F+ D+ C
 Wed, Nov 12 140 @East Tennessee St. L 63 - 75 29% -8  0% 0 - 2 D+ -8 F -12 F F F B +5 F A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 20 259 @Central Michigan W 90 - 66 54% +13  99% 1 - 2 A +21 A+ +15 B+ A+ C+ A- +7 C+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 294 Eastern Kentucky W 82 - 71 81% +4  78% 2 - 2 C +0 D+ -4 D- A C- B +4 B- D- B
 Wed, Nov 26 240 Wofford W 93 - 83 71% +2  61% 3 - 2 C+ +2 B +6 C B+ B+ D+ -4 B- C C
 Sat, Nov 29 255 Boston University W 74 - 65 74% -2  25% 4 - 2 C +1 C -0 F A+ F B- +2 D D- A+
 Wed, Dec 3 322 Cleveland St. W 95 - 80 86% +8  95% 5 - 2 1 - 0 C+ +2 B +6 B+ A+ F D+ -4 F+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 258 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 77 - 79 53% +2  54% 5 - 3 1 - 1 C- -4 D -5 F+ D+ F C+ +1 F B A+
 Sat, Dec 13 285 @Bellarmine W 80 - 76 59% +6  75% 6 - 3 C +0 D -5 C F+ C+ B+ +6 D+ C+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 171 Oakland L 77 - 82 59% -2  20% 6 - 4 1 - 2 D -9 D- -7 D- D+ B- C -1 C+ B+ C-
 Sun, Dec 21 144 College of Charleston L 74 - 85 51% -4  6% 6 - 5 D- -13 D -5 C D+ F D- -7 F D- A-
 Mon, Dec 29 155 @Robert Morris W 79 - 77 31% -1  47% 7 - 5 2 - 2 B- +5 B- +4 B D C- C+ +1 C- F B+
 Thu, Jan 1 327 IU Indianapolis W 81 - 72 87% -3  25% 8 - 5 3 - 2 C- -5 D+ -3 C D B+ C -1 C- F A
 Sun, Jan 4 217 Youngstown St. W 94 - 79 68% +15  98% 9 - 5 4 - 2 B +9 B +6 B+ B+ C+ C+ +1 A- C F
 Fri, Jan 9 274 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 85 - 67 56% +13  95% 10 - 5 5 - 2 A- +15 A+ +15 F+ A+ B C+ +1 C+ D+ D+
 Sun, Jan 11 210 @Green Bay L 78 - 80 42% -13  0% 10 - 6 5 - 3 C- -2 A +12 C+ F+ A+ F -14 F D- C-
 Thu, Jan 15 229 Detroit Mercy W 96 - 71 69% +12  99% 11 - 6 6 - 3 A +18 A- +10 A+ C B A- +7 A F F
 Sat, Jan 17 155 Robert Morris L 89 - 92 OT 54% -3  17% 11 - 7 6 - 4 D+ -6 D+ -3 D+ D+ C- C- -2 C- F+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 157 @Wright St. L 80 - 88 32% -9  7% 11 - 8 6 - 5 C- -5 B- +4 A- C F+ F+ -9 D- C D
 Fri, Jan 30 229 @Detroit Mercy L 77 - 90 47% -9  15% 11 - 9 6 - 6 D- -14 C- -1 D F+ B+ F -13 F F A
 Sun, Feb 1 171 @Oakland L 65 - 76 36% -2  34% 11 - 10 6 - 7 D -9 F -19 F F+ C+ A +11 A+ F A-
 Wed, Feb 4 210 Green Bay L 84 - 87 OT 65% -3  23% 11 - 11 6 - 8 D -9 D+ -3 B- F B+ D -5 C F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 274 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 67 - 62 76% +2  58% 12 - 11 7 - 8 C- -4 D- -6 D- C- D+ B- +3 C- C+ B
 Thu, Feb 12 327 @IU Indianapolis W 84 - 81 72% -6  13% 13 - 11 8 - 8 C- -5 C+ +2 B F+ D D- -7 D C- C-
 Wed, Feb 18 258 Purdue Fort Wayne W 87 - 71 74% +6  78% 14 - 11 9 - 8 B- +8 B +6 B+ F A- C+ +1 C- B B+
 Sun, Feb 22 217 @Youngstown St. L 58 - 64 45% -10  0% 14 - 12 9 - 9 D+ -6 F -20 F B- F A+ +13 B B+ A
 Wed, Feb 25 322 @Cleveland St. W 81 - 70 70% +14  97% 15 - 12 10 - 9 C+ +4 D -5 C- D+ F A +9 A+ F C-
 Sat, Feb 28 157 Wright St. L 91 - 92 54% +9  87% 15 - 13 10 - 10 C- -4 A +13 A- B A F -16 D+ F C-
 Wed, Mar 4 171 @Oakland W 85 - 84 36% +3  78% 16 - 13 C+ +3 C+ +3 D B+ A C -0 B F D
 Sun, Mar 8 210 Green Bay W 75 - 74 54%
Totals 17 - 13 10 - 10 -2 C- -1 A- D+ B C -1 D C- C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C+ D D D+ 40% 27% 46% B C- C C+ C C C C- C- C C C D+ C- 41% 19% 40% C- C- D F+ D- B D+ B C-
1.07 59% 34% 30% -3 +1 0.99 29% 1.1 .31 17% .30 71% .21 1.09 58% 39% 36% +1 0 1.05 33% 1.2 .39 19% .33 70% .21
Nov
8		 Tennessee D- C- C- F F+ 39% 12% 49% A- D C A+ A- F+ D F F F C F F F 37% 19% 44% C+ F+ D- C+ D+ C B- F C-
0.80 53% 33% 21% -12 +1 0.80 24% 1.3 .32 22% .24 38% .09 1.36 60% 60% 42% +10 0 1.22 52% 1.1 .55 17% .33 79% .26
Nov
12		 East Tennessee St. F D+ D- F F 38% 13% 49% C+ F B F F F D D+ D B D F F F 67% 12% 21% F F A+ A+ A+ A+ F B+ F
0.87 55% 29% 27% -8 +1 0.89 34% 0.4 .14 25% .26 71% .18 1.04 64% 60% 44% +10 +3 1.29 13% 0.7 .09 25% .50 70% .35
Nov
20		 Central Michigan A+ C- D+ A+ A- 37% 17% 46% C- B+ B- A+ A+ C+ F C- F A- D+ F A+ C+ 35% 28% 37% C+ C+ F F F A+ F A D
1.32 58% 33% 46% +7 0 1.17 39% 1.5 .61 16% .23 69% .16 0.97 60% 50% 25% -1 -1 0.98 39% 1.3 .52 28% .36 61% .22
Nov
24		 Eastern Kentucky D+ A+ F D- D- 27% 22% 51% D+ D- D A+ A C- C+ A+ A- B D F A C+ 16% 24% 59% B B- C- F+ D- B F+ A D+
1.15 79% 27% 31% +1 -1 1.02 28% 1.7 .47 15% .35 86% .30 1.00 63% 50% 28% -2 -2 0.94 32% 1.3 .41 20% .33 63% .21
Nov
26		 Wofford B A- F D+ C+ 55% 22% 24% C C C A+ B+ B+ A+ C- A+ D+ A- A+ F C+ 37% 26% 37% A B- D+ B- C C F D+ F
1.25 68% 27% 33% +3 +1 1.10 30% 1.4 .42 12% .52 76% .40 1.12 47% 25% 41% -4 -1 0.93 31% 0.9 .28 15% .68 74% .51
Nov
29		 Boston University C D+ F F F 29% 20% 51% D+ F A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ B- F B- D D- 37% 29% 34% A D D+ F+ D- A+ F C- F
1.19 54% 22% 26% -10 -1 0.80 50% 1.4 .69 18% .47 83% .39 1.04 79% 36% 38% +9 -1 1.18 29% 1.2 .33 26% .41 74% .30
Dec
3		 Cleveland St. B B B A+ B+ 37% 17% 46% C B+ A- A- A+ F D- A+ C D+ A+ A+ F F 29% 15% 56% C- F+ F F F A+ F D+ F
1.32 68% 44% 46% +13 0 1.29 44% 1.3 .56 20% .26 93% .24 1.12 42% 0% 57% +9 0 1.20 32% 1.4 .44 28% .54 79% .43
Dec
6		 Purdue Fort Wayne D C- D+ F+ F 30% 11% 59% C- F+ B- F D+ F B A+ A+ C+ C- F+ F F 48% 22% 30% C+ F F A+ B A+ F A- F
1.02 59% 33% 30% -4 +1 0.96 38% 0.9 .32 24% .31 94% .30 1.05 58% 45% 53% +10 +1 1.24 33% 0.5 .15 24% .38 64% .24
Dec
13		 Bellarmine D A B D+ C- 41% 17% 43% B- C D+ F F+ C+ D F F B+ C+ F F D 45% 10% 45% C- D+ F+ A+ C+ A+ B+ F C-
1.14 73% 44% 35% +8 +1 1.19 32% 0.9 .30 14% .28 47% .13 1.08 59% 60% 41% +7 +2 1.20 26% 0.9 .22 26% .25 100% .25
Dec
17		 Oakland D- A- F F F+ 40% 17% 43% B- D- C- D+ D+ B- D- B- D C B D+ C C+ 45% 22% 33% C C+ C- A+ B+ C- F A- F
1.06 70% 30% 24% -3 +1 0.97 33% 0.9 .30 14% .19 75% .14 1.13 52% 42% 33% -2 0 0.98 32% 0.8 .27 14% .46 69% .32
Dec
21		 College of Charleston D D+ B+ D+ C- 35% 14% 51% B+ C B F D+ F B+ A+ A+ D- C+ F C- F 43% 17% 39% D- F D+ D- D- A- F B+ F
1.00 56% 43% 31% -3 +1 0.98 36% 0.7 .26 23% .28 88% .25 1.15 60% 88% 33% +9 +1 1.22 32% 1.2 .39 20% .49 69% .34
Dec
29		 Robert Morris B- A- C F B- 58% 17% 25% B+ B F A D C- A+ C- A C+ C F B C- 31% 21% 48% C+ C- D F F B+ C- A+ B
1.12 68% 38% 25% +2 +2 1.10 18% 1.2 .21 17% .46 74% .34 1.09 56% 55% 32% +1 -1 1.04 39% 1.3 .53 21% .25 50% .13
Jan
1		 IU Indianapolis D+ F F A+ C 42% 8% 50% C+ C F A- D B+ B- F D C F D C+ D 15% 31% 54% A+ C- F+ F F A A- F B-
1.15 50% 0% 50% +5 +2 1.17 27% 1.3 .36 16% .42 60% .25 1.02 75% 44% 32% +3 -3 1.02 33% 1.3 .43 21% .11 100% .11
Jan
4		 Youngstown St. B D- B- A+ B- 54% 10% 37% A B+ C- A+ B+ C+ A+ B A+ C+ A B- B A 35% 15% 50% C+ A- B F+ C F F A+ C
1.20 54% 40% 47% +5 +3 1.17 30% 1.3 .40 18% .50 78% .39 1.01 48% 33% 30% -7 0 0.88 25% 1.2 .29 13% .34 57% .19
Jan
9		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee A+ B- A F F 39% 4% 57% B+ F+ A+ A A+ B D A C- C+ D C A+ B- 37% 20% 43% D+ C+ B- F D+ D+ F A+ D+
1.33 63% 50% 25% -5 +2 0.96 49% 1.4 .68 14% .29 81% .24 1.05 61% 40% 24% -5 0 0.92 29% 1.3 .37 14% .35 58% .20
Jan
11		 Green Bay A C- D B C 41% 12% 47% B+ C+ D+ F F+ A+ C+ B+ B F F B+ F F 46% 13% 41% D F F A- D- C- B+ A+ A
1.29 57% 33% 38% +2 +1 1.08 26% 0.9 .24 5% .35 80% .28 1.33 71% 33% 53% +17 +1 1.39 36% 0.9 .32 15% .29 67% .19
Jan
15		 Detroit Mercy A- B- A+ A+ A+ 51% 9% 40% A- A+ F+ A+ C B A+ C+ A+ A- A- B+ A A+ 24% 34% 42% C+ A C F F F A+ A+ A+
1.28 63% 60% 43% +10 +2 1.26 23% 1.4 .33 12% .47 74% .35 0.95 47% 33% 27% -9 -3 0.79 31% 1.3 .42 9% .13 33% .04
Jan
17		 Robert Morris D+ B F F D 48% 10% 41% A- D+ D+ D+ D+ C- A+ D+ A+ C- B+ A+ D- C+ 44% 7% 48% F C- C+ F F+ C+ F C+ F
1.06 64% 17% 25% -5 +2 0.97 26% 0.9 .24 17% .53 73% .38 1.09 50% 25% 38% -1 +2 1.04 34% 1.4 .47 19% .45 68% .31
Jan
24		 Wright St. B- A+ A+ F A 44% 20% 36% C+ A- D+ B- C F+ D+ D D F+ D- B F+ D- 51% 20% 29% D- D- F A C D F F+ F
1.14 77% 70% 22% +8 0 1.20 28% 1.1 .31 20% .28 69% .20 1.25 65% 33% 38% +5 +1 1.13 40% 0.9 .37 14% .60 81% .48
Jan
30		 Detroit Mercy C- C+ A+ F D- 32% 7% 61% B- D C F F+ B+ A F B- F C D+ F F 30% 26% 43% D- F F+ F F A F A+ F
1.09 61% 50% 26% -6 +1 0.93 32% 0.7 .23 11% .43 63% .27 1.28 57% 42% 60% +18 -1 1.35 38% 1.3 .48 21% .50 64% .32
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Oakland F F F F F 35% 10% 55% B+ F D- D- F+ C+ D- F F+ A A+ F A+ A+ 56% 15% 30% F A+ D+ F F A- F+ B D
0.85 50% 33% 21% -14 +1 0.76 28% 0.9 .24 14% .20 62% .12 1.00 37% 63% 19% -15 +2 0.76 33% 1.7 .56 18% .39 71% .27
Feb
4		 Green Bay D+ D+ A+ C C+ 40% 9% 51% A- B- D- F F B+ C- F D- D C+ A D C+ 47% 13% 40% D C F F F A+ D+ B- C-
1.11 57% 80% 34% +3 +2 1.12 24% 0.8 .19 11% .33 64% .21 1.15 56% 29% 38% 0 +2 1.06 39% 1.5 .58 23% .38 73% .27
Feb
7		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee D- C+ C+ F+ D- 31% 12% 57% C- D- D+ B C- D+ A+ C A+ B- B A+ F C 43% 17% 39% F+ C- A+ F C+ B B+ B B+
1.07 62% 40% 29% -3 +1 0.98 26% 1.3 .32 18% .45 74% .33 0.99 50% 25% 39% -3 +1 0.98 23% 1.4 .32 18% .21 64% .14
Feb
12		 IU Indianapolis C+ A- F A+ B+ 47% 16% 38% C- B C+ F F+ D A+ F A- D- B F F+ D 52% 24% 24% D- D F A+ C- C- F+ F F
1.19 71% 14% 47% +10 +1 1.24 38% 0.8 .32 21% .54 63% .34 1.15 54% 54% 38% +3 +1 1.09 42% 0.7 .31 16% .25 80% .20
Feb
18		 Purdue Fort Wayne B A F C+ B 52% 2% 46% A B+ D+ F F A- B F+ C+ C+ C+ A+ D+ C+ 45% 4% 51% F C- A- C- B B+ F F F
1.22 71% 0% 36% +8 +3 1.24 31% 0.7 .23 15% .32 68% .22 1.00 55% 0% 36% -2 +3 1.04 16% 1.0 .16 18% .38 77% .29
Feb
22		 Youngstown St. F F D+ F F 43% 6% 51% A F B+ C- B- F C- F F A+ D- A+ A B+ 41% 16% 43% C B B A- B+ A F A- F
0.78 32% 33% 23% -20 +2 0.67 37% 0.9 .35 24% .32 56% .18 0.87 67% 14% 26% -5 +1 0.93 25% 0.9 .22 24% .46 65% .30
Feb
25		 Cleveland St. D A+ F C- C- 33% 11% 57% B- C- F A+ D+ F A+ D+ A+ A B A+ A+ A+ 43% 13% 44% F+ A+ B F F C- D D- D-
1.12 80% 20% 35% +6 +1 1.15 24% 1.4 .34 19% .45 73% .33 0.97 52% 14% 21% -14 +1 0.76 21% 1.9 .38 17% .35 81% .28
Feb
28		 Wright St. A A+ A+ F B 54% 6% 41% A+ A- C- A+ B A C+ A B F F A+ F+ D+ 53% 23% 25% D D+ F F F C- D+ A C+
1.30 72% 67% 27% +5 +3 1.19 28% 1.3 .38 11% .32 80% .26 1.31 71% 8% 38% +2 +1 1.08 44% 2.0 .88 16% .34 65% .22
Mar
4		 Oakland C+ B- F F F+ 43% 8% 49% A D D- A+ B+ A A+ F A+ C B+ A C- B 35% 18% 47% C+ B D F F D A+ C A+
1.16 64% 25% 28% -3 +2 1.00 28% 1.5 .44 11% .46 60% .28 1.15 50% 27% 34% -4 0 0.94 34% 1.4 .48 12% .19 75% .14



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 100.0 100.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 100.0% 11.2% 11.2% 14.8 0.2 3.5 6.5 1.2 88.8
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 11.2% 11.2% 0.0% 14.8 88.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 11.2% 100.0% 14.8 1.3 31.0 57.4 10.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 13.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 17.9%
Lose Out 57.7%