Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.2#279
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#121
Pace69.3#155
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#248
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#289
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.0% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.6 14.2
.500 or above 10.0% 12.6% 3.3%
.500 or above in Conference 10.8% 12.9% 5.7%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 43.4% 39.0% 54.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.8% 1.0% 0.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Illinois (Home) - 71.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 33 - 93 - 17
Quad 46 - 510 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2025 322   Eastern Illinois W 71-65 71%    
  Nov 07, 2025 7   @ Kentucky L 62-90 1%    
  Nov 12, 2025 232   Nicholls St. W 72-71 53%    
  Nov 16, 2025 277   Bryant W 79-76 61%    
  Nov 19, 2025 222   @ Cleveland St. L 68-74 31%    
  Nov 26, 2025 305   Southern Indiana W 74-69 66%    
  Nov 29, 2025 281   Western Michigan W 74-71 61%    
  Dec 02, 2025 45   @ Marquette L 61-82 4%    
  Dec 13, 2025 119   UNC Wilmington L 68-74 31%    
  Dec 16, 2025 61   @ Northwestern L 59-77 6%    
  Dec 21, 2025 120   Murray St. L 70-76 31%    
  Dec 29, 2025 109   @ Northern Iowa L 63-76 13%    
  Jan 01, 2026 139   @ Southern Illinois L 67-77 19%    
  Jan 04, 2026 141   Illinois-Chicago L 72-76 36%    
  Jan 07, 2026 101   Illinois St. L 68-76 27%    
  Jan 10, 2026 120   @ Murray St. L 67-79 16%    
  Jan 13, 2026 106   @ Belmont L 70-83 13%    
  Jan 17, 2026 109   Northern Iowa L 66-73 28%    
  Jan 21, 2026 139   Southern Illinois L 70-74 36%    
  Jan 28, 2026 106   Belmont L 73-80 27%    
  Jan 31, 2026 209   @ Indiana St. L 76-83 30%    
  Feb 03, 2026 112   @ Bradley L 63-76 15%    
  Feb 06, 2026 234   Evansville W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 09, 2026 131   @ Drake L 60-71 18%    
  Feb 12, 2026 101   @ Illinois St. L 65-79 14%    
  Feb 15, 2026 209   Indiana St. L 79-80 48%    
  Feb 18, 2026 112   Bradley L 66-73 28%    
  Feb 21, 2026 141   @ Illinois-Chicago L 69-79 21%    
  Feb 25, 2026 131   Drake L 63-68 35%    
  Feb 28, 2026 234   @ Evansville L 67-72 34%    
Projected Record 9 - 21 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.3 2.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 2.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 2.6 2.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 6.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.7 3.0 0.9 0.1 10.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.5 5.2 3.6 0.9 0.1 14.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 3.6 6.1 6.4 3.7 0.9 0.1 21.9 10th
11th 2.6 6.0 8.5 8.2 5.3 2.3 0.5 0.1 33.5 11th
Total 2.6 6.1 9.6 11.9 12.4 12.7 11.3 9.4 7.2 5.9 4.1 2.7 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 73.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-5 38.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 17.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 5.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.2% 29.4% 29.4% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.3% 6.7% 6.7% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-6 0.6% 18.9% 18.9% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5
13-7 1.1% 7.7% 7.7% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
12-8 1.8% 7.8% 7.8% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.7
11-9 2.7% 4.3% 4.3% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.5
10-10 4.1% 1.9% 1.9% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0
9-11 5.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8
8-12 7.2% 0.6% 0.6% 17.8 0.0 0.0 7.2
7-13 9.4% 0.5% 0.5% 19.6 0.1 9.4
6-14 11.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.3
5-15 12.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.6
4-16 12.4% 12.4
3-17 11.9% 11.9
2-18 9.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.6
1-19 6.1% 6.1
0-20 2.6% 2.6
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 13.9 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%